RADIO
Pierre Camus examines the trend of increasing complete games and no-hitters early in the 2021 MLB season and how it impacts fantasy baseball strategy.
Headlines in the baseball world recently have by and large pertained to the multiple instances of no-hitters early in the 2021 season. This is usually accompanied by a lamentation of how offense is down and batters are struggling to generate excitement in this new live-ball era. But what's the fantasy spin?
Face it, no-hitters are exciting because they are rare but they usually don't do much for us in the fantasy world. Many of these performances come out of nowhere, so the pitcher in question wasn't even rostered. If you did have that pitcher in your lineup, it may help your ratios but it's not a real game-changer over the course of a long season. In 2020, NL Rookie of the Year Devin Williams only allowed one ER all season. After giving up a run to Pittsburgh on July 27, he pitched 24 straight scoreless innings and could have gone longer had the season not ended. He was dominant in reality but only modestly helpful in fantasy because he only pitched a total of 27 innings and didn't register a single save. Plus, there's the fact he wasn't on fantasy rosters until August at the earliest.
No-hitters are a situation where reality exceeds fantasy, a situation we discussed a couple of weeks ago with certain players. They may not matter, but they are inextricably tied to something that is relevant to us - complete games. They don't always end up in perfection or even as shutouts, but they are a coveted asset nonetheless because they show a manager's confidence in allowing a pitcher to go the distance in a time when restricted pitch counts and bullpen games are becoming the norm.
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No Hits, No Runs, No Problem
It started on April 9, 2021, barely a week into the new season. Joe Musgrove made Pirates fans cry (harder than usual) by displaying his newfound dominant form for San Diego by no-hitting the Rangers. Of the 40 officially recognized April no-hitters in MLB history, it was the fifth-earliest in a season; Ken Forsch, Jack Morris, Kent Mercker, and Hideo Nomo beat him to the punch.
Then came Carlos Rodon, who has risen from the ashes like a phoenix. It was definitely no fluke seeing as how the man hasn't allowed more than one run or five hits in a single game this season over his first five starts. It's just shocking to see a player who totaled 42 1/3 innings pitched from 2019-2020 and has suffered a slew of shoulder/elbow/biceps injuries in his career go the distance when he barely saw the mound a year ago.
John Means did the unthinkable by making us regret not rostering an Orioles pitcher. He became the fourth individual O's pitcher to throw a no-no, with Hall of Famer Jim Palmer being the last. He also became the first Baltimore pitcher to earn AL Player of the Week honors since 1994.
Then came Wade Miley, a career journeyman with a 4.18 lifetime ERA who is on his seventh team in the past seven seasons. A pitcher whose fastball ranks in the first percentile (this is bad) in velocity at 89 MPH.
Wade Miley throws his first career no-hitter against the Indians.
John Means' no-hitter was just 2 days ago.
That is the shortest span between no-hitters since June 29, 1990, when Dave Stewart and Fernando Valenzuela both threw no-hitters on the same day. pic.twitter.com/2VmnuaaXnO
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 8, 2021
Although it doesn't count, Madison Bumgarner's seven-inning variety was yet another complete game shutout that came with no hits attached.
Why is this happening??? Maybe we can simply blame Cleveland's offense.
BREAKING: Wade Miley has thrown the 17th no-hitter in #Reds history.
It is the second time the #Indians have been no-hit this season (Carlos Rodón). pic.twitter.com/QaSk4gHumQ
— Today in MLB (@TodayintheMLB) May 8, 2021
Are they 29th in team batting average because they've been no-hit twice or were they no-hit twice because they are 29th in team batting average? 
Just last night, the Indians nearly turned the table when Zach Plesac took a no-hitter into the eighth inning before giving up a single and a homer. It looks like the run of no-hit bids might not be finished yet. But as fantasy managers, should we really care?
Perception vs Reality
So we've had a few no-hitters a month into the season. Could be luck, could be the weather, could be this dead ball we're hearing about. But are no-hitters and complete games really increasing?
Believe me, I'd be the last person to inject "fake news" into the conversation, especially when it could be so easily disproved. Complete games are up this season but that trend actually began two years ago.
In 2018, the rate of complete games fell to an all-time low of 0.86%, which is when we started lamenting the death of the ace, and fantasy managers started fading SP in rounds one and two. It's slowly creeping up again. While 2020 continues to be an aberration in every way, the fact that 2021 is continuing the trend means there could be something to it.
| Season | CG % |
| 2000 | 4.82% |
| 2001 | 4.10% |
| 2002 | 4.41% |
| 2003 | 4.30% |
| 2004 | 3.09% |
| 2005 | 3.89% |
| 2006 | 2.96% |
| 2007 | 2.30% |
| 2008 | 2.80% |
| 2009 | 3.13% |
| 2010 | 3.40% |
| 2011 | 3.56% |
| 2012 | 2.63% |
| 2013 | 2.55% |
| 2014 | 2.43% |
| 2015 | 2.14% |
| 2016 | 1.71% |
| 2017 | 1.21% |
| 2018 | 0.86% |
| 2019 | 0.93% |
| 2020 | 1.61% |
| 2021 | 1.76% |
But how could this be? I thought complete games didn't exist anymore!
As a wise man named Grand Puba once said, what goes around comes around. Perhaps the fact that so many relievers are used more frequently has led managers to give their bullpen a night off once in a while. If a starter is dealing, why not let him go the length and keep your pen fresh for the next night?
So more pitchers are being allowed to finish what they started but this speaks to the larger theme of offense being down in 2021. Not to beat a dead horse but we see that strikeouts continue to rise and ERA is down nearly half a run from 2019.
| Season | IP | CG | SHO | K/9 | K/BB | SwStr% | CSW% | ERA |
| 2002 | 43269 | 214 | 87 | 6.5 | 1.93 | 9.6% | 26.0% | 4.28 |
| 2003 | 43335 | 209 | 72 | 6.4 | 1.94 | 9.5% | 26.4% | 4.41 |
| 2004 | 43394 | 150 | 69 | 6.6 | 1.96 | 9.1% | 25.9% | 4.46 |
| 2005 | 43232.1 | 189 | 63 | 6.3 | 2.02 | 8.8% | 25.9% | 4.29 |
| 2006 | 43258 | 144 | 63 | 6.5 | 2.00 | 8.6% | 25.5% | 4.53 |
| 2007 | 43425.2 | 112 | 43 | 6.6 | 2.00 | 8.7% | 25.7% | 4.47 |
| 2008 | 43357.2 | 136 | 54 | 6.8 | 2.01 | 8.7% | 25.7% | 4.32 |
| 2009 | 43272 | 152 | 63 | 6.9 | 2.02 | 8.7% | 26.2% | 4.32 |
| 2010 | 43305.1 | 165 | 59 | 7.1 | 2.17 | 8.6% | 26.4% | 4.08 |
| 2011 | 43527.1 | 173 | 75 | 7.1 | 2.30 | 8.8% | 26.3% | 3.94 |
| 2012 | 43355.1 | 128 | 69 | 7.5 | 2.48 | 9.2% | 26.9% | 4.01 |
| 2013 | 43653.1 | 124 | 57 | 7.5 | 2.51 | 9.4% | 26.9% | 3.87 |
| 2014 | 43613.2 | 118 | 65 | 7.7 | 2.67 | 9.5% | 27.1% | 3.74 |
| 2015 | 43407.2 | 104 | 51 | 7.7 | 2.66 | 9.9% | 26.8% | 3.96 |
| 2016 | 43306.1 | 83 | 36 | 8.1 | 2.58 | 10.1% | 27.0% | 4.19 |
| 2017 | 43257 | 59 | 27 | 8.3 | 2.53 | 10.5% | 27.2% | 4.36 |
| 2018 | 43489 | 42 | 19 | 8.5 | 2.63 | 10.7% | 27.6% | 4.15 |
| 2019 | 43423.1 | 45 | 26 | 8.8 | 2.69 | 11.2% | 27.6% | 4.51 |
| 2020 | 15468.2 | 29 | 12 | 9.0 | 2.56 | 11.4% | 28.2% | 4.45 |
| 2021 | 9481 | 19 | 13 | 9.2 | 2.71 | 11.5% | 28.3% | 4.02 |
League-wide SIERA is also at 3.90, the lowest point since 2014. Deader ball? Players not amped up for a full season yet? COVID after-effects? No speculation here, just stating the facts.
Fantasy Takeaway
Does throwing a complete game inherently make a pitcher more valuable? Yes and no.
Much like a no-hitter, the act itself doesn't do anything special for fantasy teams unless you play in a points league with heavy bonuses for CG and SHO or happen to play in an expanded roto league that uses it as a category. I did that once and it was really aggravating to have the standings in a roto league partially determined by a category where a total of two events earns you second place. We also had grand slams as a category, if you can believe it. I'm not in that league anymore.
Where the CG leaderboard can help is by correlating it to the IP leaders to find pitchers who are functioning as workhorses.
| Name | Team | GS | IP | CG | W | ERA | K% |
| Zack Wheeler | PHI | 8 | 53.2 | 1 | 3 | 2.85 | 26.7% |
| John Means | BAL | 8 | 52 | 1 | 4 | 1.21 | 28.0% |
| Trevor Bauer | LAD | 8 | 50.1 | 1 | 3 | 2.50 | 34.7% |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 8 | 47.2 | 1 | 3 | 3.59 | 27.3% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | SFG | 8 | 46.1 | 1 | 3 | 2.14 | 22.9% |
| Max Scherzer | WSN | 7 | 46.1 | 1 | 2 | 2.33 | 35.5% |
| Madison Bumgarner | ARI | 8 | 43.2 | 1 | 4 | 4.12 | 27.5% |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 8 | 43 | 1 | 3 | 4.40 | 24.9% |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 7 | 42.2 | 1 | 2 | 3.80 | 23.5% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 6 | 40 | 1 | 3 | 0.68 | 46.1% |
| German Marquez | COL | 8 | 39.1 | 1 | 1 | 5.49 | 22.2% |
| Joe Musgrove | SDP | 7 | 39 | 1 | 2 | 3.00 | 34.8% |
| Casey Mize | DET | 7 | 38.2 | 1 | 2 | 4.19 | 16.5% |
| Wade Miley | CIN | 6 | 36 | 1 | 4 | 2.00 | 19.7% |
| Dylan Cease | CHW | 7 | 35.1 | 1 | 2 | 2.80 | 31.8% |
| Lance Lynn | CHW | 6 | 34.2 | 1 | 4 | 1.30 | 31.2% |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 7 | 34.2 | 1 | 2 | 6.23 | 18.2% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 5 | 31 | 1 | 5 | 0.58 | 37.3% |
| Zac Gallen | ARI | 5 | 26.2 | 1 | 1 | 3.04 | 27.8% |
What else stands out is the fact that three White Sox have thrown a complete game already, as well as two Diamondbacks and two Phillies. Leave it to good ol' Tony La Russa to take the game back to the 90s.
This has a long-term domino effect on the relief pitchers you may consider using in deeper leagues. Despite an embarrassment of riches with young arms like Garret Crochet, Aaron Bummer, Codi Heuer, and Zack Burdi, no RP on the south side is worth rostering aside from Liam Hendriks and Michael Kopech. It also should instill confidence in the starting rotation, as we know Dylan Cease's stock is going up. He didn't reach the five-inning mark in any of his first four starts but has averaged six IP in each of his last three outings.
Although he doesn't have a CG yet, Zach Eflin is fifth in total innings pitched and along with Nola and Wheeler prove that Philadelphia starters will be depended on as much as possible.
There have been 19 pitchers to toss a complete game so far in 2021 but none have done it a second time yet. It may be a while before Jacob deGrom gets stretched that far and Zac Gallen just hit the IL again so the smart money is on Max Scherzer, Trevor Bauer, or Lance Lynn. Shane Bieber and Gerrit Cole surprisingly do not have one to their name yet.
Among IP leaders, Brandon Woodruff and Yu Darvish also stand out as pitchers yet to finish a full game. Those players are universally owned but guys like Anthony DeSclafani, Kyle Gibson, and... Mike Foltynewicz(?!) are not. I'll stop just short of recommending Danny Duffy, Matthew Boyd, and Tyler Anderson for fear of imminent implosion but they are among the innings leaders and looking sharp early on, even if the strikeout rates aren't overwhelming. In this case, volume trumps ratios because the year-end totals are all that matter.
On the other end, some teams will not see starters push beyond the fifth frame much, if ever. Looking at the top 120 innings leaders, you'll notice which teams populate the top and bottom.
| Team | Pitchers > 28 IP |
| BOS, CHC, CHW, COL, HOU, KC, NYY, OAK, SEA, SF, TB, TEX | 5 |
| BAL, CIN, LAD, MIL, MIN, PHI, STL, WAS | 4 |
| ATL, ARI, CLE, DET, NYM, PIT, TOR | 3 |
| LAA | 2 |
Not that you had any reason to trust Angels' starters anyway...
It's curious that Arizona is on there when MadBum and Gallen already have a CG under their belt but injuries are to blame there.
It's still early in this marathon but we're starting to get a sense of which direction teams are generally going with their pitching staff. Use this to your advantage.
Final Word
The no-hitter is sexy but has no correlation with future fantasy success. A complete game is far less sexy and also doesn't tie directly into roto production but it leads us to the simple but telling metric of innings pitched per start. Some managers are more than willing to push starters to their limit while others refuse.
The phrase "innings eater" doesn't carry as positive a connotation in fantasy as it does to a Major League team but they can be valuable nonetheless.
P.S. - For those who want to point out that it should be "in vogue" rather than "en vogue," let's get a few things straight. First, even though I'm 100% American, grew up in South Florida (born and raised in the County of Dade), and now live in South Texas, my name is as French as it gets, so I can take the liberty to put some panache whenever deemed necessary.
Second, it's a lot catchier. As always, the Urban Dictionary explains it best: "To evoke a sense or flair of French chic, many use the whole French phrase—en vogue. This is unnecessary but a common way to put on airs," I have no problem putting on airs these days. YOLO
Finally, I always loved the music group En Vogue growing up. Especially the music videos. Thank you for doing something worthwhile, VH1.
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