NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/18): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft NHL DFS value plays and research for March 18th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Thursday, March 18th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/18

• • Nashville Predators vs. Florida Panthers (-205) - 6.5U
  • Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-195) - 5.5U
  • Pittsburgh Penguins (-170) vs. New Jersey Devils - 5.5O
  • Philadelphia Flyers vs. New York Islanders (-130) - 5.5U
  • Chicago Blackhawks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-250) - 6U
  • Boston Bruins (-270) vs. Buffalo Sabres - 5.5U
  • Dallas Stars (-185) vs. Detroit Red Wings - 5.5U
  • Winnipeg Jets vs. Edmonton Oilers (-135) - 6.5U
  • Minnesota Wild vs. Colorado Avalanche (-160) - 5.5U
  • Arizona Coyotes (-135) vs. Anaheim Ducks - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Aleksander Barkov, FLA ($7,700 DK / $7,400 FD) - While there are some other higher-priced options on the slate, Barkov is one that can't be ignored. Barkov has scored four goals over his last three games played and has generated eight total points in four games against the Predators this season.
• Mark Scheifele, WPG ($6,200 DK / $7,600 FD) - Scheifele is having a great season as he has recorded 37 points in just 29 games this year and remains to be one of the more under-valued centers from a DFS perspective. Scheifele has notched two goals and four assists in four games against Edmonton this year and is always good for a multi-point night which makes him viable in tournament formats.
• Pierre-Luc Dubois, WPG ($3,700 DK / $5,100 FD) - If you choose to not pay up for the Jets top-line center in Scheifele, you can slide on down to Dubois who is coming off of a big-time game where he recorded three assists while taking three shots on goal while also blocking three shots.

Other centers to consider: McDavid, MacKinnon, Bergeron, Crosby, Pavelski, Barzal, Schmaltz, Pageau, Roslovic, Krejci, Wennberg, Rask

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• David Pastrnak, COL ($9,000 DK / $8,400 FD) - Pastrnak looks to be in one of the best matchups of the entire slate against Buffalo. He is averaging four shots on goal over his last four games and has scored three points over that four-game span.
• Kyle Connor, WPG ($5,700 DK / $6,900 FD) - The pricing has come down on Connor since the start of the season but he is heating up again over his last five games. Connor has netted two goals in back-to-back games and has generated six points over his last five games.
• Philipp Kurashev, CHI ($2,700 DK / $3,400 FD) - While rostering Kurashev isn't the safest move, as long as he continues to see time skating in between Kane and DeBrincat he always has point-scoring upside. Kurashev is averaging three shots per game over his last two and is coming off of a goal against the Panthers.

Other wings to consider: Draisaitl, Rantanen, Kane, Forsberg, Hornqvist, Huberdeau, Ehlers, Niederreiter, Benn, Bjorkstrand, Necas, Burakovsky, Kapanen, Duclair, Saad, Stastny, Parise, Wahlstrom

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Doug Hamilton, CAR ($7,200 DK / $6,400 FD) - Hamilton continues to be a steady presence for the Canes and has extended his point-scoring streak to nine games. During this stretch, Hamilton has generated 11 points and has scored double-digit DK points in seven of those nine games.
• Matt Grzelcyk, BOS ($5,000 DK / $4,100 FD) - Grzelcyk has really been in good form lately as he has scored a point in three of his last four games and has taken 15 shots over his last four games played. He has benefited from sliding up to the top defensive line pairing while also quarterbacking the top Bruins power-play unit.
• Ivan Provorov, PHI ($4,300 DK / $5,300 FD) - The Flyers are coming off of their worst game of the season as they got blanked 9-0 by the Rangers but Ivan Provorov was only on the ice for one of those goals allowed. Provorov sees a huge amount of ice time as he is seeing over 25 minutes per game and is able to rack up peripherals which is ideal for your cash game builds.

Other defensemen to consider: Hedman, Letang, Chychrun, Barrie, Nurse, Ekblad, Klingberg, Ekholm, Jones, Pionk, Spurgeon, Morrissey, Leddy, Cernak, Suter, Russell, Carrier

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Philipp Grubauer, COL ($8,500 DK / $8,400 FD) - The Avs have a tough test ahead of them as the Wild are playing some of their best hockey of the season right now but if Grubauer draws the start for Colorado, it will be hard to not consider him in all formats. Grubauer is 16-7 on the year with a 1.85 goals allowed average and a .925 save percentage and is 2-1 against the Wild this season. In the three games that he has faced Minnesota, Grubauer has allowed a total of seven goals and has stopped 65 of 72 total shots that he has faced.
• James Reimer, CAR ($8,400 DK / $8,100 FD) - Columbus can be a tricky team to roster a goalie against so this is not the safest goalie play on the slate. Reimer has allowed eight goals in just two games against the Blue Jackets but has somehow come away with two victories. Reimer has played well this year as he is 12-4 with a 2.74 goals allowed average while carrying a .907 save percentage. With the Canes having a home-ice advantage, it does benefit Reimer as he is 6-1 on home ice and sports a 2.29 goals allowed average when tending the net at home.
• Sergei Bobrovsky, FLA ($8,200 DK / $8,000 FD) - The Panthers are one of the larger Vegas favorites on the night and if Bobrovsky gets the start in net, he is certainly viable in all formats. Bobrovsky is 6-1 on home ice and is 12-2-2 on the year. While his goal allowed average is hovering close to the 3.00 mark, he sees a good amount of shots which helps make up for his high goals allowed number. Bobrovsky has stopped 94 of 106 total shots faced against the Predators this season and could be one of the higher-ceiling goalie options on the entire slate.

Other goalies to consider: Jarry, Halak, Hill, Khudobin

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks 

• BOS 1
  • Marchand/ Bergeron/ Pastrnak (Grzelcyk, d-men add on)
    • The top line for the bruins looks to be in a great spot against a Sabres team that is just having an awful year all-around. Buffalo is allowing 3.39 goals per game which is the fourth-worst rate in the league and will go up against one of the toughest lines in all of hockey which is the Boston top line. This line is sporting an expected goals scored rate of 2.54 per 60 minutes of ice time together while generating 29.86 scoring chances and 11.27 high danger chances per 60. While the Sabres have the home-ice line matching advantage, the top bruins line should dominate the puck possession throughout the game and come up with a good amount of scoring chances tonight.
• ARI 1
  • Keller/ Schmaltz/ Pitlick (Chychrun, d-men add on) 
    • The top lines for the Coyotes play at a very good pace and could be used as solid secondary stack if choosing to spend up for a higher-priced stack on this slate. While they only have 13 minutes of ice time together this year, they have a 3.54 expected goals for rate and are generating 36.54 scoring chances for and 18.2 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. While this line doesn't fully correlate at even strength and on the power play, they can be broken up into mini stacks as Keller and Chychrun skate together on the top line and top power-play unit while Schmaltz and Pitlick skate together on the top line and second power-play unit.
• FLA 1
  • Verhaeghe/ Barkov/ Duclair (Ekblad, d-men add on)
    • The top line for the Panthers has been reunited and they are once again a top even-strength line stack to consider on this slate. They have skated with one another for over 200 minutes this year and are sporting a 3.47 expected goals for rate while generating 35.63 scoring chances for and 16.12 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. This line has dominated Nashville this year as they have a 4.02 expected goals for rate per60 in 23 minutes of ice time. Throughout those 23 minutes, this line has produced 19 scoring chances and 7 high danger opportunities against the Predators and there is no reason to think this success can't continue tonight.

Other Stacks to consider: PIT 1, NYI 1, EDM 1, DAL 1, WPG 2, TBL 2, 

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C: MacKinnon (1.25X), Point (1.4X), Bergeron (1.45X), Barkov (1.7X)

W: Pastrnak (1.15X), Wheeler (1.3X), Marchand (1.45X), Rantanen (1.6X)

D: Hedman (1.1X), Hamilton (1.25X), Provorov (1.5X), Ekblad (1.7X)

G: Driedger (1.2X), Halak (1.3X), Khudobin (1.45X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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