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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 22: Brunson vs. Holland on 03/20/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Last pit-stop before we get to the much anticipated UFC 260 in which Miocic and Ngannou will face each other for the second time and fight for the HW belt. But let's not get ahead of ourselves, and focus on what comes next, which is another trip to the UFC Apex for the 22nd Vegas edition of the Ultimate Fighting Championship. This is the seventh event in a row that will take place in the complex, but we can't complain. Do you prefer this closed facility or no events at all? I have a clear answer to that question, folks.
There will be no gold making it to the Octagon this Saturday in which is a super-top-heavy card only featuring contenders in the main event of the evening. No. 10 MW Kevin Holland and no. 7 Derek Brunson headline Vegas 22 and both will try and keep building their resumes on their way to a title shot. Before that, we'll have five more fights including both men and women divisions, and I'm covering three of them along with the headliner next.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy MMA, UFC lineup picks for DraftKings for UFC Vegas 22: Brunson vs. Holland on 03/20/21. You can check out our FanDuel MMA DFS picks as well. These DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced fighters and value picks on DraftKings. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kevin Holland, $8400 - vs. Derek Brunson
For the main event of the main card, this is definitely not the flashiest of fights. Even then, though, both guys come into this one as top-10 fighters in the MW ranks, so at least there is that. That being said, the truth is that Holland and Brunson keep fighting for a title shot, and it is not that they are precisely newcomers or taking their first steps in their careers...
Brunson is the veteran of the two. He debuted all the way back in 2013, has fought a total of 17 times already, and is currently boasting a 12-5 record in the UFC. That's not bad, even more considering his last couple of losses came on back-to-back fights in 2018 and that he has won the three bouts he's been part of since, two in 2019 and the other one last August. Brunson's last loss came against reigning champ Israel Adesanya, which one can forgive him for.
Holland has 10 fights under his belt but all of them happened from Aug. 2018 on, which is an insane pace. He is 7-3 and comes from two straight victories in October and December of 2020. His last one, against Jacare Souza, was an impressive two-minute KO precisely facing one of the last men to defeat Brunson. This not A beats B, B beats C, therefore A beats C, but I'm going that way for Saturday betting on Holland.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Gregor Gillespie, $9000 - vs. Brad Riddell
I love this fight on paper. See, Gillespie looked the part of a champ for his first six fights... until he hit the wall that goes by the name of Kevin Lee at the end of 2019. Gillespie has not fought in the UFC since then, and that loss meant an immaculate 6-0 record turned into a 6-1 by the end of that year. That loss, too, came via a three-minute KO in which all Gillespie could do was land 9 of 46 attempted SS. Rebounding is the challenge for Gregor.
Riddell, on the other hand, is following Gillespie's baby steps in the promo as he has been able to string three Ws in his first three fights, all of them by decision. That's the main difference between these two. Gillespie's wins came via KO (x3) and sub (x2) more times than via decision (only in his debut) and he has never reached a third round other than in his first fight. Riddell has spent all possible 45 minutes of fighting time active, with no early stoppages to his name.
Both men can deal with the mat, but it's Gillespie who clearly has the edge there actively looking for takedowns on a fight-to-fight basis. The striking volume might favor Riddell, but Gillespie is expensive as hell for a reason. He's reached 100 FP in all of his Ws, which is an insane production, and although he relies on KO/sub bonus points, even removing them from the final tallies he has gotten he'd still be averaging a nice 55+ fantasy points in that span. Must-play.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Tai Tuivasa, $8900 - vs. Don'Tale Mayes
Quite the drop in terms of talent here from the previous two analyses, although the card will run in reverse order to this column so I guess that's good. Tai Tuivasa looked good in his first three fights, score himself a couple of KOs and a decision, and then absolutely bombed with a 1-3 record in his next and last four fights. He came back to the W column in his last one after KO'ing Stefan Struve last October, but he had been mauled prior to that in all possible ways with all of a KO, sub, and decision loss the span of a year.
Mayes has only three fights in a UFC octagon and is pretty much fighting for half of his life in the promo. He dropped his first couple of outings, bot via submission, and finally found a way to get a W in his last bout though it took him all 15 minutes of regulation to get there against Roque Martinez last November.
These two are the prototypical HWs, don't give a dam about takedowns, and all they do is throwing strikes on the other side of the octagon. This will come down to whoever ends getting the W, full stop. There is not much science to it, and that makes both fighters quite risky bets. At least Tai has three KO victories in his log, so I guess it makes sense to follow the algorithm thinking process and pay for him if you're forced to put any of these two in your lineup for some reason.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Song Kenan, $7700 - vs. Max Griffin
These two will get into the ring while viewed as a close pair of fighters, at least given their winning probabilities and lines by Vegas. Anyways, the interesting thing for me here is how Song Kenan is the dog all things considered, yet how I see him getting away with victory come Saturday. Kenan is 4-1 in the UFC and has three KOs to his name already, while he has won and lost via decision once each in his career under the banner.
Griffin, while coming into this one after getting a KO win against Ramiz Grahimaj back in November, had dropped two prior to that and is 3-5 since 2017. All of those eight fights, with the exception of the last one, went the distance and to the judges' decision. Even his KO took him 12 minutes to happen.
Stats paint a brighter picture of Griffin, truth be told, as he is more active on both striking and grappling. The problem, though, comes with Kenan's power and finishing-prowess. This man has needed just 15, 17, 32, and 14 landed SS in the fights he finished via KO. That's insane and what is leading me to bet on him for this weekend affair.
