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Michael Florio names hitters he is targeting in 2021 fantasy baseball drafts and explains why you should be doing the same. These players could be breakout performers or are great values based on ADP.
Every year, one of the articles I look most forward to writing is about the players I am targeting in my drafts. It not only allows me to talk about the players I know I am high on and go into my drafts hoping to select, but it also forces me to look over my completed drafts and realize that I may be more in on some players than I originally thought. These are all players that I have drafted in multiple leagues and will continue to draft throughout draft season.
The 60-game 2020 season is impacting strategy and approaches heading into this season. My approach was impacted as well. You will notice many of the hitters I am targeting are coming off of a down 2020 season, and that is by design. My thinking is that 60 games is a small sample. One that I am not willing to hold too much against players. We have seen players have bad first halves, only to bounce back and return value in the second half, think of Jose Ramirez a couple of seasons ago. But players this past season did not have time to right the wrongs of a slow start. Any player that took a couple of weeks to adjust to the strange conditions of the 2020 season, or that just simply slumped for a stretch as we see players do in any season, did not have the usual time to adjust. I am not ready to write off a lot of these hitters and in fact, I am willing to buy them at a discount in 2021.
Many of these players are hitters I was targeting in my 2020 drafts as well, but some are players I have never rostered before and am now excited too. Let’s get into my 2021 hitter targets!
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Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves
Ozuna was a player that I simply thought was very unlucky in 2019. I wrote about it for RotoBaller last season, but even in an unlucky year, he posted 29 homers, 80 runs, 89 RBI and 12 stolen bases. Then last year in 60 games he hit 18 homes, drove in 56 RBI, and had positive luck with the BABIP, increasing his average to .338 and the OBP to .431.
In the past two seasons combined he ranks 21st in home runs (47) and 12th in RBI (145). Those are the categories you can rely on him the most, but he showed he can provide average – maybe not what he gave you last year but .280 is a very realistic expectation. He also stole 12 bases just two years ago and is a safe bet to give you over 80 runs in the Braves lineup. He is a hitter I often target in the end of the third round.
Austin Meadows, Tampa Bay Rays
THis is a hitter that I have been targeting and ended up walking away from both Tout Wars Draft and Hold and The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI) with him in the sixth round of each. Meadows is the perfect player to give a pass for a down 2020 season. He dealt with COVID just before the season and was forced to miss some time. He struggled out the gate and then suffered an oblique injury in season. His end-of-season numbers were brutal, but two years ago, when he was healthy, he was a good fantasy asset.
In 2019, he broke out with 33 homers, 89 RBI, 83 runs and 12 stolen bases, while hitting .291. And projections seem to be overlooking his down 2020 season as well. ATC projections – which has been the most accurate projection system two years in a row – have him for 25 homers, 11 steals, with over 75 runs and RBIs. Rays manager Kevin Cash has been talking up Meadows this spring and he has played well this spring with three homers already. I love him in the sixth round, but he is starting to climb.
Yordan Alvarez, Yordan Alvarez
Alvarez only appeared in two games in all of 2020 before having his season cut short due to knee surgery. A lot went wrong for the Houston Astros in 2020, but Alvarez missing basically the entire season was at the top of the list. But this was a player who you had to draft in the first three rounds of 2020 drafts after he posted 27 homers and 78 RBI in 87 games as a rookie in 2019. That was after he came with a ton of hype for putting up video game-like numbers in the minors.
He will never give you speed, but he has the chance to be a four-category contributor, especially with the power. In 2019 he had a max exit velocity of 117.9, with a 13.4-degree launch angle and a barrel rate of 16.3 percent. He is going to crush plenty of baseballs if he is healthy. I understand the health risk that he and his knee bring, but I am expecting him to only play DH, which eases those concerns a bit. I am willing to take the upside shot on a player that could once again be an early-round pick next season. I like him in the fifth round or later.
Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
Somehow, I have never had Bryant in fantasy before. He was in high demand since he was even called up to the bigs. Well, that was until this draft season. I was able to end up with Kris Bryant in the 10th round of my TGFBI draft. Look, there’s no way to deny Bryant was a big letdown last year. He had just four homers, 11 RBI, no steals and hit .206 in 34 games. But, is a 34-game sample size really enough to drop him that far?
Let’s not forget that he hit 31 homers in 2019 with a .282 average. He let down in 2018 as well but was dealing with a shoulder injury then. To me, that is part of the narrative driving down his price. It’s easy to look and say he has struggled in two of the past three seasons. But he has been awesome in the four seasons he has been healthy. Bryant is the cheapest he’s ever been in drafts and I am willing to be on the upside at a reduced cost.
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
Marte was one of my favorite players heading into the 2020 fantasy baseball season. In the 2019 season, Marte made huge jumps in his stat cast metrics. In fact, he was either the largest gainer or towards the top in increased exit velocity, launch angle and barrel rate from 2018 to 2019.
He looked like he was finally taking advantage of his raw power that scouts raved about as he hit 32 homers with a .329 average and .389 OBP. He also contributed 97 runs, 92 RBI and 10 steals, showing that he can be a five-category contributor. It all went downhill last season as he hit just two homers in 45 games. But he was dealing with a wrist injury that really sapped his power.
Now, you can get him even later than you could a year ago, but I still fully believe he comes with that five-category upside, especially with the power, as he has been crushing the ball this spring. Marte is a polarizing player, which just means a suppressed price for believers.
Jorge Soler, Kansas City Royals
Soler is a hitter that I like to target when I am feeling a little light on power. I was able to nab him in the 10th round of Tout Wars draft and felt very good about it. Soler hit 48 homers with 117 RBI and a .265 average. In 2020 he hit just eight homers in 43 games, but his exit velocity and launch angle were literally the same in 2020 as it was in 2019.
And is barrel rate climbed from 16.3 percent, to 18.5 percent. That leads me to believe that the power he showed in 2019 is real. Will he hit close to 50 homers again? Likely not. But I think he is a very safe bet to hit 30-35 if he stays healthy, but 40-plus is very much so in the realm of possibilities.
Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs
Ideally, I like to take Happ as my OF4, like I did in the end of the 11th round in TGFBI. Happ was once a prospect that came with a lot of hype, but inconsistent playing time and prevented Happ from living up to those expectations. But he showed last year that given the opportunity, he can be a productive bat in the bigs. He hit 12 homers with a .258 average and 28 RBI. He gets compared to Michael Conforto for fantasy baseball purposes and I can see why.
ATC projections currently have Happ for 26 homers, 72 RBI, 77 runs, six steals and a .245 batting average. They have Conforto projected for 29 homers, 89 runs, 87 RBI, seven steals and a .264 batting average. Conforto is better, but Happ comes with a five-round discount. I am all about that this season.
Aaron Hicks, New York Yankees
Hicks is one of my favorite outfielders this year. I mean, the guy is currently projected to hit third for the Yankees, sandwiched between Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, yet he is going outside the first 15 rounds on average. And, that is even with his ADP climbing as of late. In early drafts, I would get him around the 20th round. Hicks is now two years removed from that 27 homer, 11 stolen base, 90 run season, but I will keep chasing it as long as the price is suppressed.
Where I especially like Hicks is in points leagues that reward points for walks and deduct for strikeouts, or in OBP Roto leagues. Last season Hicks walked more than he struck out and he has posted an OBP of .366 or higher in three of the past four seasons. Those are the formats I really go out of my way to target him, but either way, Hicks is a great way to get cheap exposure to the Yankees lineup.
C.J. Cron, Colorado Rockies
Cron has long been someone I liked, even before he signed with the Rockies. Cron is never going to be a five-category producer, but he can be a nice source of power that you do not need to pay a high price to obtain. Cron hit 30 homers in 2018 and then 25 in 2019, despite missing time due to injury. He struggled in very limited time in 2020, but that led to him being an afterthought in early drafts. The signing with Colorado has him climbing up draft boards, but if I can get him in the 13th round or later, I like that value. A
TC has him projected for 28 homers, 79 RBI and a .261 average. I would take those numbers, but Cron has upside to top all of those numbers, as long as he gets the playing time – and we know how much Colorado loves playing veterans!
Later-Round Targets
Carlos Santana is going later than ever, but just two years ago he hit .281 with 34 homers, 93 RBI, 110 runs and four steals. And he is an absolute gem in points leagues or roto leagues with OBP instead of average. Even in his down 2020 he drew more walks than strikeouts and posted a .349 OBP, but his upside there is much higher. He will forever be my points league bae. I will be going after him in these formats.
Jesus Aguilar is a player I just can’t quit ever since his 35-home run, 108-RBI, 80-run 2018 season when he hit .274. He had a brutal 2019 season when he was in a part-time role and that caused his ADP to plummet, often going outside the first 20 rounds. Last season he quietly hit .277 with eight homers and 34 RBI, which would put him on pace for 25 homers and over 90 RBI in a full season. And yet he can still be had in the 18th or 19th round. He may not be the most exciting player, but he is productive and will see regular at-bats. I will take that all day at that price.
Myles Straw is a player I took in the 16th round of both Tout Wars and TGFBI. Straw has really been climbing up draft boards and it felt like perhaps I was reaching at the time, but Straw is going in the 16th more and more now. He is a great later-round source of speed. Straw is currently in line to be the Astros' everyday center fielder. He will not give much power at all, but every single project system has him projected for at least 27 stolen bases, including the most accurate in the business, ATC. All have him hitting .253 or higher as well, so he will not kill your average. He can also provide runs, as I anticipate he will either hit ninth, ahead of Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and co., or he will potentially hit leadoff some days. Both are a spot in the order that would help him score runs. If you find yourself in need of stolen bases after the 15th round, Straw is the player for you.
Nate Lowe is a player I like taking chances on around the 20th round. Lowe was a prospect that had a good amount of hype with the Rays, but just never really got an opportunity. The Rangers traded for Lowe this offseason and his competition for at-bats at first base is Ronald Guzman. I anticipate a rebuilding team like the Rangers will want to give Lowe plenty of chances to live up to that prospect hype. He is unproven, but the power upside is there. Perhaps the strikeouts are too big of a problem for him to overcome, but in the 20th round, its worthy of taking a gamble on his upside.
You can follow me on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
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