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Baltimore Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle is a 2021 fantasy baseball draft value. His ADP is undervalued, making him a potential draft bargain and late-round sleeper to target.
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 130
CURRENT ADP: ~146 overall
ANALYSIS: The frontrunner for 2021 AL Rookie of the Year may be a poor fielder but a full season at Camden Yards should yield profits. The 2020 small sample brought us a .333/.386/.492 slash with five homers over 140 PAs, but much of that was mirrored in his 2019 Triple-A with 25 homers and a .312/.344/.527 slash across a more robust 553 PAs. Mountcastle is a young bat who can utilize the whole field, as he sported a 30-40-30 pull-straight-oppo profile on 98 batted balls in 2020.
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Do note he still trends towards a typical 40% pull rate with his minor-league data, but I was impressed to see him go all over in the small-sample 2020. Rookies always present a wider range of outcomes but the median projection supports this mid-round pick. He’s capable of hitting .300, clearly, and has 60-grade raw power behind that for neutral 25-30 homer potential. Mix in Camden being a top-five park for the longball per EVAnalytics and baby, you’ve got a stew going. Yankee Stadium, Fenway Park and Dunedin offer above-average venues to boot, so let’s have fun. Mountcastle is undervalued at his current draft slot.
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