RADIO
So, last weekend's race was fun! And if you read my Xfinity picks piece, you would have noticed how high I was on Ty Gibbs in his first Xfinity start. One of the cheapest plays in the field, we ended up winning the race. Hope you had him in your lineup!
Now, the series heads to a different part of Florida for the third race of the season, this time at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Last June, Chase Briscoe won this race, but Noah Gragson led 81 laps, ultimately finishing fifth. It should come as no surprise that I'm high on Gragson this week.
Here at RotoBaller, we want to help you make informed decisions about your DFS lineups, which is why I'll be breaking down the slates for the Xfinity Series. Let's look at some NASCAR Xfinity DFS lineup picks for the Contender Boats 250 on DraftKings. Be sure to also check out our NASCAR Premium Tools for Xfinity Series including our DFS Lineup Optimizer and powerful Research Station.
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Xfinity DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Noah Gragson #9 ($11,300) - Starting 23rd
Before I talk about Gragson, I want to talk about why my rostering of top-priced Tyler Reddick will be fairly light.
Reddick starts 38th and has two Xfinity wins here. On the surface, he's someone who's a no-brainer in cash games. But he's in the 23 this week, which is a pretty mediocre RSS Racing/Reaume Brothers car. There seems to be confusion about why Reddick is in the car and who is preparing the car -- is it Reaume? is it Our Motorsports? is it RCR? -- which just puts a LOT of mystery into things. I'm not sold on Reddick unless I know that it's at least an Our car that he's driving, and even then I think he'll be over-rostered in GPPs.
Anyway, Noah Gragson.
As I said in the intro, he led 81 laps here last season. He has top-five finishes in all three of his Xfinity starts here and should be able to get up front pretty fast. I'm not sure he's the guy to target if I want to get laps led points due to his starting spot, but there's no reason to think Gragson won't be up to the front by the mid-way point.
Justin Haley #11 ($8,900) - Starting 8th
Full disclosure: I'm not sure I've ever labored over who to include in a picks article as much as I did today. The issue is that the cheap drivers are all bad plays: either they're guys starting in the back who'll stay in the back, or they're the drivers who we might usually want to target for value but are starting way too high because of good finishes last week. Hopefully this starts to work itself out at some point, but for now we're not able to squeeze in two elite options.
We can get someone like Haley, though. Sixth and 13th in the two races here last season, Haley is a solid choice if you're looking for a good driver in a good car who can get you a top-10 finish. Sometimes, that's really all you can ask for, and I'd rather trust Haley to finish well than play Daniel Hemric (starts second and thus has more downside in terms of place differential) or Michael Annett (starts 18th but is way less likely to post a top 10).
Riley Herbst #98 ($8,700) - Starting 29th
There were back-to-back races here last season and this 98 car won the second of them after finishing seventh in the first one.
Sure, Chase Briscoe was piloting it and Briscoe is almost certainly magnitudes better as a driver than Herbst, but this is a car with race-winning speed even if it's not piloted by a race-winning driver, and the car starts 29th and is only the 11th-most expensive car on this slate.
All that adds up to me being all in on Herbst this week. Let's not forget that he had top 10s in both races here last year while driving the 18 car. The 98 isn't that much of a downgrade -- heck, is it even a downgrade since he's the No. 1 driver for a team now -- and Herbst should be considered one of the biggest locks in this race.
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Josh Berry #8 ($7,800) - Starting 20th
JOSH BERRY.
The former JR Motorsports late model driver will make his second start of the season for JR Motorsports in Xfinity. It's great to see him getting chances.
I probably wouldn't play him most weeks, but as I mentioned above, the starting grid here combined with the pricing have me pretty unhappy, which leads to Berry being someone I'd consider a solid play.
Berry has run this track before, finishing 25th back in 2014. He's a short track guy, but Homestead is a driver's track, so a short track guy like Berry should be able to run some solid laps here. With the speed that we know this car has, Berry should finish higher than he's starting, with a decent shot at a top 10.
Ryan Vargas #6 ($6,900) - Starting 35th
Last week, Alvin Kamara sponsored Vargas, but he ran into trouble and finished 37th. That's led to him starting deep in the field this week.
Vargas is a nice pivot off of teammate Jeffrey Earnhardt, who starts one spot back of Vargas but costs $600 less. Both are fine plays, and I think one common theme of 2021 is that I'm going to be all over playing JD Motorsports cars when they start below 30th. This isn't a good team, but it isn't the complete backmarker that other underfunded Xfinity teams are, and Vargas had some decent runs in this car last season, including an eighth-place run at Texas.
If Vargas can keep the car clean and avoid mechanical issues, this team has top-25 potential. That doesn't sound like much, but it's more upside than a lot of other guys.
Jade Buford #48 ($6,300) - Starting 31st
This 48 car is a new team, owned by Big Machine Label Group CEO Scott Borchetta. They have ECR engines. They have sponsorship. They have Jade Buford in the car full time, aside from him not being approved to run Daytona.
What I'm trying to say is that I believe this is a mid-pack team that's being priced like they aren't a mid-pack team. Maybe I'm wrong, but Buford ran well before suspension issues ended his race last week.
My concern is that Buford is a road course guy, with no oval experience, as far as I can tell. That's definitely a worry! If that makes you pivot to a more experienced oval driver like Gray Gaulding (starts 26th, costs $100 less than Buford) then go for it, though I think Gaulding's car is a step down from the one Buford is in.
