NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (2/23): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft NHL DFS value plays and research for February 23rd including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Tuesday, February 23th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/23

• • Buffalo Sabres (-105) vs. New Jersey Devils (-115) - 5.5U
  • Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Washington Capitals (-125) - 6O
  • Chicago Blackhawks vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (-125) - 5.5U
  • Montreal Canadians (-225) vs. Ottawa Senators - 5.5U
  • Nashville Predators (-160) vs. Detroit Red Wings - 5.5U
  • Edmonton Oilers (-125) vs. Vancouver Canucks - 6.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,000 DK / $9,200 FD) - McDavid is coming off of a monster performance against the Flames where he registered five total points (three goals and two assists). McDavid has now had more games this season where he has scored three points (five games) than he has scored zero points (four games).
• Evgeni Malkin, PIT ($5,400 DK / $7,600 FD) - Malkin is finally starting to show signs of life over his last two games as he has registered three total points and is averaging three shots per game over his last four games played. Malkin has found the back of the net once against the Caps this season and with him finally showing glimpses of his old self recently, he could be a solid play over on DK based on his price point.
• Josh Norris, OTT ($4,400 DK / $4,400 FD) - The Sens have some young talent on their team and one of those young bright spots is Josh Norris. Norris has registered a point in three of his last four games and is averaging close to three shots per game over that four-game stretch. While the matchup against Montreal is tough, they do play at a good pace which creates more chances for the opposing teams which bodes well for Norris.

Other centers to consider: Draisaitl, Eichel, Crosby, Kuznetsov, Pettersson, Hughes, Suzuki, Granlund, Danault, Kotkaniemi, Texier, Hischier

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, EDM ($7,100 DK / $6,500 FD) - Edmonton has some pricey skaters and while RNH is in the 7k range on DK and mid 6.5K range on FD, he does offer cheaper exposure rather than paying up for the likes of Draisaitl or McDavid. RNH has generated at least two points in three of his last four games played and has had two multi-goal games in two of those four games.
• J.T. Miller, VAN ($5,400 DK / $6,300 FD) - The Canucks top line is starting to heat up and this is partly due to Miller heating up as well. Miller is almost at a point per game pace through 19 games and has recorded a point in three of his last four games played. Edmonton is allowing over three goals per game and struggle on the penalty kill which is where Miller excels so he could be in line to notch a point or two on the power play.
• Boone Jenner, CBJ ($3,600 DK / $4,100 FD) - Jenner is still under-priced on DK and offers a solid cash game floor as he averages over two shots per game and a blocked shot per game. Chicago is playing solid defense this season but Jenner has been able to find the back of the net twice against the Blackhawks and makes for a great cash game play or a cheap one-off play in tournaments.

Other wings to consider: Ovechkin, Kane, Forsberg, Laine, Gallagher, Boeser, Mantha, Oshie, Kubalik, Ryan, Kapanen, Brown, Pearson, Zacha

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Darnell Nurse, EDM ($6,200 DK / $5,800 FD) - Both Nurse and Barrie are in play on this slate and both offer different types of upside for your lineups. Nurse does a better job racking up peripheral stats as he has had at least four peripheral over his last four games played but he has also flashed in the point production department as he has recorded a point in three of his last four games played as well.
• P.K. Subban, NJD ($4,400 DK / $4,200 FD) - While Subban isn't quite the player he once was in Montreal, he still sees quite a bit of ice time as he skates on the top defensive pairing and the second power-play unit for the Devils. Subban offers a solid floor as he racks up peripheral stats on both ends of the ice and is better as a cash game one-off type of play.
• Mike Matheson, PIT ($3,400 DK / $3,600 FD) - The Penguins blueliner has been playing well over his last four games and he has seen an increase in minutes as he is averaging over 20 minutes per game over his last six games played. Matheson is averaging close to four peripheral stats per game over his last four games and has registered a point in three of those four games as well.

Other defensemen to consider: Carlson, Josi, Barrie, Jones, Letang, Ellis, Weber, Bouchard, Chiarot, Larson, Severson, Schmidt, Smith, Reilly, Djoos, Romanov, Ceci

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Carey Price, MTL ($8,400 DK / $8,600 FD) - Price is the highest-price goalie on the slate on both sites and while he is in a bit of a funk, he still is one of the best spots on the slate to grab a win. Price is 5-3-2 with a 2.87 goals allowed average and a .893 save percentage. Jake Allen tended the net in a Sunday overtime loss against the Sens and did fairly well as he stopped 36 of 39 shots so if Price can see that kind of volume, he has a chance of meeting and exceeding value.
• MacKenzie Blackwood, NJD ($7,800 DK / $7,100 FD) - One of the better young goaltenders in the league is MacKenzie Blackwood. Blackwood is 4-1-1 on the season with a 2.12 goals allowed average and a .938 save percentage. He was riding a four-game win streak as he headed into the Saturday afternoon matchup against the Sabres where he stopped 26 of 29 shots in a 3-2 loss. With the Sabres on the end of a back-to-back and New Jersey being the home team, this seems one of the better spots to look at when it comes to goalies on this slate.
• Kevin Lankinen, CHI ($7,300 DK / $7,500 FD) - The pricing on Lankinen is just too soft on both sites to ignore. Lankinen has been quite the surprise this season for the Blackhawks as he is 7-3-3 with a 2.43 goals allowed average and a .927 save percentage. He is 2-2- against Columbus this year as he is averaging 2.75 goals allowed per game against them and has seen over 30 shot attempts in two out of four of those game which means he should see shot volume and have a chance to rack up saves and achieve the save bonus over on DK.

Other goalies to consider: Koskinen, Korpisalo, Murray

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

• EDM 1
  • RNH/ McDavid/ Puljujarvi (Barrie, d-men add on)
    • The Edmonton top line continues to dominate in any matchup given and with the Canucks allowing 3.29 goals allowed per 60 minutes, there is a strong chance that the McDavid line finds a way to generate a few points in this game. The McDavid line has an expected goal for rate of 3.26 and is generating 36.64 scoring chances per 60 and 16.06 high danger chances per 60 minutes of ice time. McDavid, RNH, and Barrie all skate on the top power-play unit and make the strongest correlation as they should see the most time on ice together.
• WSH 1/ PP 
  • Ovechkin/ Kuznetsov/ Oshie (Carlson, d-men add on) 
    • The Capitals and Penguins game features one of the higher overall totals on the slate and there are several places to go in this game. With Washington having the home-ice advantage, there could be a strong chance where we see the Ovechkin line evade the Crosby line which puts Ovi, Kuznetsov, and Oshie in a very good spot. This top line is generating 37 scoring chances per 60 and 12 high danger opportunities per 60 and with Ovechkin, Oshie, and Carlson all skating together at even strength and on the top power-play unit, they make for a very strong correlating three-man stack. The Penguins have one of the worst penalty-killing units in the league while the Caps are tied for first when it comes to the power play so if Washington can get a few odd-man advantages, it could be a big night for the Ovechkin line.
• MTL 2
  • Drouin/ Suzuki/ Anderson (Petry, d-men add on)
    • The 2nd line of Montreal has been one of the stronger second units in the entire league. They are posting a 55 corsi for this season while having a 2.79 expected goals for rate and generating over 30 scoring chances per 60 minutes and 11.69 high danger chances per 60. Drouin, Suzuki, and Petry all skate on the top power-play unit so there is some strong correlation there and the Ottawa penalty kill has struggled this season as they rank 24th in the entire league.

Other Stacks to consider: BUF PP, CHI 1/ PP, PIT 2

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C: Eichel (1.35X), Pettersson (1.45X), Larkin (1.55X), Suzuki (1.65X)

W: Laine (1.3X), Tkachuk (1.35X), Palmieri (1.45X), Filip Forsberg (1.65X), Brendan Gallagher (1.65X)

D: Nurse (1.15X), Carlson (1.15X), Josi (1.3X), Jones (1.5X)

G: Blackwood (1.05X), Price (1.75X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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