Relievers Set to Break Out in 2021

March 8, 2021

As the calendar flips to February and more leagues start drafting, it's time to dive into everybody's favorite topic: breakouts. For now, we'll ignore the increasingly common facial breakouts from pandemic-related stress and focus on relief. Relief pitching, that is.

When looking for draft targets at relief pitcher, almost everybody just turns their eyes to saves. If a reliever can rack up 20+ saves, many fantasy managers are more inclined to endure their inconsistent ratios and/or average strikeout totals. However, the changing dynamic of MLB bullpens has made predicting saves harder each and every year. Add to that the ability for pitchers on bad teams to still rack up high save totals (hi, Shane Greene and Ian Kennedy), and predicting reliever value solely based on saves can cause you to swing and miss in a big way during the draft.

In the following article, we're going to look at four breakout relievers who I think will be able to get you saves this year, but I also believe will help you in multiple other categories to make them more useful to you overall. Not necessarily guys like Stefan Crichton, who could close in Arizona but not really bring much else to the table, fantasy-wise. Some of these guys have made pitch mix changes, learned a new pitch, or have simply proved themselves enough to earn a high leverage role that would get them more value. With the exception of the one obvious name who leads off this article, I believe we've unearthed some potential relief pitcher values who could carry your team to the top if they break out the way I anticipate. All ADP info come from NFBC Draft Champions leagues from January 1st to January 30th 

James Karinchak, Cleveland Indians

ADP: 96

We start with our obvious selection. I know Karinchak is the easy call for breakout reliever, but I think he's still worth discussing and, frankly, sometimes the easy answer isn't always a bad answer. Last year, in his first "full" season in the major leagues, Karinchak recorded a 2.67 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with a 16.67 K/9 and 33.9 K-BB% across 27 innings. Riding a limited repertoire of just a fastball and curveball, Karinchak held hitters to a .130 xBA and .196 xSLG, which were both in the top 1% of the league. He also allowed only a 2.5% barrel rate, which put him in the top 3% of the league and induced a ridiculous 16.9% SwStr%.

However, despite his limited MLB experience, there is nothing to suggest these results are flukey.

Karinchak upped his curveball usage in 2020, throwing it 49.8% of the time or nearly exactly the same as his fastball. The results on both were spectacular, but the curveball impressively limited hard contact and proved to be quite the swing-and-miss pitch for Karinchak. Part of the reason for that is the way in which it mirrors his fastball. What that means is that the fastball and curveball will come from the same arm slot but appear to the hitter as if they move in directly opposite directions as they approach the plate. We can see that illustrated now with the new Statcast Spin Direction graphics.

What you see illustrated clearly on the left is the way in which Karinchak's fastball comes out of his hand and travels at a trajectory of about 12:30 on the "clock," while his curveball drops at a trajectory around 6:30. Pitchers have been talking for years about trying to "mirror" their offerings because of the way it confuses hitters and enhances the effectiveness of their pitches. With Karinchak specifically, we see that, even with two pitches, his pitch mix is perfectly designed to keep hitters guessing because of the way they move in directly oppositional ways, which you can see really well here:

Now that he has the closer's role in Cleveland all to himself, there's no reason not to expect him to be an elite fantasy asset. The Indians themselves may not be great, which will cap his overall save totals, but his ratios will likely stay low and his K/9 should remain in the top percentiles of the league. He does need to watch his rising BB%, which jumped from 4.5% in 2019 to 14.7% in 2020 as his Zone% and Chase% fell, but I think that's evidence of a young player learning what he can get away with. His back-to-back- 16.8% and 16.9% SwStr% suggest that hitters struggle to make contact against him, so Karinchak will learn to find the zone more often and dare hitters to beat him. He's a solid value at his current ADP, but I'd become hesitant if it crept up much higher.

Lucas Sims, Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 327

I was on the Lucas Sims bandwagon heading into the 2020 season when I thought he'd earn a spot in the rotation, and I'm staying on it now that he could potentially emerge as the team's closer. With Raisel Iglesias in Los Angeles and Michael Lorenzon transitioning into the rotation, Sims, Amir Garrett, and Sean Doolittle are the favorites for the 9th inning in Cincinnati. I know many people will quickly anoint Doolittle the closer because he's done it before, but the modern use of bullpens makes me think that Sims may see more than his fair share of save opportunities as the Reds play matchups with him and the two left-handers.

Since Sims has transitioned full-time into the bullpen, he has made consistent improvements, most notably in his strikeout rate. In 2019, Sims recorded an 11.93 K/9, 1.16 WHIP, and 21.5 K-BB% with a 4.60 ERA. If we remove Sims' four starts from that year, his ERA settles at 3.32, and we see a spike in his K/9. In 2020, he appeared in 20 games out of the bullpen, pitching to a 2.45 ERA with an 11.92 K/9, 0.94 WHIP, and a 22.3 K-BB%. Those are two strong seasons in a row as a bullpen option, considering his one MLB season as a starting pitcher he finished with a 6.87 K/9.

So what does Sims do differently now that has helped him in this new role? For starters, as is to be expected, moving to the bullpen allowed Sims to throw harder over a shorter outing. In 2018, his fastball averaged 92.3 MPH, but it was up to 93.9 MPH last year. He's still not pumping gas, but that's a noticeable difference and his fastball has improved from a -4.4 pVAL to a 1.6 pVAL over that time. However, much of that also has to do with the change in Sims' pitch mix. He removed his sinker and drastically cut down on his changeup so that he is really now a three-pitch pitcher.

That has been particularly important as he has relied more on his slider. In 2020, Sims threw his slider 18.5% of the time, which was a massive jump from the 4.5% he threw it as a starter in 2018. The most interesting thing about Sims' slider is its deviation, meaning the way its appearance differs from its real movement. If we remember that Spin-Based movement is how the ball appears on its initial movement to the plate and Observed Total Movement is based on plate location, it's clear why Sims has far and away the highest deviation with his slider in the entire league.

Look at the yellow on the left, where Sim's slider appears to be (from the pitcher's perspective) as it begins its journey to home plate. Then look at the yellow on the right photo, which illustrates where the observed movement is based on the pitch reaching the plate. That's a crazy difference in deviation - almost five and half hours if we look at the clock. Now, deviation doesn't guarantee success for a pitcher, but Sims has had great success with his slider because it comes out of his hand looking similar to his fastball and then darts quickly down into the zone (hence creating confusion that also helps make his fastball more effective).

Sims' ability to throw that slider from a similar arm slot as his fastball creates chaos for batters. However, that pitch is just flat nasty. You don't need metrics to tell you that (although, it's nice when they do).

What makes me even more bullish on Sims is that the fastball-slider combo doesn't even factor in his curveball, which was his best pitch in 2020, registering a .101 xBA and .138 xSLG while also being a key swing-and-miss pitch with a 46.8 Whiff%, and 31.8 PutAway%. The curve also saw massive leaps in pitches batters chased out of the zone as well as jumping from 12.8% to 29.6% swing and miss in the zone. His ability to throw the curve in the same vicinity as the slider, but with less velocity and vertical drop but more horizontal sweep seems to lead to more deception or effectiveness on the curveball. At this ADP, I think I'm going to have a lot of Lucas Sims. Even if he only manages 7-12 saves in a split job, he is going to pitch high leverage innings for the Reds, likely snagging a few wins or holds on his way to strong ratios and a lot of K/9 upside.

Yimi Garcia, Miami Marlins

ADP: 335

The Miami Marlins made the playoffs last year, but nobody seems to care. Yes, I know it was a short season and it all seems flukey, but I don't think we should write off this team. They have good, young pitching and some solid veterans in the lineup, which will keep them competitive. That will likely lead to a good number of save opportunities, and Yimi Garcia stands to be the man to benefit from that as of this writing.

The 30-year-old has been incredibly solid the last two seasons and was dominant in the shortened 2020 campaign, pitching to a 0.60 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP with an 11.40 K/9 and 23.3 K-BB% across 15 innings. While 15 innings wasn't enough to qualify him for the Statcast leaderboard, his .198 xBA, .315 xSLG, and 5.6% barrel rate allowed are all strong indicators of deserved results. A quick look at his Statcast page from 2019 will also confirm that his success wasn't simply limited to 2020's small sample.

What intrigues me the most about the changes Garcia made from 2019 to 2020 is the switch from curveball to slider as his second offering. Last year Garcia's slider usage jumped from 17.7% in 2019 to 29.5% in 2020. The pitch registered a .213 xBA and .249 xSLG, but I think its benefit was in what it did to the effectiveness of Garcia's fastball. If we look at the spin direction graphics below, we can see that Garcia's slider and fastball begin at nearly the same trajectory - around 1:30 for the fastball and 12:30 for the slider, as opposed to 10 o'clock for the curve. However, the observed movement of the slider - what the batter sees - often has the slider ending up around 9 or 10 o'clock, which is a three-hour deviation.

What this means is that, by using the slider more than the curveball, even if the slider is not a proverbial "out pitch," Garcia is about to keep hitters off of his fastball. In a two-strike count, he can throw the fastball, and hitters will see the release point and trajectory and guess slider. When the fastball rides up and in on them, instead of breaking away, he can induce more swings and misses. We can see this in action since his swing and miss rate on fastballs in the zone rose from 26.1% in 2019 to 34% in 2020. That increased effectiveness also led to Garcia using the fastball as more of an out pitch since its Whiff% jumped from 28% in 2019 to 36.4% in 2020 and the PutAway rate went from 20.1% in 2019 to 35.7% in 2020.

I know it's a small sample size, but I believe the metrics and imaging back it up. When you pair that with a curveball that has very similar observed movement to the slider but is actually five MPH slower and drops 12 inches more, you can see how Garcia has an effectively deceptive pitch mix. As a result, I think people are drastically undercutting his K/9 by thinking it drops from 11.40 down to something in the low 9s, as many sites are predicting. I believe Garcia can carry a K/9 above 10 and pair that with an ERA in the mid-3s while also being a legitimate contender to beat out Anthony Bass (and his career 4.32 ERA and 16.9 K%) for the Marlins' closer job for the Marlins. In the end, wouldn't surprise me if Garcia grabbed 15+ saves and earned tremendous value at his current ADP.

Jake Diekman, Oakland Athletics

ADP: 356

I'm going to squeeze a fourth pitcher onto this list because I feel like Karinchak was an easy call. If you play in a SV+HLD league, you likely recognize Diekman's name because he's been a key left-hander out of the bullpen for the Texas Rangers and Oakland A's over the last two years. He's been a good but not great reliever until he came to Oakland and made a pretty drastic change to his slider grip, which altered the shape and effectiveness of the pitch.

The slider now has 14 inches of horizontal break after only 5.9 inches in 2019 and dropped 2.5 MPH. The pitch was incredibly effective for Diekman, allowing a .106 xBA, .141 xSLG, and a .165 xwOBA. While the whiff rates saw only a slight bump relatively similar to 2019, Diekman saw his GB% spike as a whole from 47.3% to 61.5%, partly because of the overall increase in topped and weak contact off the slider.

However, despite the effectiveness, Diekman threw the pitch 6% less often in 2020. Part of that is because the new shape of the slider helped make his fastball more effective. The sweep of the slider, instead of a much sharper drop, keeps it on the same plane as the fastball for a longer period of time. This allowed Diekman to increase the effectiveness of his fastball as a strikeout pitch, jumping from a 28.7 Whiff% and 21.1 PutAway% in 2019 to a 37.9 Whiff% and 27.7 PutAway% in 2020. The fastball did induce a .338 xSLG as opposed to a .132 actually SLG, so Diekman still gives up a fair amount of hard contact on the pitch, which means the added level of deception is crucial for him to maintain success. If hitters start identifying the fastball easier, they can do damage to that pitch.

With Liam Hendriks now on the White Sox, Diekman is arguably the favorite for saves in Oakland, unless Lou Trivino can find his 2018 form. Since Oakland has historically liked to settle on one closer and not play matchups, Diekman could be a great bet to push 20+ saves if he wins the job, so it'll be crucial to keep an eye on any other moves the A's make as we near spring training. Even with only a share of the ninth-inning duties based on the matchup, Diekman should have a K/9 over 12, so, although he may not have stellar ratios, I'll take two strong categories from a reliever going this late in drafts.

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