Lies, Damned Lies, and Fantasy Statistics - TD Rate

Pierre Camus dives into misleading fantasy football statistics based on small sample, schedule quirks, outlier performances, or other factors to help fantasy GMs find streamers to target or avoid and make smart lineup decisions for Week 8.

Over the last couple of weeks, this column has focused on the critical positions of running back and wide receivers. Now, it's time to give quarterbacks their due. It has been easier than ever to stick with the QB you drafted because, other than the tragic Dak Prescott injury, most have gone through the season unscathed. That makes it easier to focus more closely on their performance and remaining schedule in order to determine value for the rest of the season.

Our deceptive stat of the week is a relatively simple one: touchdown rate. Simply divide the number of touchdowns thrown by pass attempts and you get an idea of how often a QB registers a score. The problem is that it can be one of the most volatile stats out there and shouldn't be used at all in fantasy analysis.

Not all advanced metrics are meaningful and some can be downright deceptive. My goal is to point out potential outliers that could steer you wrong when making key lineup decisions for Week 8 and beyond.

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Touchdown Rate - Quarterbacks

Aside from the elite passers like Russell Wilson, who are productive every week no matter what, defensive matchup usually dictates how a QB will perform. Every quarterback seems to rack up yardage these days, no matter how good or bad, so the key difference for fantasy teams is how many times he can reach the end zone.

Alas, touchdowns are a highly unpredictable stat and touchdown rates fluctuate yearly. The best seasons we've seen recently in this category include Carson Wentz in 2017 (7.5%), Pat Mahomes in 2018 (8.6%), and Lamar Jackson in 2019 (9.0%). All were marked by a sharp drop the following season: Wentz (5.2%), Mahomes (5.4%), Jackson (6.2% so far).

Touchdown rates also hit peaks and valleys throughout the season, as all but the very best and very worst offenses perform inconsistently. An early-season top scorer could hit a wall, as seems to be happening to Josh Allen. Likewise, there are bound to be slow starters that catch fire later in the season. Let's identify two of each to help make better lineup decisions at QB.

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

7.6% TD% (3 out of 32)

It's clear that this stat is an outlier because a week ago Mayfield had not thrown more than two TD in a game and held a 5.8% touchdown rate. His sudden five-TD outburst propped him up among the leaders when he had previously been middle-of-the-pack. His career mark thus far is 5.3% so expect regression to the mean. He exceeded two touchdowns in a game twice all last year, so maybe one more is coming.

We can't really use Odell Beckham's absence as an argument against Mayfield since his career-best scoring day came after OBJ left the game. Also, consider that Mayfield has been more productive on the whole without Beckham, including .32 more touchdown passes per game.

So replacing OBJ on the field with DPJ (Donovan Peoples-Jones of course) may not hurt him statistically as you might expect but you shouldn't expect more than two TD per game anyway. Cleveland has a pillow-soft schedule after their Week 9 bye, which makes him tempting, but Nick Chubb may be back shortly after.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

6.3% TD% (8 out of 32)

The first impression Cousins gives fantasy managers is typically that of a middling QB2 with upside in good matchups but never a week-winning ceiling. He is actually more boom/bust than most quarterbacks and more so than we imagine. In 2019, Cousins had seven multi-touchdown games with more than half of his season total of 26 coming in four games where he amassed 14 TD. He also had seven games where he accounted for one or no touchdowns, including on the ground.

This year, he's already thrown for three TD twice. One of those contests came against the 1-5 Falcons Defense, which has given up the most passing touchdowns and yards in the league this year. The other was courtesy of the Titans Defense that has allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns. Yet, even against Houston and Seattle, who rank 22nd and 32nd in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, he combined for one score in those games.

With Dalvin Cook set to come back and a tougher divisional schedule on the horizon, Cousins isn't likely to boom for quite a while. Only Week 11 vs Dallas and Week 13 vs Jacksonville offer any hope for him as a streaming option.

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

4.2% TD% (21 out of 32)

Ryan's current TD rate matches last year and wouldn't be the lowest of his career at all. In fact, Ryan has finished with a TD rate of 4.2% or lower in five different seasons. He may well settle into this range for the foreseeable future but it doesn't truly speak to his fantasy value.

Ryan has 12 passing touchdowns on the season (tied for 13th) and is the league-leader in passing yards at 2,181. Despite playing in an offense that has been inefficient for much of the season, these numbers come as a result of sheer volume. Atlanta's terrible defense will continue to make sure the team is in pass-first mode often, so don't expect that to change in 2020.

We also can't forget that he was without Julio Jones in Week 3 and Week 5, while he was mostly a decoy in Week 4. It's no surprise that Ryan had a total of one touchdown across those three games. With Jones at full speed, Ryan has been a top-12 fantasy QB.

image taken from RotoViz

As it stands, Ryan should easily finish as a top-1o fantasy quarterback and should average at least two TD per game the rest of the way along with outstanding yardage totals. The downside to hanging your hate on Ryan is that his matchups in Weeks 15-16 for the fantasy playoffs are Tampa Bay and Kansas City, who allow the third and 10th-fewest fantasy PPG to quarterbacks.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

3.1% TD% (27 out of 32)

It feels as if Burrow is having a really solid rookie year and putting up fantasy points nearly every week. He ranks as a top-15 fantasy QB in most leagues and is as high as eighth in leagues in standard leagues where yardage counts more, thanks to his 289 Y/G average. Yet, he could be doing so much better.

Burrow is near the bottom of the barrel in touchdown rate, tied with Nick Foles and below Philip Rivers. A 9/5 TD/INT rate is nothing to brag about. Are we elevating Burrow too high? Of course, the answer is no because this stat is somewhat misleading (naturally). It also underscores how good Burrow has been.

Only 3 QBs rank in the top 10 in both positively graded throw rate and avoiding negatively graded throw rate:

? Russell Wilson
? Ryan Tannehill
? Joe Burrow pic.twitter.com/e5QsdrNIoK

— PFF (@PFF) October 20, 2020

Just like Ryan, Burrow is getting by on volume. His 293 pass attempts are the most in the NFL, four more than Ryan. As a result, he's third in passing yards but his TD rate takes a hit because he is throwing the ball so often. It is puzzling why he has just nine touchdowns through the air then. It's not as if Joe Mixon is stealing all the scores on the ground; he has just three touchdowns this year and the team as a whole has seven rushing touchdowns.

The issue has been inefficiency in the red zone. Cincinnati ranks 26th in offensive touchdowns per game because they are 28th in red-zone scoring efficiency, settling for field goal attempts on half of their trips. It's not a good sign when your kicker leads the league in field goals. That figure has improved up to 63% over their last three games, however, and one would assume Burrow will get more comfortable as the year progresses. The Bengals have an extremely favorable schedule throughout the second half, so he can be considered a weekly QB1 in 12-team or deeper leagues.

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