RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings for Monday, August 17th, 2020 at 3:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 8/17
- Tampa Bay Lightning (-155) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (+135)
- Colorado Avalanche (-175) vs. Arizona Coyotes (+155)
- Boston Bruins (-130) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (+110)
- St. Louis Blues (-140) vs. Vancouver Canucks (+120)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Vancouver | 9 | 11 | 20 | 22 | 12.25 |
| Carolina | 6 | 6 | 19 | 11 | 6.5 |
| Colorado | 1 | 22 | 17 | 4 | 13.5 |
| Arizona | 13 | 2 | 14 | 17 | 9 |
| Columbus | 6 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 3.5 |
| St. Louis | 20 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 17.75 |
| Tampa Bay | 11 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 7.5 |
| Boston | 14 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 15.5 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
| Matchups | PP% | Opp PK % |
| Tampa Bay | 11 | 4 |
| Columbus | 22 | 7 |
| Colorado | 6 | 15 |
| Arizona | 21 | 5 |
| Boston | 16 | 9 |
| Carolina | 12 | 14 |
| St. Louis | 16 | 11 |
| Vancouver | 1 | 24 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate!
NHL DFS Core Four
The Core 4 picks are to help you construct your cash game lineups while also giving you plays that you can use and build around in GPPs. Stacking is critical in NHL DFS so you might want to pair these suggestions with a linemate or two, especially when building your tournament lineups.
1) DFS Center: Nathan MacKinnon ($8,500 DK/ $8,800 FD)
MacKinnon is always an elite play regardless of the matchup. He has achieved double-digit points in every game so far during the postseason and continues to see good amounts of ice-time. One thing that really jumps out is that he has generated a point in every game so far throughout the postseason and it doesn't seem like he will be slowing down anytime soon. MacKinnon is viable in all formats and can even be used as a one-off play even if you decide to roll with Darcy Kuemper in the net.
Other Top Center Plays:
- Brayden Point ($6,700 DK/ $7,700 FD)
- Patrice Bergeron ($7,300 DK/ $7,300 FD)
- Pierre-Luc Dubois ($5,200 DK/ $6,000 FD)
2) DFS Winger: Brad Marchand ($6,500 DK/ $8,000 FD)
Ever since David Pastrnak left the lineup, Brad Marchand has stepped up offensively in his absence and has been one of the better point-getters in his last several games. He has racked up four points in his last two games played and has also generated 10 shots during that span as well. He is averaging 19.2 DK points against Carolina so far throughout the playoffs and has seven total points in four games against them throughout the season.
Other Top Winger Plays:
- Taylor Hall ($5,900 DK/ $6,900 FD)
- Nikita Kucherov ($8,000 DK/ $8,300 FD)
- Oliver Bjorkstrand ($5,200 DK/ $4,700 FD)
3) DFS Defenseman: Victor Hedman ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD)
Hedman has been extremely involved on the offensive end in this series against Columbus. He has generated 19 shots in the three-game series so far and recorded seven blocked shots as well. While he only has produced two points in the series so far, his peripheral stats are making up for it from a fantasy perspective which is what we love to see! Hedman is reasonably priced and is viable in all formats.
Other Defenseman Plays:
- Alexander Edler ($5,300 DK/ $4,500 FD)
- Cale Makar ($5,900 DK/ $5,800 FD)
- Dougie Hamilton ($6,200 DK/ $5,800 FD)
4) DFS Goalie: Jaroslav Halak ($8,000 DK/ $8,500 FD)
Halak will be the main goalie for the Bruins moving forward as Tuukka Rask has opted out for the rest of the postseason. Halak made 29 saves on 30 shots and notched 22.8 DK points in his first outing against Carolina. The Hurricanes will struggle a bit on the offensive end with Andrei Svechnikov most likely being out for the rest of the series and postseason so it puts Boston and Halak in a better overall position. Halak has gone 2-0 against Carolina this season with only allowing one goal on 54 shots faced. He looks to be in a great spot to see some shot volume which is needed from a fantasy goalie perspective.
Value Plays
DFS Value Plays: Center
- Derek Stepan ($3,800 DK/ $4,700 FD)
- Charlie Coyle ($3,700 DK/ $4,800 FD)
- Anthony Cirelli ($3,500 DK/ $4,300 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Wing
- Ondrej Kase ($3,900 DK/ $3,500 FD)
- Conor Garland ($3,600 DK/ $4,000 FD)
- Nino Niederreiter ($3,000 DK/ $3,800 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Defensemen
- Jakob Chychrun ($3,800 DK/ $3,500 FD)
- Brady Skjei ($3,700 DK/ $4,100 FD)
- Ryan McDonagh ($3,200 DK/ $4,400 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Goalie
- Darcy Kuemper ($6,900 DK/ $7,500 FD)
- Joonas Korpisalo ($7,200 DK/ $7,300 FD)
Top Team and Line DFS Stacks
Boston Bruins (L1, L3)
Boston dominated the puck possession battle in game three of this series with a 57.98 corsi. In addition, their defense really showed out as they limited Carolina to just four high-danger chances while their own offense generated 13 high-danger opportunities throughout the game. Boston did a great job creating scoring chances as they were able to accrue 36 scoring chances while they only limited the hurricanes to 17 scoring chances. Their top line was once again dominant but their third line played really well, especially Charlie Coyle. Coyle saw a good amount of Carolina's top line and if he can continue to see the ice-time against them, his line might be able to create a few more scoring chances.
Tampa Bay (L1, L2)
Tampa is another team that has dominated their opponent in terms of puck possession and scoring chances throughout their series. They have generated a 63.41 corsi and have generated a +62 scoring chance differential which is extremely impressive on multiple levels. First, it shows how great of a job Tampa has done on maintaining pressure on Columbus while almost doubling the number of scoring chances. On the other end, it shows how well Korpisalo has truly played for Columbus and shows why they are still alive in this series. The Lightning's top line looked really solid in their most recent game as they generated an 86.21 corsi and six high-danger scoring chances. In addition to their top line, the second and third lines all played well and look to be viable value stacks on this slate.
Other Stacks that could be lower owned: Arizona (L1), Colorado (L1, L2)
