Rookie ADP Arbitrage - Tight End

The lack of depth at tight end is more apparent than ever, especially with Hunter Henry's unfortunate non-contact ACL injury in OTAs. Never fear, as help is on the way in the form of a brand new crop of young talent.

After looking at wide receivers, running backs, and quarterbacks previously in our post-draft arbitrage series, we conclude with tight ends. In this space, we'll look at some rookie tight ends that will be prominent in dynasty drafts to see where their true value lies.

Tight ends usually take the longest to develop out of skill position players, making them less valuable commodities in dynasty drafts. However, that does not mean that they can't be valuable for dynasty owners; depending on the situation, young tight ends have produced early in their careers, making them difference makers at a position that lacks any depth in the NFL currently.

Rookie ADP Arbitrage - TE

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles

After having two 1,000 yard seasons for South Dakota State, Dallas Goedert was one of the best FCS players around. Since then, he has been chosen by the Philadelphia Eagles, a team known for generating production at the tight end position. The Eagles spent a 2nd round pick to acquire Goedert; however, the high draft capital does not mean that he will see the field very early. The team already has one of the top tight ends in the league in Zach Ertz as well as wide receiver Alshon Jeffery and pass-catching backs Corey Clement and Darren Sproles. Therefore, although second tight end Trey Burton had a sizable role in the team's offense, he was not often fantasy relevant due to the presence of Zach Ertz. As long as Ertz is in Philadelphia, it is difficult to expect consistent top-level play by Dallas Goedert at the NFL level.

Goedert's poor landing spot makes him a risky pick, even though his ADP is currently 183rd overall in dynasty startup drafts. You will be better served taking a shot at a young wide receiver or running back at this point in the draft, as it is unlikely that Goedert will produce good results barring an injury to Ertz any time soon. In rookie drafts, Goedert is going 22nd overall (right in front of Sam Darnold); this is decent value for him, but there are better wide receivers such as Dante Pettis going behind him that warrant the selection instead of the youngster from South Dakota State.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins

A freak athlete, Gesicki holds the most receptions by a tight end in Penn State history. Furthermore, his 99th percentile SPARQ score for a tight end elevated him up draft boards, and he was eventually chosen in the 2nd round by the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins lack any competition at the tight end position, making Gesicki a prime candidate for early production for the team. However, expectations should be tempered; despite coach Adam Gase's love for tight ends, the team projects to be one of the lowest performing teams in the NFL next year and may not have an offense that can sustain consistent production from a rookie tight end. However, Gesicki has shown that he can thrive when given the opportunity, so he could have a Hunter Henry-esque impact in year one.

Currently, Gesicki is going 188th overall in dynasty startups; he seems like a much better selection than Dallas Goedert (although a wide receiver or running back would still be the preferred choice). In rookie drafts, Gesicki is the 24th overall pick, right behind Goedert once again. At this point (back of the second, start of the third), Gesicki makes sense because of his pathway to production; however, expectations should be tempered for the young tight end as it may be awhile before he is able to generate significant production at the NFL level.

Hayden Hurst, Baltimore Ravens

The first tight end picked in the 2018 NFL Draft, Hurst will be 25 years old when the season starts but comes with a first round pedigree to the Baltimore Ravens, a team known for getting their tight ends involved in recent years. The former baseball player turned college walk-on will have every opportunity to see the field early and will play with notorious check-down quarterback Joe Flacco. Hurst should have plenty of targets in an offense devoid of any clear playmakers, making him instantly fantasy relevant but with a lower ceiling due to the overall nature of the Ravens offense. However, if quarterback Lamar Jackson is able to see the field, we could see an entirely new dimension to the team and how they play, leaving the fantasy values of the majority of the team (including Hurst) up in the air.

Hurst is going outside of the top 200 picks in dynasty startup drafts, which makes him a fine lottery ticket choice (who should be chosen ahead of Dallas Goedert). In rookie drafts, Hurst is going 31st overall, making him a great value play and a player who should be selected far ahead of Mark Andrews, the next tight end on the board (who also was drafted by the Baltimore Ravens).

More 2018 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis

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