RADIO
Many fantasy owners avoid players such as Billy Hamilton because his lopsided production puts you at a disadvantage in four out of five categories. The obvious solution is to roster balanced players who contribute in all of the categories, but players who can realistically do that are often expensive. Heck, Alex Bregman is commanding a top 50 price and his peripherals suggest he may not contribute anything!
There is value in balanced contributors, especially if you don't need to break the bank to acquire them. Brett Gardner is currently way too cheap for a guy who contributes everywhere, especially considering he still figures to lead off in the Bronx. Nobody wants to believe in Whit Merrifield's 2017 either, but his peripherals support a repeat.
Here's a closer look at a pair of draft day bargains.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Brett Gardner (OF, NYY) ADP: 171
Gardner helped in every fantasy category last year, slashing .264/.350/.428 with 21 homers and 23 steals (five CS). It was kind of ho-hum, as Gardner has posted similar fantasy numbers in each of the last five seasons.
Gardner started his career as an elite SB option, so let's start there even though he doesn't run as often as he used to. His success rate is still strong (82%), so the Yankees have little incentive to slow him down. He also maintains plus wheels by Statcast Sprint Speed (28.7 ft./sec last year, 28.3 ft./sec in 2016), making more of the same the most likely 2018 outcome.
Gardner's power isn't as supported by his peripheral stats. His average airborne exit velocity was below average last year (90.3 mph) and always has been (89.8 mph in 2016, 91.5 in 2015). His rate of Brls/BBE is also mediocre (3.8% last year, 2.4% and 4.3% the previous two seasons). Finally, he hits relatively few fly balls (33.2% FB%, 32% career).
Yet he has a track record of approaching 20 homers per season, a trend that should not be ignored. Yankee Stadium is the single best ballpark for left-handed pop, earning a FanGraphs HR Factor of 114 last year. Gardner takes full advantage by pulling many of the flies he hits (26.3% last year, 22.7% career). Last season's 13.5% HR/FB was not special, so Gardner should get his 20 bombs by volume of PAs alone.
Next, let's consider his batting average. Last year's .300 BABIP fell short of his .315 career mark despite an elevated LD% (22.3% vs. 20.9% career) and a decrease in his IFFB% (7.7% vs. 11.1% career). His grounders lost a little of their productivity (.263 vs. .272 career), but Gardner's foot speed and complete indifference to the shift (.319 vs. shifts last year) should keep his BABIP on ground balls high moving forward.
Gardner also failed to reach his career BABIPs on both fly balls (.089 vs. .117) and line drives (.629 vs. .672) last season. His airborne contact quality was virtually unchanged, so positive regression and a higher batting average seem to be awaiting Gardner in 2018.
Gardner gets bonus points if your league uses walks or OBP, as his plate discipline is tremendous. Last year's 10.6% BB% was supported by an elite 21.2% chase rate, so the walks should keep on coming. He also rarely strikes out (17.9% K% last year, 18.5% career) since he rarely whiffs (5.1% SwStr% last year) and covers the strike zone beautifully (91.8% Z-Contact%).
Leading off for New York with a favorable OBP should produce plenty of runs scored in front of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, giving Gardner an elite category to compliment his balanced production. Some people are probably worried that Gardner stops playing everyday with the emergence of Aaron Hicks, but not even the Yankees can bench a 3.8 WAR player. Gardner could be the steal of the draft!
Verdict: Champ
Whit Merrifield (2B, KC) ADP: 78.3
Merrifield led the AL in steals last season with 34 (eight CS), but unlike most jackrabbits he contributed elsewhere too. His .288/.324/.460 triple slash line provided real help in batting average, while his 19 long balls were solid for a stolen base champion. Best of all, everything under the hood suggests more of the same in 2018.
Merrifield is even faster than Gardner (28.9 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed) and his success rate was just as good (81%), so steals are probably the safest part of his profile. Even Merrifield's detractors generally acknowledge his legitimate wheels, so let's move on.
Merrifield's power felt like it came out of nowhere, but it really shouldn't have. His FB% in 2016 was pathetic (29.8%), but he was constantly near or above the 40% plateau on the farm. Last year's 40.5% FB% makes 2016 look like the clear outlier, giving Merrifield the volume of flies necessary to help his league average power play up.
Merrifield also has a little more oomph than you might expect, as his flies averaged 92.1 mph last season. He pulled a healthy number of them too (22.8%), but struggles a little to combine his best exit velocities with ideal launch angles (4.9% Brls/BBE). Merrifield's 9.4% HR/FB is likely hurt by his home park, but he hits enough flies well to make a run at 20 bombs regardless.
On the batting average front, nothing in Merrifield's profile seems particularly challenging to repeat. His .308 BABIP was slightly higher than the league's average of .300, but the 29-year old has the wheels to sustain something close to last year's .282 BABIP on ground balls. You can't shift him (.296 vs. shifts last year), so Merrifield's grounders are likely to remain productive.
Merrifield's 21.8% LD% was also close enough to league average to expect more of the same going forward. His FB% is high for BABIP purposes, but his IFFB% (7.4%) wasn't that bad last year.
Merrifield also helps his batting average by refusing to K. Last year's 14% K% was supported by excellent plate coverage (91.8% Z-Contact%) and a solid 7.9% SwStr%. His 34.3% chase rate limits his appeal in OBP formats (4.6% BB% last season), but his plate discipline as a whole is an asset.
Merrifield wasn't moved to the leadoff slot until June last year, giving him counting stat upside even as his supporting cast becomes weaker. He also played 14 games in the outfield, giving him valuable positional versatility in some formats. Invest in Merrifield in 2018. You won't be disappointed.
Verdict: Champ
