RADIO
I’m not the type of person to commonly use a specific draft strategy. I like to stress letting the value come to you. It helps that I have my own rankings and I can work off of those for every draft. In using my own rankings, I find myself going running back heavy early and still being able to grab a healthy mix of upside and reliability at wide receiver much later in the draft. The more I mock, the more I am convinced that this is the best way to go in 2015.
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The Dropoff at RB and TE is Steeper Than WR
Looking at my rankings, I would say there are three tiers and 18 RBs that I feel very comfortable with getting a workhorse number of carries and starting for my team. That list goes from Eddie Lacy and Jamaal Charles down to Jonathan Stewart and Frank Gore. Obviously those last two have their share of concerns in health and age but if they are healthy they are the clear primary backs for their teams.
After my RB18 I see a clear cliff to my fourth tier of guys where we start seeing unproven players or at least guys I can’t count on for 200+ carries over the course of the season. There is certainly upside here in guys like rookies T.J. Yeldon and Tevin Coleman, or in the unproven but expected workhorses Latavius Murray and Joseph Randle but they are very far from a sure thing. As a result, I most often find myself grabbing a trio of guys like DeMarco Murray, Jeremy Hill, and Justin Forsett in the first three rounds.
One can certainly argue against each of these guys but the indisputable fact is that they’ve already proven themselves with an RB1 season and the capability to handle a feature back workload. I’ve already made my case for why DeMarco is not a risky pick in the first round. Knowing that injuries are virtually a guarantee at the RB position and knowing we can't accurately predict who will get injured, I feel very secure having not just two, but three of my top RBs.
I feel similarly about the tight end position where I will happily take Rob Gronkowski in the late 1st or early 2nd over almost any WR. Then you have Jimmy Graham who is still a great player but clearly not in Gronk territory followed by Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce and Martellus Bennett who are all pretty similar in value before a massive drop-off to Zach Ertz and Julius Thomas. TE ends up being another position that I put a high priority on grabbing one of these five over any WRs at the same price. I do really like the upside of Zach Ertz but much like at RB, I feel great when I get one of the first five guys who I’ve already seen deliver a strong season. You do have guys like Julius Thomas and Antonio Gates who were strong last year but with Thomas’ extreme change in QB quality and Gates’ suspension I will be avoiding those two players.
The Later Rounds are Filled With Very Good Wide Receivers
Now that I’ve made my case for why it’s important to grab your RBs and TE before the perceived drop in quality, why isn’t this the case at WR? Well, unlike the running back position where you can grab a guy like Doug Martin or Bishop Sankey late and hope he starts and gets plenty of carries, you can grab several WR2s (on their team that is) and know they will be starting every game and playing a high percentage of snaps. If we look at Fantasy Football Calculator for 2014 ADP data at the end of the preseason we can find a number of guys that were WR2s on their own team (or at least expected to be) that finished in the top 24 at the position. These include DeSean Jackson (5th round), Golden Tate (7th Round) or even much later and in true zero WR fashion: Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith and DeAndre Hopkins all in the 10th round. Every single one of those guys finished in the top 24 in standard scoring.
Let’s take a look at RB and WR to see how many players were drafted outside the first four rounds and finished in the top 24 at their position. I emphasized the word drafted because I’m not counting players that popped up out of nowhere (players like Justin Forsett) that anyone would have had a chance to grab and were not at all a consideration on draft day.
| Players finishing in the top 24 at their position in 2014 | |||
| Drafted first four rounds | Drafted After First Four Rounds | Undrafted | |
| RB | 12 | 9 | 3 |
| WR | 10 | 12 | 2 |
What this tells us is that although you could certainly find success going early or waiting at either position you were more likely to be successful going RB early and WR late. If we expand the criteria to the top 30 players at each position we would see the RB numbers move to 14-11-5 and WR at 11-15-4.
This year, I see more of the same which might be obvious if you’ve read my several sleeper pieces on undervalued wide receivers. Let me list off some guys being drafted outside the top 30 WRs that I really like with a mix of upside and veteran reliability: Mike Wallace, Allen Robinson, Larry Fitzgerald, Nelson Agholor, Charles Johnson, Torrey Smith, Marques Colston and Marvin Jones. I could have continued but it would be a very long list. This gives you a good idea of the receivers you can find late in the draft that may finish in the top 24. Not all of them will, but you can bet at least some of them do. The important thing for me is that all of those guys are safe bets to be on the field for a majority of snaps as a starting receiver. They will have their opportunities.
How about we look at some of the top running backs going outside the top 30 right now? Isaiah Crowell, Ameer Abdullah, Doug Martin, Chris Ivory and Bishop Sankey. While all of these guys have opportunities to be the lead back, none of them are sure things. Ivory and Martin are probably the safest bets to be feature backs here but it’s currently more likely to be a committee thus limiting their upside.
Rookie WRs Provide More Value in Recent Years but Still Come at a Major Discount
Earlier you may have noticed I didn’t even mention any rookies that could be steals in the draft. Just last year we saw five rookie receivers finish in the top 30 at the position and another provide serious PPR value (Jarvis Landry). The highest any of them was drafted was WR35, that being Kelvin Benjamin who we knew would be the #1 receiver in Carolina with a decent quarterback. Even then fantasy owners shied away from him because he was an unknown as a rookie.
We’ve seen at least rookie two receivers finish in the top 30 each of the past four years yet the only one to be drafted within the top 30 was Julio Jones at WR26 and he still exceeded his ADP by finishing as WR17. The value that rookie receivers provide would seem to be a result of the belief that rookie receivers often struggle. This was more true in the past. We saw just 7 rookie receivers hit 900+ yards from 2000-09 with none hitting double digit touchdowns. In the past five years, we’ve seen an an additional eight receivers exceed 900 yards and three have had double digit touchdowns. In recent years rookie receivers are seeing more opportunities on the field and proving themselves ready and able to contribute significantly.
That brings us to this year and so far it seems like mock drafters are making an exception for one rookie already, that being Amari Cooper. Cooper is being drafted as the WR21 and has been touted as one of the most complete and NFL ready receivers that scouts have seen. Outside of Cooper, drafters seem to be sticking to past trends with no other rookie inside the top 30 ADP despite eight additional receivers being drafted in the first 41 picks. Much like last year, several of them have plenty of talent and an opportunity to play significant snaps from the start.
Let’s identify four rookies besides Cooper drafted in those first 41 picks who are expected to start right away. Those are Nelson Agholor (ADP WR35), Breshad Perriman (WR43), Dorial Green-Beckham (WR54) and Devin Funchess (WR70). Perriman and Funchess in particular have very little competition to be one of the top two receivers for their teams. Agholor provides really nice value in a great offense if you don’t think Riley Cooper or Josh Huff are any threats (They aren’t). Dorial Green-Beckham’s chances just got a whole lot better with the arrest of Justin Hunter. His other competition to start alongside Kendall Wright include Harry Douglas and Hakeem Nicks. I like DGB’s chances there.
Notably absent from these rookies are Kevin White (WR30 and falling) and DeVante Parker (WR50). Bears HC John Fox is notorious for bringing rookies along very slowly. Cody Latimer barely saw the field last year in Denver although Kevin White’s competition is much weaker in Eddie Royal and Marquess Wilson. Parker is one of my favorite receivers in this draft but he is coming off foot surgery and his competition is strong with Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, and Greg Jennings. Whether you employ the zero WR draft strategy or not you should seriously consider grabbing one of these rookie receivers.
Conclusion
As mentioned previously, I don’t usually stick to any particular strategy but if you want to wait on a position, WR is the one to wait on this year. You can grab your workhorse backs early, get one of the top tight ends and then start working on the WR position. If you’ve done your research you will assuredly find your team packed with upside at the position and even guys that have given us several straight years of WR2 numbers but are being ignored because they aren’t the ‘sexy’ pick. No matter what kind of player you prefer, the later rounds have WRs to offer you be it the ol’ reliables like Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, the ascending young talents like Charles Johnson and Allen Robinson or the totally unproven rookies like Perriman and DGB. Ideally you employ a mix of all three types but the nice part is it’s all there. There are always risks with ignoring a specific position for the first several rounds but WR is by far the safest bet to do so and it looks like the pros outweigh the cons.
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