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Jeremy's deep dive into starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, waiver wire adds for Week 23 of 2026. Are these unlikely aces potential league winners?
It's time for the Week 23 edition of our Unlikely Aces column for the 2026 fantasy baseball season. In this piece, we discuss surprising pitchers who are going above and beyond expectations, providing your team with unlikely ace production that not many were expecting. Some performances are more sustainable than others, so we'll dive into each pitcher to see how likely it is for them to maintain their recent form.
Starting pitching is by far the most volatile and risky position in fantasy, as every year plenty of top arms are sidelined with injuries. Luckily, there are also plenty of waiver wire gems and post-draft breakouts that allow fantasy managers to fill the gaps and hopefully bring home a championship trophy.
This week, we're focusing on Ian Seymour, Michael Wacha, and Eduardo Rodriguez. While they're most likely rostered outside of shallow leagues, they could factor into crucial start-or-sit decisions that could decide your fantasy playoffs. Without further ado, let's get into whether these pitchers can keep up their recent form. For reference, all roster percentages listed are taken from Yahoo leagues.
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Ian Seymour, Tampa Bay Rays
65% Rostered
Ian Seymour looked great in his most recent start on Monday against the Mets, striking out 10 batters over 6 ⅓ solid innings. He allowed three runs on six hits while walking none. This was his fourth straight start of allowing exactly three runs, which doesn't lead to the best ERA, but it's enough to qualify for a quality start while he provides great strikeout production.
This was the second double-digit strikeout performance of the season for the lefty, topped only by his 12-strikeout gem against the Yankees on July 7th. After a few rough starts in July had people questioning how reliable Seymour would be down the stretch, he put all those concerns to rest in August.
Through six August starts spanning 35 innings, the 27-year-old has punched out 48 batters and only walked four while posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. That works out to a 32.7% strikeout rate and 29.9% K-BB%, which are both elite marks. Hitters are fooled often with a 35.5% chase rate this season, and his 3.45 xFIP is much better than his 4.21 ERA.
Ian Seymour led the Majors with a 29.9% K-BB rate in August.
1. Ian Seymour 29.9%
2. Jesús Luzardo 27.8%
3. Cade Cavalli 27%
4. Jacob Misiorowski 26.1%#RaysUppic.twitter.com/zokRJuUE79— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) September 1, 2026
It's important to note that his ERA is inflated for a reason, as Seymour has problems with the long ball. Even in his dominant August stretch, the starter allowed eight homers in those six starts, and he's allowed 20 in the season as a whole. That's further reflected in his 9.5% barrel rate and 33.8% groundball rate, as the fly ball tendencies come back to bite him often.
Verdict: Seymour likely won't help your team in ERA, but he'll be a solid contributor everywhere else. Strikeouts are the name of his game, and it's rare to find a pitcher with this much strikeout upside that isn't already considered a fantasy ace. The Rays prove time and time again that they are among the best in the league at developing pitchers, and Seymour is the most recent success story, a must-start pitcher in fantasy.
Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals
71% Rostered
Michael Wacha delivered his best start of the season on Friday, tossing eight shutout innings with ten strikeouts against the Guardians. He allowed four hits and walked none. This gem continued a dominant second half for the veteran, who has looked like a completely different pitcher since mid-July.
Vintage Michael Wacha tonight.
Best start of the year. A near perfect outing. pic.twitter.com/sSKZeNAw4U
— Royals Muse (@KCRoyalsMuse) August 29, 2026
While his 3.77 ERA and 1.19 WHIP were modest in the first half, he's been the definition of an ace since, posting a 2.28 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in eight starts since July 20th. He excels by executing top-notch control, as his 6.1% walk rate ranks in the 88th percentile. His current 3.32 ERA would be his best mark in a season since 2023, showing there's still plenty left in the tank at 35 years old.
However, the underlying metrics don't necessarily tell the same story for this second-half breakout. While there have been significant improvements across his surface-level ratios between halves of the season, his FIP has actually gotten slightly worse, falling from 3.98 to 4.08. Additionally, his barrel rate increased from 6.3% to 8.0%, and his hard-hit rate rose from 36.4% to 37.3%.
Overall, his batted ball metrics have been slightly worse in the second half, while his strikeout rate has only climbed by 0.4%. By all accounts, he looks to be about the same guy he was in the first three months of the year, which brings into question how sustainable this recent play is.
Verdict: I don't buy Wacha's ace-like numbers, as he's clearly pitching a bit over his head at the moment. However, the righty has proven over his long 14-year career that he's generally worth starting as a back-of-rotation arm in fantasy. This is definitely a hot streak worth riding out over the final month of the season, but just don't expect him to be quite this good the entire time. Wacha will face the Marlins on Thursday and the Diamondbacks next week, which makes him a solid back-end option in most playoff matchups.
Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks
80% Rostered
Entering his Tuesday night start against the Phillies, Eduardo Rodriguez was on a roll. He posted back-to-back scoreless outings against the Cubs and Reds across 15 ⅔ total innings, and dating back four starts, he allowed only four total runs across 28 ⅔ frames. Two of those four starts included nine strikeouts, as the veteran has been a great fantasy option as of late.
Eduardo Rodríguez's 7th K thru 5 pic.twitter.com/dfhxRgLOA4
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 26, 2026
Things didn't go quite as smoothly against the Phillies on Tuesday, but it was also far from a disaster. The 33-year-old allowed three runs on eight hits and three walks over five innings while striking out three. That's not the end of the world against a hot Phillies offense, but it did snap his streak of ace-like production.
That has been the story of this season for the lefty, who has consistently sprinkled in moments of brilliance in between other mediocre stretches. Rodriguez started the season allowing only one earned run through his first 18 innings, and he's tossed at least seven scoreless innings in five total outings this season.
While he does have some pretty uninspiring performances here and there, his season ERA sits at an excellent 2.59, despite a 3.70 FIP and 4.38 xFIP. His 17.8% strikeout rate ranks in just the 18th percentile, while his barrel rate, groundball rate, and walk rate all hover around league average. With a 24th percentile xBA of .258, it's surprising that Rodriguez has been effective at all, let alone having one of the lowest ERAs in the league.
It's also not like the starter has been especially dominant over his career with a good track record to fall back on, making this breakout even more head-scratching. He's coming off two straight seasons with an ERA over 5.00, while he's posted an ERA under 4.00 just four times in his 11-season career, doing so back in 2015, 2018, 2019, and 2023.
Verdict: While I do not fully trust his profile, he continues to get the job done. With only a month left in the season, any hot streak is worth taking advantage of, but just be wary of the matchups. He falls in the same tier as Wacha for me, who should still be considered a middle-to-back-end rotation piece despite top-end production as of late. The southpaw will take on the Royals next Monday, which makes him a favorable starting option in the fantasy playoffs.
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