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Joshua Costello's 10 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2026 MLB season, including predictions for Juan Soto, Cole Ragans, Edwin Diaz, and more.
With spring training rapidly approaching and draft season around the corner, it's time to put my 2026 bold predictions out into the universe. After an unpredictable 2025 season, I will attempt to do the impossible and forecast some outcomes for the upcoming year.
These predictions are not the likeliest outcomes, but they are within the realm of possibility, and there are reasons to believe they could come to fruition. I will share that data and the reasoning behind these decisions to show why these players could be difference-makers this season.
Without further ado, here are my bold predictions for the 2026 season. Hopefully, when it's all said and done, more of these are right than they are wrong!
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Juan Soto Wins the NL MVP Award
Starting with a big one, the National League Most Valuable Player Award for the 2026 season will end up in the hands of Juan Soto.
Soto has now started back-to-back seasons with the same club since he left the Washington Nationals. The superstar also hasn't hit over .300 since the 2021 season. Soto will now get the chance to shine in his sophomore season with the New York Mets with a full season and offseason under his belt to settle in.
Despite batting just .263 in 2025, the southpaw managed to mash 43 home runs and drive in 105 runs. It's not unrealistic to believe that a little consistency could complement Soto's game.
If the 27-year-old can maintain his elite power production while bouncing back from the second-lowest BABIP season of his career, then he has a good shot of dethroning Shohei Ohtani. There could also be a bit of voter fatigue that shifts votes away from Ohtani, similar to what happened to Mike Trout in the prime of his career.
It is also important to add that Soto's quality-of-contact stats were among the best in the league in 2025. Nearly every category is bright red and in the 96th percentile or higher.
Despite consistently underperforming his expected stats, Soto is in the prime of his career and is primed for a career year in a lineup that has added some big names in the offseason.
The Mets said goodbye to Pete Alonso, but welcomed Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Robert Jr. this winter. Soto could be the best hitter in one of the most potent lineups in baseball this season, which only bodes well for his MVP odds. He is an excellent selection worth reaching for in the top half of the opening round in all drafts.
Cole Ragans Wins the AL Cy Young Award
Kansas City Royals lefty Cole Ragans has arguably been the most underrated pitcher in baseball the last few seasons. Sure, the fantasy community is well-aware of his abilities, but he's far from a household name and is routinely left out of conversations discussing the best pitchers in the league. I think this is the year that changes.
During the 2024 season, Ragans posted 32 starts, recording a 3.14 ERA over 186 1/3 innings. He's truly been nails since the second half of the 2023 season when the Royals acquired him.
Ragans had an injury-plagued 2025 season, throwing just 61 2/3 innings in 13 starts. Despite his limited appearances, the southpaw showed some improvements that have me excited for 2026.
The 28-year-old effectively ditched his cutter and threw nearly 50% four-seam fastballs. The shift between the rest of his pitch mix was negligible, but there was a dramatic change in his results.
Ragans saw his K% jump from 29.3% in 2024 to an elite 38.1% in 2025, placing him in the 100th percentile among qualified pitchers. He also saw his xERA drop from 3.25 to 2.67, and his xFIP dropped from 3.46 to 2.45. The Royals pitcher also saw a full percentage-point bump in both the called strike rate and the swinging strike rate year over year. Admittedly, it is a much smaller sample size, but it does make one wonder if Ragans found something in his new approach.
Ragans finished the 2025 season with a 4.67 ERA, but his xERA of 2.67 suggests a bit of bad luck. If he can pick up where he left off last year, Ragans will be a value in the third round of fantasy drafts and a dark-horse Cy Young candidate.
Luis Robert Jr. Hits .250 and Mashes 25 Home Runs in Bounce-Back Season
The New York Mets acquired Robert via trade with the Chicago White Sox in exchange for young infielder Luisangel Acuna and right-hander Truman Pauley, and this move could prove advantageous for the talented outfielder.
The past couple of seasons have been truly dreadful for Robert, plagued by injuries and poor play, but there are some reasons for optimism. Despite his terrible offensive contributions, Robert has remained an excellent defender in the outfield. He finished the 2025 season in the 87th percentile for fielding run value and in the 93rd percentile in fielding range.
Robert's age is also a plus, as he's only 28 despite being a six-year veteran in the league. He should have plenty of good years ahead of him if the Mets are able to steer him right.
The Mets outfielder also possesses exceptional physical ability, as shown by his 92nd percentile bat speed and 90th percentile sprint speed. If Robert can polish his approach and use that physicality to his advantage, he will be a dangerous bat to face in the New York lineup.
Luis Robert Jr. hammers a game-tying home run! pic.twitter.com/e2K7IMoCVd
— MLB (@MLB) June 13, 2024
Robert delivered the best season of his career back in 2023, mashing 38 home runs while batting .264 in 145 games. In each of the last two seasons, Robert has hit 14 home runs while batting under .225. Perhaps a lack of motivation and confidence held Robert back in Chicago, but a change of scenery could be what he needs.
The Chicago White Sox have won 101 total games since the beginning of the 2024 season, compared to 172 wins for the New York Mets. Being in a winning environment could bring a welcome mentality change for Robert's approach to the game. It also helps that his lineup is expected to be one of the best in baseball.
Robert's health will always be a question, but he certainly has the ability and opportunity to have a massive bounce-back season with the Mets. Batting .250 and hitting 25 home runs seems completely within the realm of possibility of Robert in 2026.
Eury Perez Wins the NL Cy Young Award
Emerging Marlins ace Eury Perez has two MLB seasons under his belt. He's started 39 games, compiling a 3.71 ERA in 186 2/3 innings. Nothing incredibly remarkable there, but there's more.
Perez had an excellent rookie season in 2023, striking out 10.64 K/9 and finishing with a 3.15 ERA. He missed the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery but returned in 2025 to make his sophomore debut.
The Miami right-hander finished the year with a 4.25 ERA, but his xERA and xFIP were both lower than his rookie season numbers.
Perez ran into a bit of bad luck last year, but he regained his velocity following Tommy John surgery and showed flashes of brilliance in his return. He's a flamethrowing righty with 94th percentile fastball velocity and a wipeout slider that drops off the table.
Perez was one of the talk of the town when he burst onto the scene in 2023, but now he could be considered a bit of a post-hype sleeper, since he didn't have the greatest 2025 season on paper.
He's got two seasons under his belt, and he's still only 22 years old. The sky is the limit for Perez, and with Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara on the team to mentor him, we could be in for a dominant year.
Atlanta Braves Win the NL East
The Atlanta Braves had a disastrous year by their recent standards, finishing 10 games below .500 and 20 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the division, so predicting that they win the National League East division definitely falls in the bold category.
The Phillies have one of the best rotations in baseball with a powerhouse lineup, and the Mets just made several key acquisitions in the offseason to improve their squad, but the Braves could still take it for a few reasons.
For one, they have one of the most dynamic superstars in the league in Ronald Acuna Jr. Capable of hitting 40 home runs and stealing 70 bases, Acuna is a game-changer on both sides of the ball and is entering spring training fully healthy. Atlanta also has some of the game's best power hitters manning their corner infield positions.
Matt Olson and Austin Riley can flip the script on any single pitch, depositing balls well over 400 feet. Other hitters like Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy, Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris II, and more round out the team's lineup of All-Stars.
The Braves also have some of the best starting pitching in baseball. With a rotation led by Chris Sale and Spencer Strider, the Atlanta pitching staff can hang with anyone.
While their division is tough, the Braves are just one year removed from finishing six games back of the Phillies. The 2026 NL East division race could be close, and Atlanta could be the top dog when it's all said and done.
If the Braves finish at the top of the NL East, expect Acuna to provide a massive return for those who invest a first-round pick in him.
Edwin Diaz Tops 50 Saves
The new closer for the Los Angeles Dodgers could be the first pitcher to eclipse 50 saves since he achieved the feat back in 2018 as a member of the Seattle Mariners.
Diaz may be a 31-year-old, nine-year veteran in the league, but his skills have not tapered off one bit. The flamethrower finished the 2025 season in the 98th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, Whiff%, and K%. His ability to put hitters away puts him in the upper echelon of today's closers.
With all the Dodgers' struggles to close out games last season, having Diaz take over the role should allow the coaching staff and fans to breathe a sigh of relief.
It was a rocky 2025 season for their previous closer, Tanner Scott. Scott had the fifth-most save opportunities in the National League with 33, but only managed to turn those opportunities into 23 saves. Diaz had 31 save opportunities with the New York Mets in 2025 and converted 28 of them.
Given Scott's struggles in the closer role, the Dodgers decided to rotate opportunities more often and give other arms a look. The Dodgers won 54 games by three runs or fewer in 2025, meaning more potential save opportunities than the ones given to Scott.
Given Diaz's established reputation as arguably the best closer in baseball, he will likely have more save opportunities given to him than Scott saw in 2025. The addition of Kyle Tucker to the offense could also mean more wins than the 93 they amassed last season.
If the Dodgers push for more than 110 wins without blowing everyone out, Diaz will have a realistic shot to surpass 50 saves in 2026.
Baltimore Orioles Win the AL East
This is arguably the boldest prediction of them all, but I do think there's a chance the Baltimore Orioles walk away with the American League East division at the end of the year. The Orioles finished last season with a 75-87 record, 12 games under .500, and 19 games back from the Blue Jays and the Yankees at 94-68.
A lot of things did not go the Orioles' way in 2025, but one of the most impactful reasons for their downfall was Gunnar Henderson's underperformance.
Henderson made a massive jump from 2023 to 2024, improving his batting average from .255 to .281, hitting nine more home runs, and stealing 11 more bases. The younger slugger seemed primed to continue his ascent, but his 2025 season was a step back.
Henderson stumbled out of the gates with an intercostal strain and never seemed to fully regain his power, finishing the year with just 17 home runs and 68 RBI. Henderson did have his struggles, but so did the entire Orioles lineup.
The Orioles offense had .328 xwOBA and 114 wRC+ in 2024, then dropped to .312 xwOBA and 96 wRC+. Their powerful lineup dropped from a borderline top-5 offense to the 20th-best year-over-year. Despite their struggles, Baltimore has good hitters destined to bounce back, and the addition of Alonso on a massive five-year, $155 million contract and Taylor Ward can only help.
The Orioles also have an underrated rotation with Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells, Zach Eflin, Trevor Rogers, Cade Povich, and Shane Baz. They may lack the flashy top-end starters the other AL East teams have, but they make up for it with a plethora of solid rotation arms and a budding ace in Bradish.
The Orioles finished the 2024 season with a 91-71 record, just three games behind the Yankees for first place. If they can revive their offense, Baltimore can easily be in the mix to win the American League East.
Nico Hoerner Hits 20 Home Runs
Admittedly, I may be buying into the offseason hype with this one, but it would be a welcome sight to see this one come true.
Perhaps the best BP session I've ever seen from Cubs Nico Hoerner happened today. Flawless, repeatable mechanics while depositing many balls well over the wall. His final round delivered 4 HR in 5 swings, totaling 6 or 7 that round alone (each similarly around 410-420 ft.) pic.twitter.com/jQirz5MHfo
— John Antonoff (@baseballinfocus) February 7, 2026
Hoerner has been one of the steadiest sources of batting average and defense among middle infielders since he entered the league. His value as a hitter, base-stealer, and defender to the Chicago Cubs cannot be understated. That said, he's a contact hitter who has never hit more than 10 home runs in a season.
There have been whispers that Hoerner is adding a power stroke to his game, and the video above is just fanning the hype. It is not unrealistic to expect a contact hitter to add some power to his game in the offseason. Just last year, Otto Lopez jumped up to 15 home runs after hitting just six in 2o24.
Hoerner could benefit from adjusting his pull air rate to maximize the odds of his flyballs turning into home runs, similar to Jeff McNeil, who finished 13th among qualified hitters in pull air rate.
A refined swing and an offseason to bulk up could be the difference between Hoerner being a 10-homer hitter and a 20-homer guy.
Chandler Simpson Hits .320 and Steals 70 Bases
Tampa Bay Rays Chandler Simpson was one of the most electric rookies in baseball when he was on the field last season. Despite only playing in 109 games, Simpson finished second in the league in steals with 44.
44 stolen bases in 109 games averages out to approximately 0.404 stolen bases per game. If we extrapolate that rate over a 162-game season, Simpson would have 65.4 stolen bases at that pace. 65 stolen bases would be a great mark, I believe there's still room for growth.
Despite finishing second in the league in steals, the rookie also finished with the most caught stealing. His skill set is there to improve as a baserunner with more reps against big-league pitching.
I think 70 stolen bases is definitely on the table this season. Now for the other half of this prediction, the batting average.
Simpson hit .295 during his rookie season, but he routinely hit over .330 in the minors across 2024 and 2025. The main difference between his major and minor league tenures is his ground-ball rate.
Simpson will likely always be a high-ground-ball-rate type of hitter. That rate hovered around 50% during his time in the minors, but it sat at 59.4% in the majors. If he can find a way to bring that ground-ball rate down just a touch, his batting average should be able to climb.
Jac Caglianone Hits 35 Home Runs
The Royals slugger Jac Caglianone was a force to be reckoned with in the minor leagues, basically bullying his way to a major league call-up. Once he arrived, he didn't find nearly the same level of success, but there are reasons to believe in him this season.
Caglianone's raw power is a sight to behold when he gets his barrel to the ball. His 77.4 mph average bat speed would rank fifth in the league if he had enough at-bats to qualify. He would routinely hit moonshots in the minors, and we caught a few glimpses of that during his rookie campaign.
466 FEET!
Absolutely crushed by Jac Caglianone 🤯 pic.twitter.com/XnBCIDqKvR
— MLB (@MLB) July 10, 2025
On July 9, 2025, Caglianone mashed a ball 466 feet to the deepest part of Kauffman Stadium. Not many humans can hit a ball that far, but Caglianone can.
Caglianone hit 27 home runs in 128 games across the minors and majors last season. With a full offseason to prepare, I'm fully prepared for a breakout season. Given his prodigious power, 35 home runs is a high bar but an achievable one for the sophomore slugger. With the fences moving in at Kauffman Stadium ahead of the 2026 season, Caglianone's path to a 35-HR season is even more achievable.
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