January 9, 2026

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Nick Pivetta was one of the top value picks at the position in 2025 drafts. After spending four and a half seasons in Boston, Pivetta moved out West and turned in a career season. The right-hander logged 181 2/3 innings to the tune of a 2.87 ERA and a stellar 0.99 WHIP, both of which were career highs. Pivetta racked up 190 punchouts and showed strong command, walking hitters at a 6.9% rate. After spending his career in Boston and Philadelphia, Pivetta found success despite his high fly-ball profile, pitching at Petco Park. Last season, Pivetta placed in the 13th percentile in ground-ball rate but still turned in elite ratios given his favorable home setting. According to Statcast, Petco Park ranks fifth-lowest in overall Park Factor and eighth-lowest in xwOBACon (over the past three seasons). While his sparkling 2.36 ERA at home showcases the benefit of pitching in San Diego, when on the road, Pivetta was more in line with his typical marks, carrying a 3.55 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. Under the hood, he generated an overall 3.99 xERA, placing him in the 49th percentile. Even though he will still call Petco Park home in 2026, which will keep his ratios lower, managers should expect his ERA to creep back into the mid-3.00s given his underlying marks this upcoming season. He is a fine target as a high-end SP3 sitting with a 94.3 ADP on NFBC drafts, as he should remain a safe target for strikeouts and WHIP, given his above-average command.--Andy Smith