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Expert Week 4 Thursday Night Football bets, anytime TD scorer, and player prop predictions. Free TNF betting picks, anytime TD scorer, and player props for Week 4.
Thursday Night Football heads to Arizona this week for a divisional matchup between the 2-1 Arizona Cardinals and 2-1 Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks destroyed the Saints 44-13 last week, good for the second-largest margin of victory so far this season. Arizona, on the other hand, is coming off a tough one-point loss to San Francisco.
Seattle broke out for at least 40 points in a game for the first time in nearly three years, with the most recent game coming on October 2, 2022, against the Lions. Things look positive in Seattle as their defense has been flying around as well. Arizona, while sitting with a 2-1 record, hasn't looked the greatest in either win. Coming off a divisional loss at San Francisco, it'll be important to bounce back at home.
Can the Cardinals defend homefield and avoid a back-to-back loss? Or will the Seahawks continue their dominance from the week before? Let's get to the picks!
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Thursday Night Football Odds and Spread
Seattle Seahawks -1.5 (-126 ML) at Arizona Cardinals (+108 ML)
Over/Under (43.5)
The Seahawks defense has been great through three games, allowing the second fewest points in the league (47), only behind the Packers. They don't rate as highly in other traditional and advanced categories, ranking 16th in EPA/Play against the pass but second against the run. The story of the Saints game, however, was their excellence on special teams. In the first quarter, they returned a punt for a touchdown, and then immediately forced a three-and-out, and then blocked the punt to set up a short touchdown. Rookie wide receiver Tory Horton had a day with the 95-yard punt return touchdown and then caught a 14-yard touchdown pass in the second quarter.
the endzone angles of Tory Horton's 95 yard punt return TD are the good stuff. Can see him hit the lanes as they develop and gets the monster block from Chazz Surratt at the end. pic.twitter.com/wCE0IosCjy
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 23, 2025
Perhaps the more exciting story is how good Sam Darnold and the offense have looked so far. Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks like he has taken the next step and ascended into superstardom. The offensive line, while still not perfect, looks better. Darnold is PFF's No. 1 graded QB so far this season, crazy enough. It's a low-volume passing attack, but he's been on time and accurate consistently to all depths of the field. He's been high-end in that regard, posting an 11.6% Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) this season, second in football only behind Jared Goff. Plus, he's made tough throws in muddy pockets and showed off some of his mobility with nifty plays on the move.
Quarterback grade and efficiency through week 3 (pending MNF)
Yes that's Sam Darnold as your top-graded QB through 3 weeks.
Darnold was also the highest-graded QB in week 3 alone. pic.twitter.com/s6eHZMBDan
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) September 22, 2025
Darnold is playing some of his best ball right now, and people are starting to recognize it. That feels a little dangerous, especially with a short week coming up on the road. He has played in six career games on Thursday nights, averaging 194 passing yards with a 59% completion percentage, and has four touchdowns to three interceptions. Kyler Murray, on the other hand, has played in four Thursday night games and averages 247 passing yards with a 69% completion percentage and five touchdowns to two interceptions.
Thursday Night Football Game Picks
We'll take a similar approach to last week in terms of looking at previous years' matchups to get a feel for both sides of Thursday night's game. Specifically, we'll look at the games these starting quarterbacks have played against the teams' opposing head coaches. Head coaches Mike Macdonald and Jonathan Gannon both previously served as defensive coordinators for two years before accepting head coaching positions in back-to-back coaching cycles. Macdonald was pegged as the defensive Sean McVay by some for how complex and challenging his defensive scheme with Baltimore was for opposing offenses. Gannon piloted a Philadelphia defense that led the league in sacks in 2022 on its way to a close Super Bowl defeat.
Sam Darnold faced Gannon once with Arizona and once with Philadelphia. The game against Arizona last season was a mixed bag for Darnold. He took a season-high five sacks as he faced a season-high 53.8% Pressure Rate. But he was clutch, delivering over 250 total yards and two touchdowns, including a game-winning touchdown pass with 1:13 left in the game to win their fifth game in a row.
His other game against Jonathan Gannon came all the way back in 2021, when Darnold was with the Panthers. It came during Week 5 of the season, and for those who remember, Carolina started 3-0 that year. They had just come off a respectable shootout loss in Dallas, where Darnold made a good amount of mistakes with five sacks and two interceptions, but made up for it a tad with 301 yards and two touchdowns.
The following week was against the Eagles and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. It was one of the worst games of his overall mediocre 2021 season and one of the worst of his career. He completed 21 of 37 passes for 177 yards with a touchdown, but the negatives were backbreaking, with three interceptions and three sacks. By yards per attempt (4.8), it was the seventh-worst out of 76 career starts. In the first four weeks, Darnold didn't have a game below 7.7 yards per attempt. After he faced Gannon in Week 5, he didn't have a single game above 6.0 yards per attempt the rest of the season.
On the flip side, Kyler Murray has the two games he played against Seattle last year. Additionally, he played Baltimore in the second game of his NFL career when Mike Macdonald was on staff as the linebackers coach. It is not that meaningful as Wink Martindale was the defensive coordinator at the time, and his defensive style is different than Macdonald's. However, despite the loss, it remains one of Murray's most prolific days as a passer in his career. He completed 25 of 40 passes for 349 yards, which is the sixth most he's ever had in a game.
Directly facing Macdonald as the head coach last season, Murray was mostly below average in the two starts. They lost both games and scored only 24 points combined. In the first matchup, he took five sacks, the most of the season. And then two weeks later, he threw two interceptions with one of his worst CPOE marks in a game that season.
The Seahawks feel like one of the more complete teams in the NFC at the moment. They do want to play at a slower pace, however, and with two solid defenses, we'd lean to the under. Sam Darnold is a credible, average to above-average QB who can go on heaters to deliver explosive plays. He's currently sixth in Explosive Pass Rate (13.5%) through three games, while the Cardinals have been among the best at preventing explosive plays through the air (5.6%), ranking third. Arizona is more middle of the pack in allowing explosive runs, which is something that Kenneth Walker is waiting to provide. I think Walker breaks a couple of explosive plays while Darnold manages the game, and the defense stifles Murray.
The Picks: Seattle -1.5, (-108), Under 43.5 (-115)
Thursday Night Football Player Props
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Trey McBride Over 6.5 Receptions (-102)
McBride is an absolute beast who racks up receptions every game. He has not yet had seven receptions in a game this season, but eclipsed that mark eight times last season and is set up with, in theory, a good matchup. Seattle has allowed the most receptions to tight ends this season, with 24. The volume is just so consistent, as he has no less than seven targets in all but one of his last 10 games dating back to last season. He has seven games of double-digit targets since the start of last season. The reception totals should continue to be high because he's been a low aDOT player, and these balls have very high probability catch rates.
Sam Darnold to Throw an Interception (-113)
Some of Darnold's struggles in his brief time against Gannon were discussed above. He's already thrown two interceptions on the season, with both of them coming on the road against the Steelers. Darnold hasn't been careless with the ball or anything, with just one turnover-worthy play on the year so far, but it feels like a spot for him to come back down to earth a bit. Arizona has some defensive backs playing some really good ball despite some injuries. Rookie corner Will Johnson looks like a hit already, grading as the 10th-best corner so far by PFF. Cardinals' defensive backs have gotten plenty of hands on balls with the second-most passes defended (23), but the 12th most interceptions (2). For what it's worth, Jacksonville has the most passes defended with 28 and the most interceptions with seven.
Kyler Murray Over 5,5 Rushing Attempts (-114)
Murray has been running more this season, clearing this line in every game so far. More and more time has passed since his knee injury, and he looks as fast as ever when running right now. While he's scrambled less so far this year, the Seattle defense ranks fourth in the NFL in Pressure Rate at 44.3%. Murray's response to pressure is often to run in those situations.
Trey Benson Anytime Touchdown (+110)
Benson should slide in as the Cardinals' workhorse after James Conner is now unfortunately out for the season. The coaching staff has already totally talked up Benson as the guy in the backfield, expressing complete confidence in his abilities on all three downs. That drumbeat has been consistent since the summer, even with Conner healthy. They were saying he was going to play a big role for them this year, and now, well, things have obviously changed, and now he will have to play a major role. He has looked explosive on his touches so far, and has good size, so he shouldn't get vultured at the goal line.
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