MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/13/2025)

August 13, 2025

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/13/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Matt Wallner, Juan Soto, Colson Montgomery and others.

Usually, if I hit one home run bet out of four or five, it's enough to break even or make a small profit. That's because I rarely bet on HR props under +250, and I often try to target players with longer odds. The last two slates that I've written up here at RotoBaller, I've hit two of five props and made a tidy profit. So, as they say, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." I'm back with five more HR props today and trying to keep a hot streak going.

The strategy for targeting home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible. I try not to pick the obvious plays, especially when the plan is to use them in a round-robin format. Hitting a couple of value home runs when we can provides significant upside in a round robin.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, August 13, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/13/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Wednesday, August 13:

• Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox
• Matt Wallner, Minnesota Twins
• Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
• Juan Soto, New York Mets
• Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays

Colson Montgomery OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+420 FanDuel)

The rookie infielder has made quite an impact for Chicago already, slugging 10 home runs in his first 113 at-bats. He's hit more off righties than lefties, but I like his matchup here today against a hard-throwing prospect.

Monty and the ChiSox face Detroit rookie right-handed Troy Melton. It's only 17 innings so far, but Melton has not been able to replicate the dominant stats that he put up in the minors this season. He's shown some strikeout ability, but has also given up some very hard contact. His 12.5% barrel rate is the second-worst number on the slate today, and his 1.56 HR/9 ranks seventh-worst.

I just can’t believe how good Colson Montgomery is.pic.twitter.com/aMXSl6MEwz

— Mike (@ChiSoxFanMike) August 12, 2025

Monty has crushed sliders, cutters, and sinkers this year. Those are all three pitches that Melton deploys to support his fastball. With two homers in his last three games, Montgomery has been swinging a hot bat and continues to show that his hot month of July was no fluke.

We have some light winds blowing out to right field today, and a very high dew point in Detroit. We saw these teams combine for 15 runs last night and three homers. I think we see the offenses have the upper hand again today.

Matt Wallner OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+290 DraftKings)

Wallner is back for the Twins and should make his first start since becoming a dad last weekend. If you haven't been paying attention, Wallner has been doing his best Barry Bonds impression, smacking five home runs over two weeks before heading to the paternity list and missing a handful of games.

Wallner has elite power against RHP as he sports a .280 ISO and has hit 13 of his 16 long balls off righties this season. I like the Twins' big hitters today against Yankees' rookie Cam Schlittler, who has the worst HR/9 of any pitcher on the slate at 2.19.

Yankee Stadium is already a good hitters' park, and we are set to have winds blowing out to left-center field as well. I love the new dad narrative here for Wallner and the fact that he was red-hot before his short absence from the lineup.

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Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+260 DraftKings)

Guess who's back in our lives? That's right, Carlos Carrasco is back for the Braves and set to start for Atlanta on the road in New York tonight!

Cookie Carrasco made a handful of starts for the Yankees earlier this year, and now Atlanta is pulling him off the scrap heap and asking him to go out and eat some innings while they finish out a lost season. It hasn't gone so well for Carrasco in Atlanta, as he's surrendered nine earned runs (and two home runs) in his first two starts spanning 11 and 2/3 innings.

Carrasco's HR/9 now stands at 1.85 over 43 innings between New York and Atlanta. With favorable hitting conditions in Citi Field, we have to attack him!

The Sensational GENERATIONAL Juan Soto
pic.twitter.com/ZYc9wCb3zr

— Kyle Gelling (@KyleGelling) August 9, 2025

Who better to go with than Mets slugger, Juan Soto? With three home runs in his last five games, Soto is in great form, and he could easily crush one deep against the washed-up Carrasco. Soto's patient approach at the plate allows him to work counts in his favor and wait for pitchers to leave the ball where he likes it. He has 28 home runs this season and remains one of the most dangerous left-handed power hitters in baseball.

Max Muncy OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 FanDuel)

Muncy came through for us on Monday with a late-inning homer, taking his season total up to 17 in just 279 at-bats (he's missed a significant amount of games this year).

Max Muncy at 34 years old, my God! pic.twitter.com/gp1xIVyu8P

— Honestly Jake (@Honestly_Jake) August 12, 2025

If you remember from Monday's article, I talked about Muncy's elite profile against sinkers, and today he gets another sinker-heavy RHP in Kyle Hendricks. Unlike a lot of pitchers in today's game, Hendricks lacks velocity and relies on the downward plane of his sinker and changeup to induce groundballs and weak contact. However, Hendricks has still allowed 19 home runs this season and sports a 1.47 HR/9 mark through 22 starts.

Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani are good targets today, too, but I am rolling with Muncy's hot bat and elite profile against Hendricks's pitch mix.

Brandon Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 DraftKings)

We have one more elite hitting environment tonight that we simply MUST target, and that's in Sacramento, where the Rays face the Athletics.

Last night, lefty Jacob Lopez shut down the Rays' bats, but they'll hand the ball to J.T. Ginn tonight, and I think Tampa is going to bounce back in a big way. This Tampa lineup is much better against righties, and Ginn has some pretty poor numbers that stand out.

Let's start with his 2.03 HR/9. That's a lot of home runs to give up for a guy with a good groundball rate of 53.8%. That tells me that while his sinker has been relatively effective, his secondary pitches have been hit hard, and a quick peek at his batted ball data confirms that.

Pitching at home certainly hasn't helped, as he's given up 8 of his 12 home runs allowed at Sutter Health Park.

Ginn has been particularly bad against lefties, allowing them to slash .299/.402/.586 with seven home runs. He throws more cutters and changeups to lefties and reduces his sinker/slider usage, and that's led to some really terrible splits.

Brandon Lowe is just one homer away from 150 in his career

He would become the third player in Rays history to hit 150 HR or more with the franchisepic.twitter.com/VQGDcXsS46

— Rays The Roof (@RaysTheRoofTB) August 12, 2025

Okay, enough about Ginn, let's talk about Lowe, who has been a righty-masher all season. He has a .258 ISO and .556 SLG this year vs. RHP and has hit 20 of his 23 long balls off righties. With the wind set to be blowing out tonight, we should see some balls leave the yard in Sacto, and I just love this matchup for Lowe against a pitcher who is likely going to give him something he can drive.

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