Fantasy Football Early-Round Overvalued Draft Picks (QB, RB, WR, TE)

August 24, 2025

Nick's 2025 fantasy football overvalued players and potential busts in the early rounds. NFL players with inflated ADPs to avoid in fantasy football drafts.

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We love to write about MVPs, high scores, and exciting talent, but it isn't all sunshine and rainbows. If every pick were a good one, then what separates the winners from the losers? Today, we'll focus on the duller side of things, with players whose fantasy output may not meet their draft-day cost.

These are players who are being taken early in drafts that I believe will underperform their average draft position (ADP) and leave fantasy managers wanting. As always, the term overvalued does not mean the player is bad/undraftable, as slipping a round or two can change much. All ADP data presented is for Half-PPR formats from aggregate ADP as of 08/05/2025.

Early-Round Overvalued Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes (KC), QB6

Mahomes was the QB11 in 2024 with 18.3 points per game after checking in at QB12 in ‘23 (13th if you count Joe Flacco’s stretch run). After compiling a career-high 75 rush attempts in ‘23, that number regressed toward his career mean with 58, yet the historically strong touchdown rate did not (positively) regress.

For the second straight season, Mahomes turned in a subpar 4.5% TD rate, yet he still has a career 5.9% mark thanks to his stellar 2018-22 run. There’s plenty of room for Mahomes to regain that form, but you can’t watch the Chiefs around him dip in ADP.

Rashee Rice is coming off a major knee injury and facing a likely suspension, with six games being thrown around, given the charges. However, that suspension may not come until later in the season as his hearing date is set for September 30. Xavier Worthy showed promise, especially down the stretch and through the playoffs, but also faltered in several advanced WR metrics. Marquise Brown missed nearly all of 2024 and barely gets drafted in 12-team leagues.

And then there’s future Hall of Famer Travis Kelce, who turns 36 in early October. He only scored three TDs last year and has eight total over his last two seasons (31 games). And both ‘23 and ‘24 have seen him lose about two yards per reception from the previous year (12.2 in ‘22, then 10.6, and 8.5 last year).

But at least going into last season, his raw yards per target had only slipped from 8.8 in ‘22 to 8.1 in ‘23. That mark cratered to 6.2 last year! Typically, we side with fading anomalies, but the aging curve changes things.

So, where does that leave Mahomes? We know his name will inflate value in most fantasy leagues, and there’s little reason to elevate him above that next tier of non-elite QBs. Last year, it was C.J. Stroud getting taken as the QB5. We’ll give Joe Burrow’s recent ceiling a pass, but Mahomes’ value is sketchy.

Early-Round Overvalued Running Backs

Breece Hall (NYJ), RB13

With the brutal 2022 knee injury another year behind him, Hall couldn’t improve his lot on a Jets offense that failed to take off. Across 16 games, Hall put up a 209-876-5 rushing line with a 57-483-3 receiving line on 76 targets.

The incredible pre-injury 5.8 YPC dipped to 4.5 in ‘23, and again to 4.2 last year. His 13.1 rush attempts per game mirrored ‘23, but his receptions per game dropped by a full catch (4.5 to 3.6). That doesn’t figure to rebound with a rushing quarterback in Justin Fields, who is far more likely to scramble rather than dump it off when under duress.

And then there’s the small matter that he tallied six fumbles in 16 games after coughing up three in his first 24 contests. Braelon Allen had zero fumbles over his 111 touches as a rookie and should continue to work into the mix (as will Isaiah Davis, to a lesser degree).

At 6-foot-1, 235 pounds, Allen is a force. With strong ball security, he’s got a path to owning the short-yardage/goal-line carries. And Davis came on late as well. Between Weeks 13-18, Hall had nine red-zone opportunities (carries+targets), while Allen and Davis combined for 10. Plus, these are still the Jets until further notice.

Aside from Braelon Allen taking away red zone carries, here's another reason to be concerned with Breece Hall:

Out of the Top 15 RBs in ADP, Hall plays for the projected lowest-scoring offense.

It isn't close, either.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) August 5, 2025

James Cook (BUF), RB14

The Buffalo back illustrated one of the mightiest pendulum swings in the league last year, but the counterswing may bash drafters in the back of the head in 2025. We went from two rushing TDs in ‘23 to a league-leading 16 in ‘24, with six total TDs tripling with 30 fewer rushes, 16 fewer targets, and 300 fewer total yards. That’s not usually how growth occurs, or at least sustainable growth.

But hey, the beautiful bottom line gave Cook the confidence to “hold in” for a better contract. He reportedly wants $15 million per year, which feels unlikely after Kyren Williams signed a three-year, $33 million deal.

Ray Davis hits Year 2 after registering a higher missed tackles forced rate than Cook and gives them a bruiser type. Ty Johnson has averaged 4.9 YPC with a 25-346-4 receiving line over two years in Buffalo as a reliable third-down/passing back. And Josh Allen remains the best goal-line option of the bunch. Cook has multiple avenues to disappointment here.

Early-Round Overvalued Wide Receivers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA), WR14

This writer is all for negative gamescripts and isn’t bashful about enjoying garbage time, but paying up for Sam Darnold’s primary target is too risky here. Many may have Darnold and Geno Smith in equal esteem, but we’re not convinced.

Smith averaged 2.55 seconds to throw and 2.49 seconds to pressure according to Fantasy Points Data Suite. Compare that to Darnold behind a superior Minnesota line, with 2.86 TTT and 2.70 TTP. Smith also had a 0.4-second gap on average time to sack, and over a second on time to scramble.

Despite the added heat, they charted Darnold with more sacks considered the QB's fault (13 to 12). We know Darnold had loads of problems under pressure on the Jets, so how much did he grow in the one year with Kevin O’Connell? That’s for drafters to decide.

But JSN was still the WR10 in half-PPR scoring, so is his WR13 ADP that bad? I’m all for respect availability as the best ability, but he was only the WR22 on a per-game basis.

And if Darnold does fold, then you’re dealing with Jalen Milroe’s adjustment period behind the same awful line. Milroe posted a lousy 16:11 TD:INT at Alabama as a junior, earning many of his wins via rushing.

DK Metcalf (PIT, WR22)

Goodness, I just hate anyone with that Seattle aura on them, eh? Metcalf has incredible athleticism, but he joins an Aaron Rodgers-led offense on a team that notoriously grinds out wins.

Metcalf made waves with 29 TDs in his first three seasons, but that slipped to 19 scores over his last three campaigns. Rodgers will only have to manage the offense to victory on the back of an exceptional defense.

Rodgers had Garrett Wilson rack up 1,104 yards and seven scores on 101 catches, with Davante Adams averaging six catches and 77 yards per game once aboard. Rodgers’ familiarity with Allen Lazard also seemingly paid off, as the veteran WR put up a 37-530-6 line.

It’s no secret that trust goes a long way with Mr. Rodgers, who is leading an offense that ranked 29th in pass attempts last year, yet fourth in rush attempts. You can say brought in Metcalf, but he’s replacing George Pickens.

Kaleb Johnson is likely more efficient than Najee Harris became. But they did bring Jonnu Smith in! Surely, we can trust an Arthur Smith-orchestrated offense to leap forward with this group. (That's sarcasm.)

I worry about the overall potency and the willingness to push downfield for big plays. We need a game-winning profile here, and there are several concerns to that being how Metcalf is utilized.

How does Aaron Rodgers’ skillset fit DK Metcalf’s game?

“How quickly he releases the ball and me getting off the line of scrimmage fast is one thing that stands out first.”

Expect a lot of quick slants in the Steelers’ passing game this year. pic.twitter.com/1UKpyqtOXQ

— Mike DeFabo (@MikeDeFabo) June 11, 2025

I still like Metcalf the player, but I hate this situation and the cost. Why is Pittsburgh’s No. 1 receiver going ahead of other No. 1’s like Courtland Sutton or Calvin Ridley?

Early-Round Overvalued Tight Ends

David Njoku (CLE), TE8

The cheap answer here is to avoid being the first one in the pool, which is why we faded Sam LaPorta in this space last year. But it feels cliche to go back and do the same thing for Bowers, though I do believe the logic remains sound.

And we already covered Kelce in the Mahomes segment, so let’s keep it moving. Those who believe that Joe Flacco starts a meaningful number of games can select Njoku, but Flacco’s least likely to be starting down the stretch when fantasy titles are being decided.

The 6-foot-4 TE heads into his ninth season having taken a gargantuan step back in efficiency and overall success. Being a premier athlete can only do so much in the face of horrid quarterbacking, and if Cleveland pivots to Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel, or Shedeur Sanders, then that’s what we’ll get.

Last year’s slog saw Njoku go from 7.2 yards per target to 5.2, and 10.9 yards per touch from 7.9 in ‘24. Flacco's games should help revert those marks toward the old figures, close to his career norms, but those horrid slips could easily be what his playoff output looks like.

Also, Cleveland saw fit to draft Harold Fannin Jr. in the beginning of the third round after the Bowling Green TE exploded for 117 catches, 1,555 yards, and 10 TDs as a junior. The MAC Player of the Year even turned nine carries into 65 yards and another score!

Concerns over conference competition are warranted, but he had lines of 8-145-1 against Texas A&M and 11-137-1 against Penn State. This is more worrisome than Jordan Akins, that’s for sure. Fannin is already being touted as the route-runner, which doesn't bode well.

Asked #Browns TEs coach Christian Jones how David Njoku and Harold Fannin Jr. complement each other.

"Dave offers a lot more physicality—a bigger body...Harold...somebody who can be in the backfield...line up at No. 1, run a route there vs a corner." pic.twitter.com/1W1n3PdieI

— Camryn Justice (@camijustice) August 1, 2025

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