Florio's Fantasy Football Breakout QBs: Player Outlooks and Analysis for 2025

July 19, 2025

Michael's top quarterback fantasy football sleepers, breakout candidates, and potential league-winners for 2025. His QB risers and draft targets, including Caleb Williams.

Breakouts win fantasy football championships. I wrote an entire article last year about chasing margin gains in ADP, which is an approach that works well for fantasy baseball but not for a game like fantasy football.

That is especially true at the quarterback position. There is a clear-cut advantage with the top five QBs, but if you miss out, there is a big group of similar QBs. It is the deepest position in the game, which means you can always find a safe streaming option on the waiver wire.

That is exactly why you should shoot for the moon and chase upside! You can always draft a safe option as your QB2, if needed.

2025 Fantasy Football QB Breakouts

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes is widely regarded as the best QB in the NFL and one of the best to ever lace them up. So, how could he be a fantasy breakout? After finishing the last two years outside the top 10 in fantasy PPG, Mahomes is no longer regarded as an elite fantasy QB. After the top five, though, his upside is unmatched.

Do not forget he routinely finished top five every year prior and even broke the then record for fantasy points in a single season by a QB (Lamar Jackson has since beat it).

Everything went wrong for Mahomes and the Chiefs last season. Marquise Brown was injured in the preseason, Mahomes fell into Rashee Rice's knee early on and ended his season, and Isiah Pacheco was injured early. His offensive line did him no favors as he was sacked more times than in any prior season.

Due to that, Mahomes averaged 6.3 air yards per attempt, the lowest of any QB with 400 pass attempts. Mahomes and fewest air yards should never be said in the same sentence.

Mahomes is entering the season with his receivers healthy, at least as of now. The Chiefs have been vocal all offseason about wanting to incorporate the deep ball again. The floor may be lower than we previously thought, but the ceiling is very high, especially if he starts airing it out more.

In addition, his top wideout, Rice, will now be eligible to play in the first four games, as his hearing with the league is scheduled for September 30. This could provide even more scoring opportunities for Mahomes.

Finishing as a top-3 QB is still in the range of outcomes, but you can get him for cheaper than ever in fantasy drafts.

Justin Fields, New York Jets

Justin Fields is my favorite QB value this season. I wrote a very in-depth article on Fields and the Jets offense. We know running QBs are cheat codes in fantasy football, and Fields has already shown us he can run at a very elite level. We have seen Fields perform at a top-5 level for an extended period of time.

However, as highlighted in that article, the Jets have a new play-caller in Tanner Engstrand, who was the Lions pass game coordinator. If he carries over similar philosophies, we should see a lot more high-percentage throws.

Fields, for the first time maybe in his career, is entering a season as the clear-cut starter with no immediate threat breathing down his neck. After the top five QBs, the only one I believe matches Fields' upside is Mahomes. Fields will be in an outside zone run scheme, which he should thrive in. If the passing attack looks like I think it could, we could see a career year as a passer from Fields.

His ceiling is a top-3 fantasy QB.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Bo Nix, like most rookie QBs, started slow out of the gate. He did not throw his first touchdown pass until Week 4. It wasn’t until Week 8 that he put up 250 yards, but from that point on, he returned QB1 value. From Week 8 on, Nix averaged 252.9 passing yards per game and threw for 24 touchdowns. During that span, he was on a 17-game pace of 4,299 passing yards and 41 touchdowns.

Friendly reminder that Bo Nix threw a further pass than any other QB last season. pic.twitter.com/acLgUQ4O48

— Sean Baldwin (@SeanBaldwinX) July 14, 2025

Nix also showed he could use his legs, running for 430 yards and four touchdowns. I do question if we have seen the ceiling with Nix, but even if so, it will be a productive fantasy one. If he can keep up his second-half pace with those rushing numbers, he could finish as a top-5 fantasy QB.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams was the biggest winner this offseason. Williams had a rookie year filled with poor offensive line play and questionable play-calling. Williams led the NFL in sacks taken and unblocked pressure. The Bears completely rebuilt the interior of their offensive line this offseason. They also hired Ben Johnson, one of the best play-callers in recent years.

Williams, who was a generational prospect, could reap plenty of benefits just like Jared Goff did. He also has plenty of weapons around him. The Bears added Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III in the 2025 NFL Draft to go along with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, D'Andre Swift, and Cole Kmet.

He is also a sneaky runner, rushing for just under 500 yards last season. Williams brings even more upside than he did a year ago, yet he is receiving less hype. You can take advantage of that in drafts.

Drake Maye, New England Patriots 

I am the self-proclaimed leader of the Drake Maye hype train. Maye did not put up eye-popping stats last season, but if you watched him play in his rookie season, you saw the flashes of greatness. He has that playmaker gene that you cannot teach. I wrote an article breaking it all down back in March.

Maye has all the physical gifts to put up numbers. The Patriots upgraded their weapons, adding Stefon Diggs, Kyle Williams, and TreVeyon Henderson. Maye is also a better athlete than he gets credit for, running for 421 yards and two touchdowns last year. That was despite head coach Jerod Mayo saying they were not having Maye run as much to prioritize his health due to the type of season they were having.

Drake Maye running the football pic.twitter.com/vfbT6VD7lZ

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 16, 2025

My only concern with Maye is how often new head coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will opt to throw. Still, you can get a ton of upside all for a QB2 price in drafts.

Deeper Breakout Options

J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings

J.J. McCarthy could break out due to playing in Kevin O’Connell’s offense with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, along with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason out of the backfield. KOC’s offenses have finished top six in passing yards and touchdowns. He will have arguably the best weapons around him. Plus, McCarthy was a good prospect with a lot of college success.

Here was what I wrote in last year's scouting report:

"McCarthy wasn’t asked to throw a ton in college, but that is not his fault. When he did, he showed a strong arm that can put a lot of velocity on his throws and fit them into tight windows. He showed good accuracy and good timing, especially on his fastball. He throws a pretty deep ball and is accurate downfield. He is a good-timing thrower and repeatedly hit the WR nicely when he had to release the ball before the break."

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young averaged 18 fantasy PPG after he became the Panthers starting QB again last season. From Week 11 on, he averaged over 20 fantasy PPG. He ran for 178 yards and five touchdowns in that span. If Young can continue to use his legs like he did in the second half, he could return QB1 value at a low-end QB2 price. Plus, he has better weapons than he has ever had, with the addition of rookie Tetairoa McMillan.

BRYCE YOUNG HAS 5 TDs.

PANTHERS LEAD FALCONS.

📺: #CARvsATL on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/JUaVUCnPE4

— NFL (@NFL) January 5, 2025

Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons

Michael Penix Jr. had mixed results in a small sample size last season. The reason he brings upside, though, is because he is a downfield thrower. Of QBs with at least 100 pass attempts, his 10.5 air yards per attempt ranked second. That is exactly what we saw him do in college. Penix is a QB2, and typically a low-end one at that, but he does bring upside due to his strong arm.

Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans

Cam Ward is the least talked-about No. 1 pick, maybe ever. Ward has a cannon for an arm and is not afraid to air the ball out deep. He is also a plus athlete; the only question will be how much he will want to run. Ward has the tools, and he gets drafted as a low-end QB2, sometimes even as a QB3 or undrafted. You can read what I wrote about him heading into the NFL Draft here.

Anthony Richardson Sr., Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson brings upside, whether you want to admit it or not! I know many of you are over him. But he did lead the NFL in air yards per attempt last season, and we have already seen some wild downfield throws.

We also already know he can be an elite runner at the NFL level. The floor is very low, but if he were ever able to put it all together, the upside remains breaking fantasy football. He is a late-round pick, if that, in drafts right now. He is a free lottery ticket.

Update - Daniel Jones has been named the starting QB in Indianapolis. As a result, fantasy managers should look to target Jones late in drafts in favor of Richardson.

Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.

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