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Michael F. Florio's fantasy football outlooks for Justin Fields and the New York Jets, including Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and Mason Taylor. Should you draft Jets in 2025?
The two most important aspects of an offense are the play caller and the quarterback. When breaking down an offense, you should always start from the top down. But what about when a team has a new playcaller? Or a new QB?
The New York Jets will be dealing with both. They have a first-time playcaller and a new QB in Justin Fields. That makes it a little tougher to figure out what the offense will look like. However, past trends for both can help us.
As the self-proclaimed “Justin Fields” person in the fantasy space, let me break down what this offense could look like and, more importantly, why you should target Fields in fantasy football drafts.
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What Jets Offense Could Look Like With Justin Fields and Tanner Engstrand
The one thing for certain with Fields is that he will run. Fields is one of three QBs in NFL history to have a 1,000-yard rushing season (Lamar Jackson, Michael Vick). He may do so again this season.
Since 2022, Fields leads all QBs in rushing touchdowns on outside zone runs. He is second behind only Jackson in rushing yards on those carries in that span. Last season, the Jets ranked fifth in outside zone runs, indicating that their offensive line is accustomed to this type of scheme. That bodes well, since the new OC Tanner Engstrand comes from Detroit, who were sixth in outside zone runs.
Not only is this a strength of Fields, but it is one that both his new team and new playcaller have utilized extensively in the past. It is safe to imagine that we see outside runs at a very high rate in the Jets' offense.
Fields was not asked to throw a ton in either Chicago or Pittsburgh. Is that a Fields thing, or was it more on the playcallers? It is a question we will quickly get an answer to this year. Luke Getsy did throw more in his year in Vegas, but that feels more out of necessity. The Steelers went from 27 pass attempts per game with Fields to 30 per game with Russell Wilson.
Engstrand was the pass game coordinator in Detroit under Ben Johnson. Those offenses ranked 16th and ninth in pass attempts. The Lions were second each season in passing yards and fourth in passing touchdowns. While I do not think the Jets will be one of the better passing teams in the league, Fields getting to throw more than in the past is very much on the table.
Why Jets are hopeful Justin Fields can be the next young vet QB turnaround success story à la Baker Mayfield & Sam Darnold:
For @nflnetwork The Insiders: pic.twitter.com/C5y8BgQDbJ
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) June 26, 2025
Not only that, but the style of passes could look very different. In Chicago, they asked Fields to air it out often. In his three seasons, 14 percent of his pass attempts traveled at least 20 air yards. Those are naturally the toughest passes to complete in the NFL. The Lions, with Engstrand as the pass game coordinator, threw deep just six percent of the time each of the past two seasons. Detroit called passes behind the line of scrimmage around 20 percent of the time in each season. They called short passes on 46 and 49 percent of the time in those two seasons.
Last year in Pittsburgh, Fields was asked to throw short on a career-high 55 percent of his passes. It led to Fields posting career highs in passer rating, completion percentage, success rate, and pass EPA. You could argue it is a small sample size, but the change in approach likely means more.
Plus, Fields threw a career-low 13 percent of passes behind the line of scrimmage after being at 21-plus percent each of his first two years. More layup passes should only lead to better passing numbers for Fields.
Why You Should Target Fields in Fantasy Football
Running QBs are cheat codes in fantasy. Fields’ rushing ability gives him the upside to finish as a top-5 fantasy QB in any given week and on the season. We have already seen him do so for a large stretch in the past. He finished as the QB5 overall and QB6 in fantasy PPG in 2022. That was Fields' best rushing season (and worst passing of the last three), but we saw last year that he still has that capability in him. He averaged 39 rushing yards per game and topped 55 rushing yards in half his starts.
He was on a 17-game pace for 655 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. That would have ranked third amongst QBs in yards and tied Jalen Hurts for first in TDs. Given that he is in a more friendly outside zone run scheme, he could even top those numbers.
The rushing production gives Fields a safe floor, but the passing numbers really could unlock the upside. Fields has improved his passing metrics in the last two seasons. If he is asked to throw more high-percentage passes - screens behind the line of scrimmage and quick, short passes - he could reach new heights as a passer. That is exactly what has happened to Jared Goff over the last two years with the Lions.
Plus, it is not like he has to take these huge strides to reach this level of fantasy success. Last year, as a starter, Fields was on a 17-game pace for 3,134 passing yards, 14 TDs, three interceptions to go with 655 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. That would equate to about 353 fantasy points. Last season, the only QBs to top that number were Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, and Jayden Daniels.
Even if you are skeptical he can run for 14 touchdowns (I am!), he has run for eight in a season prior. Plus, an uptick in passing or rushing yards would make up for that.
My early 2025 fantasy football QB rankings
Elite top 5, rank how you like
1. Josh Allen
2. Lamar Jackson
3. Jayden Daniels
4. Joe Burrow
5. Jalen HurtsThen
6. Patrick Mahomes
7. JUSTIN FIELDS— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) March 18, 2025
I have Fields ranked as my QB7 in my rankings. That is partly because I think he has the upside to be in the top five, and because there is such a large group of similar QBs after the top five. Some have upside and do not have as safe a floor, some are higher-floor plays. But there is a large group of QBs you can get and feel comfortable starting. So why not shoot for the most upside? No QB in that range brings more upside than Fields. Plus, you can pair him with a safe floor vet of your choosing to cover your bases.
What it Means for the Jets' Top Pass Catchers
You will hear a lot that this is a bad thing for Breece Hall. I am not sure I align with that thinking. Now I fully subscribe to the thinking that RB targets, at least the dumpoffs and not designed throws, are more a QB stat than an RB one. Mobile QBs do not tend to dump off to their RBs often.
However, Fields shows us this is not always the case. In his last two seasons, Fields has thrown 17 and 18 percent of his passes to the backfield. For comparison's sake, Aaron Rodgers was at 18 percent last season. That led to Hall finishing with the third-most targets of all RBs (76).
Highest to Lowest Checkdown Rates (2024)
1. Justin Fields (14.9%) 😈
2. Derek Carr (11.8%)
3. Bo Nix (11.6%)
4. Russ Wilson (11.3%)
5. Spencer Rattler (11.0%)
6. Kyler Murray (10.7%)
...
40. Daniel Jones (5.3%)
41. Jameis Winston (5.1%)
42. Anthony Richardson (2.3%) pic.twitter.com/cwLiFYmCDD— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) June 23, 2025
This shows that despite the reputation, Fields is willing to throw plenty to his back. A more significant reason why this may be blown out of proportion is who is calling the plays. Last year, the Lions threw to the backfield on 19 percent of their pass plays, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. It was 15 percent the year prior.
The narrative may point to a decrease in targets, but Fields’ tendency to throw to backs at a higher rate than you’d expect, plus the playcaller coming from an offense that heavily features the backs in the passing game, outweighs that. Additionally, ask any running back, and they will say that a running quarterback helps open up lanes for them. More room to run for the explosive Hall could be a scary thing.
Breece Hall x Justin Fields about to be 🔥🔥🔥
Watch the full pod with Breece Hall here: https://t.co/M2RBuif8HP pic.twitter.com/RTOSs4OmFk
— Get Got Pod (@GetGotPod) June 26, 2025
On top of all that, Hall is cheaper than ever in fantasy football. He is being drafted as an RB2, going in the late third rounds of drafts on average. In the past, he was typically a first-round pick. Due to all of this, it seems like there is a buying opportunity for Hall in fantasy football this drafts this season.
Once the Jets signed Fields, there were online takes that it was a bad thing for Garrett Wilson. I was skeptical of that, as just two years ago, DJ Moore had his best season of his career so far with Fields. In fact, Moore put up more yards and touchdowns that season than Wilson ever has.
Last season, Wilson lined up out wide 76 percent of the time, compared to 23 percent from the slot. We could see an uptick in slot routes with Davante Adams now gone. Over the last three years, Fields threw 37% of passes out wide and 28 percent to the slot. Engstrand and the Lions threw out wide 39 percent of passes, with 26 percent going to the slot. For context, the league average last year was 39 percent of passes out wide and 30 percent to the slot.
One thing that did worry me was that last year, the two routes on which Wilson did most of his damage were go and slants. Over the last three years, Fields has thrown go’s on 10 percent and slants on just three percent of his attempts. Fields has thrown to the flat more than anything (16 percent), but Wilson had just four targets on those routes last year. Hitch and out routes could be where this duo shines early on. Wilson is good enough that he can win on any route, but it adds a little concern.
Wilson is no longer going in the first round, but you still need to pay a high-end WR2 price to get him in the late second or early third round. That is fair value, but I tend to target others in that range, such as Tee Higgins and Terry McLaurin.
Fields has thrown 13 percent of his passes over the last three years to tight ends. That is the same number as the Lions did the last two years. The league average last season was 10 percent. Given that the Jets are thin with weapons behind Wilson, rookie tight end Mason Taylor has a shot to be the number two target. He is a nice late-round target in best ball and could break out into a nice waiver wire piece this season.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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