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Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/3/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Riley Greene
Before I get into any analysis, I have to give my colleague Frank Ammirante mad props for nailing three of his five HR calls yesterday! Hitting on just one bet usually allows us to break even, but hitting three of five bets would have been a very profitable night! I'll do my best to live up to the high standards today and see if we can't keep the hot streak going!
The strategy behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price regarding betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, July 3, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/3/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, July 3:
- Riley Greene - Detroit Tigers
- Jo Adell - Los Angeles Angels
- Rafael Devers - San Francisco Giants
- Will Smith - Los Angeles Dodgers
- Lane Thomas - Cleveland Guardians
Riley Greene OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+310 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Greene and the Tigers' offense continue to torture right-handed pitchers. Detroit now has the second-best wRC+ against RHP over the last month, and Greene has been a big part of that barrage. He hit two home runs in the first game of yesterday's doubleheader, giving him four home runs in his last three games.
Riley Greene goes deep twice to continue his hot streak in the @Tigers win! pic.twitter.com/C7NWFemLVp
— MLB (@MLB) July 2, 2025
Jake Irvin is always a target for me. He can troll you with a good start here and there, but his underlying numbers are still quite poor. He's sporting a 13.5% barrel rate and 5.40 xERA. His HR/9 sits at 1.73 as he's allowed 19 home runs already this season (11 to lefties).
Lefties are slugging .495 against him, too. I'm rolling with the hot hand here with Greene in a great spot against a pitcher who struggles to keep the ball in the yard.
Jo Adell OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+480 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Adell will face Bryce Elder from Atlanta, who has the worst HR/9 mark of any pitcher toeing the rubber today at 1.85. Elder relies on his sinker/slider combo to get 51% groundballs, but he's just not missing any bats either with a 7.6% SwStr% and 93.9% Z-Contact%.
Elder has shown some slight reverse splits, too, as righties have hit nine home runs off him and are slugging .549 this season.
Jo Adell has a 1.032 OPS and 11 HR in his last 27 games! @CY24_7 details the recent surge from the @Angels slugger and some minor adjustments that have yielded big results of late. pic.twitter.com/cYJuf9hAYh
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 2, 2025
Adell has hit 14 of his 18 home runs off righties this season, and his batted ball metrics show that he's been destroying sliders to the tune of a .972 SLG. He handles the sinker well, too, with an xBA of .305 and xSLG of .506.
We have some warm and humid conditions in Atlanta with a light breeze blowing out, too. I love these odds, too, as we don't often get a number this high for a home run hitter as prolific as Adell has been this season.
Rafael Devers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 FanDuel Sportsbook)
If you read my content very often, you probably already know that I like to pick on Brandon Pfaadt with left-handed power bats. Pfaadt has been pretty bad against RHH this year, too, but he still has slightly worse splits to lefties, allowing them to hit nine home runs and slug .500.
It's been a week since Devers' last home run, and he has only two bombs since being traded to the Giants. However, I can't ignore his track record over the past several seasons as one of the best left-handed power hitters in baseball.
If Devers were hotter at the plate or facing a lesser-known pitcher, I think these odds would be down around the +250 range. Let's take advantage of the nice price here and hope that Devers can drive one deep tonight.
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Will Smith OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Everything lines up quite nicely for Will Smith to go yard today; he's checking all the boxes.
If you like riding hot hitters, then Smith fits the bill as he has homered in two of his last three games and three times over the last week.
Will Smith proving why he's an NL starter at the All-Star Game 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/d9mc1L0RwP
— MLB (@MLB) July 3, 2025
If you like breaking down pitcher splits, then Aaron Civale's reverse splits favor Smith as well. Civale is allowing righties to slash .310/.359/.524 this season between his stops in Milwaukee and Chicago. He's given up seven home runs, four of those to right-handed hitters. He's much more effective against lefties with his variety of breaking pitches, sporting a respectable 22% K%, but that number drops to just 13% against RHP.
Finally, for the BvP crowd, does it get any better than this? Smith is 2-2 off Civale with two home runs! Perhaps the math suggests he's due to NOT hit a home run at some point, but there has to be something that Smith likes about Civale's pitch mix or delivery or something for him to be that dialed in against him, right?
Lane Thomas OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 DraftKings Sportsbook)
We finish up with our longshot play of the day. I considered several Cubs lefties against Joey Cantillo in this game, but ultimately, I like this angle that I found on Thomas a bit more.
The Cubs send rookie righty Cade Horton to the mound today. While he dominated in the minors as a prospect, he hasn't seen that success transfer over to the big league level yet. Horton has some alarming batted ball numbers, including a 93% Z-Contact% and a 12% barrel rate. Simply stated, hitters are squaring him up when he comes into the zone quite often.
Horton has given up more power to righties than lefties, with five of the six home runs he has allowed coming to RHH.
Enter Lane Thomas, one of the few righties that Thomas will see today in this Cleveland lineup. Thomas missed a big chunk of time this season due to injury and has been slow to get going since coming back. However, Thomas hit his fourth home run of the season yesterday and now has four on the season. Three of those have come in his last eight games.
Thomas has been known as a lefty-killer during his career and more for his speed than his power, but he's hitting RHP better so far this season. And Thomas does have power in his bat as he's only two seasons removed from a 28-home run campaign with Washington.
Good luck if you are tailing these bets today, and remember to always bet responsibly! Thanks for reading and for making RotoBaller your one-stop shop for all things baseball!
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