
Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the 2025 Rocket Mortgage. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.
Welcome, everyone, to my DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks and advice for the 2025 Rocket Mortgage. I'll be providing DFS picks and analysis to help you set those winning DraftKings lineups.
New starting this year -- if you want to see a deeper dive into my DraftKings analysis and thoughts for the week, you can click that link and find my beefed-up version, including more picks, data, analysis, and PGA DFS models.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 50% off using code SUMMER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings - The Rocket Mortgage
Below are some of my favorite picks for DraftKings. We also have tons of other great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools, and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Spencer's Model (And More)
We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:
PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)
- A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows users to input data to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide on everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market.
- The Rocket Mortgage
Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)
- Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
- All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (296-228-30) 56.48%
- In-Tournament H2Hs (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Total H2Hs Since 2017: (596-428-85) 58.20%
- Outright Winners Since 2017: 51
- Units: +340.903 Units
- All Totals Are Entering 2025
- Click here to see an example
In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)
- Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.
In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4
- Lifetime Record:
- (300-200-55) 60.00%
- Click here to see an example
First-Round Leader/ 3-Ball Articles
- Nine first-round leader wins in 2022.
- Click here to see an example
One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)
- 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look at a handful of options to consider.
- Click here to see an example
Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool) + Ownership Trends
- We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.
- Join the community! You will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with the team.
- $224.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
- You can also try things out for $14.99 per week or get the complete PGA Platinum package from everyone on the team for $299.99. I believe that deal is one of the best offers in the space since it includes top-notch work from the likes of Joe Nicely, Byron Lindeque, others, and myself!
You can also sign up for the rest of the year for a discounted purchase that runs through December 31st. Now is the perfect time to try out all the great features at RotoBaller!
Let's Look at the Stats
Stat | Detroit Golf | PGA Average |
Driving Distance | 295 | 283 |
Driving Accuracy | 65% | 61% |
GIR Percentage | 72% | 65% |
Scrambling Percentage | 61% | 57% |
Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.53 | 0.54 |
Field
Field Size: 156
Cut: Top 65 & Cuts
Top 20 Entrants: 5
Last Five Winners of The Rocket Mortgage
2024 | Cam Davis | -18 |
2023 | Rickie Fowler | -24 |
2022 | Tony Finau | -26 |
2021 | Cam Davis | -18 |
2020 | Bryson DeChambeau | -23 |
Expected Cut-Line at Rocket Mortgage
2024 | -3 |
2023 | -3 |
2022 | -2 |
2021 | -2 |
2020 | -4 |
Detroit Golf Club
7,370 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bent/Poa
Course breakdown will land in my Vegas Report this week
First Look Into Outright Bets
Player | Price |
Stephan Jaeger | 75 |
Henrik Norlander | 175 |
Tom Kim | 80 |
Harry Hall | 45 |
Max Greyserman | 45 |
Ryo Hisatsune | 90 |
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA and Betting subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, Spencer's data models, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get exclusive access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry!
Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Favorite Plays
Davis Thompson ($8,100)
Last week, I made Keegan Bradley the featured image of my DFS article but didn't bet him to win the event. We will see if that outcome happens again during this iteration since Davis Thompson is front and center on this piece but not inside my six-man outright card, but let's talk about why that may be and the profile that excels for DFS.
When you examine Thompson's fit for Detroit Golf Club more closely, you will find a lot to like. The American graded as the most mispriced player on the slate at $8,000+, and he also carried an extremely high-end return when faced with similar courses that reward birdie-making acumen.
Yes, Thompson carries that same negative trajectory in my model when I compare his price and the upside return we saw from Bradley. However, that answer is more of an outlook at the current totals in the space and doesn't incorporate the overall rank that my model found in both options. We saw the same return we get from Thompson here in Detroit when Bradley ranked in the top 10 on my sheet at the Travelers. All of those answers make Thompson a massive value at his DFS price.
Stephan Jaeger ($7,700), Harry Hall ($9,500)
If Davis Thompson is last week's Keegan Bradley in terms of how he grades, Stephan Jaeger and Harry Hall should be considered a hybrid of Tommy Fleetwood. That does not mean Hall is going to follow his English counterpart with a 72nd-hole implosion (or even be in contention down the stretch), but the upside totals inside my sheet did find the duo to check a lot of the boxes I try to locate when looking for a GPP standout on the slate.
Hall talked about his grit last week when he mentioned that he spent Saturday in an ambulance because of a sickness that overtook him. We saw countless players remove themselves from the field over the four rounds at the Travelers because of that ailment, but Hall continued this recent surge late in the year by staying in the field and fighting through the issues, posting his fifth straight top-25 finish in a row.
While Jaeger has not quite shown the level of recent form that embodies what we have gotten out of Hall, the German does provide a statistical profile that explains why he has posted two top-10 finishes when playing this course over the last three years. Yes, some of the off-the-tee data will need help, but Jaeger might be one of those golfers who is going to benefit from his distance and high-end approach marks at a tournament that often is won by a little extra length off the tee and spike nature with your putter or irons. Jaeger can do all three of those things at a high level.
Ryo Hisatsune ($7,200)
My favorite value on the board this week is Ryo Hisatsune. There is a strong case to be made that he is a top-20 golfer in this field, but DFS pricing is going to push him outside the top 40 names and potentially create value in GPP contests.
I typically love to target those high-upside/ low-price routes in large-field tournaments, something we see from Hisatsune ranking 10th in Weighted Strokes Gained Total and 13th over his last 50 rounds on Donald Ross designs.
Ownership will likely be there since I doubt I am the only one noticing Hisatsune's profile, but I doubt we enter a range where he all of a sudden becomes unplayable since I am much higher than the market is on him still.
Win More With RotoBallerWin more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.
Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt