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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 6/18/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
Well, things didn't go exactly as planned yesterday as we dropped four of the five NRFI bets. The night started out cleanly with the Twins-Reds game, but went downhill quickly. Two losses came with five outs completed as pitchers allowed a two-out RBI hit to the opposing team in the bottom of the first inning. Another one came with two outs in the top of the first as Juan Soto hit a solo shot off Spencer Schwellenbach.
Variance can rear its ugly head at any time, and I have to chalk a few of those losses up as bad beats and move on. The good news is that we have another loaded slate today and a chance to right the ship and get back on a winning streak.
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI bets today (I've got five of them today) for MLB games on Wednesday, June 18, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to occur more frequently, which is why you usually see shorter odds than on YRFI. It's also just more enjoyable -- whenever I take a YRFI, it feels like an inevitable loss. There's nothing more tilting than watching your team strand baserunners when you need them to score in the first inning. If you're taking the YRFI, then I suggest not even watching.
The best part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning.
Best First Inning Bets Today (June 18, 2025)
- Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners: 4:10 pm
- Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers: 6:40 pm
- Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees: 7:05 pm
- Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers: 8:05 pm
- Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs: 8:05 pm
Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners NRFI (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- BOS: Garrett Crochet
- SEA: Luis Castillo
Just one early game on our card today, and it comes in Seattle, where we have Boston's ace Crochet taking on an elite NRFI pitcher in Luis Castillo.
Crochet has an 11-4 NRFI record this season and is arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has been victimized by three first-inning home runs this season, but also has the type of stuff to strike out the side, and the Mariners are whiffing at a 25.6% rate over the last month. The Mariners have been pretty tough early on, but I have to give the pitcher the edge here; there aren't any lineups that Crochet can't handle when he's on his game.
Castillo has been phenomenal in the first, sporting a 13-1 record and a six-game NRFI streak. Boston has been pretty darn good lately with a 50% YRFI hit rate, but the loss of Rafael Devers in the lineup makes me fear them a bit less than I did just a few days ago. We are paying some major juice on this one today, but when the pitchers have a combined 24-5 NRFI record, you can understand why.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers NRFI (-150 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- PIT: Andrew Heaney
- DET: Tarik Skubal
This is a loaded pitching slate today, and a lot of elite lefties are taking the bump. No one has been better than Tarik Skubal this season, and the defending Cy Young champion gets to pick on a bad Pirates offense. My punchless Pirates are dead last in wRC+ over the last month and strike out at a 28% rate against LHP.
Ladies and gentlemen, TARIK SKUBAL 😤
His last 4 starts:
30.2 IP
1 ER
0.29 ERA
32/2 K/BB pic.twitter.com/RcJQbPhRFc— MLB (@MLB) June 13, 2025
The key here will be Pirates' starter Andrew Heaney, who will face some good Detroit hitters early. The good news is that Heaney has a 10-4 NRFI record and is coming off two terrific outings against the Cubs and Phillies.
There is a lot of juice on this bet, too, but with Skubal on the hill, I get it. If you don't like making straight bets at -150, then you can pair these first two bets together in a parlay.
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees NRFI (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- LAA: Jack Kochanowicz
- NYY: Ryan Yarbrough
This is easily the riskiest bet on the card, but let me make a case for taking a shot on it at plus money.
Neither pitcher is someone I totally trust, but Kochanowicz has been much improved this season and sports a 10-4 NRFI record. Meanwhile, Yarbrough has been incredible for the Yankees, going 6-1 on NRFIs through his first seven starts.
The major risk here is that neither guy has elite strikeout stuff, and both allow a lot of contact. However, the current offensive trends could help them. The Yankees are slumping badly and were shut out last night by Kyle Hendricks. Despite being a good early offense on the season, they are just 2-8 on YRFIs in their last 10 games.
The Angels are 2-8 on YRFIs, too, and struggle against LHP. This is a matchup that Yarbrough can win, even without having overpowering stuff.
Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- KCR: Kris Bubic
- TEX: Patrick Corbin
We know that Kris Bubic is having a breakout season, but is anyone paying attention to the renaissance that Patrick Corbin is having? Both lefties have good matchups today against mediocre offenses and have been very good early in games.
Bubic has allowed just one YRFI all season, while Corbin has an impressive 10-2 NRFI record of his own.
The Rangers are 3-7 on offensive YRFIs over their last ten games, while the Royals are 2-8.
So we have one excellent pitcher (Bubic) in a great spot (Texas ranks 27th vs. LHP in wRC+) and a pretty good veteran pitcher (Corbin) in an above-average spot (KC ranks 23rd vs. LHP).
This bet feels fairly priced based on how well both pitchers have fared early and the current offensive trends for both teams.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- MIL: Jacob Misiorowski
- CHC: Jameson Taillon
The dynamic Milwaukee rookie is ready to make his second start as his minor ankle injury hasn't forced him to miss any time. I am sure you all saw this kid humming in fastballs at 100 mph in his debut with some plus breaking stuff, right? I know the Cubs are tough, but Misiorowski looks phenomenal, and I have to give him the advantage over these opposing offenses the first time they see him.
Jameson Taillon, Filthy 81mph Curveball. 😷 pic.twitter.com/Bep1JVPuqK
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 13, 2025
For the Cubs, Jameson Taillon has been rock solid and is having one of his best seasons in years. Taillon has allowed two runs or fewer in five straight starts. Meanwhile, the Brewers are 0-10 on YRFIs in their last ten games and continue to slump at the plate.
I give both pitchers the advantage here and again, we get some nice -130 odds here compared to the -150 we have to lay on those first two bets.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Best NRFI hit rate: Brewers (100%)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Red Sox, Giants (50%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Nine teams tied with 2 HR
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Mariners (.357)
- Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Mariners (.451)
After a tough outing yesterday where variance got the best of us, it’s time to regroup and refocus. We’re back with a fresh slate and five strong NRFI bets today, backed by solid pitching matchups and favorable offensive trends.
From elite arms like Skubal and Castillo to promising value spots like Brewers-Cubs, there’s no shortage of sharp plays for your NRFI betting card. Stay disciplined, monitor lineups and weather, and trust the process.
The volatility in this market is real, but the edge remains — let’s bounce back and cash in on some well-researched NRFI bets today!
Thanks for reading and good luck if you're tailing!
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