Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Analysis: Buyer Beware for Week 11? (2025)

Michael's fantasy baseball waiver wire analysis for Week 11 (2025), and whether to buy into MLB hitters and pitchers. Should you avoid these popular names?

Welcome back to another edition of our Buyer Beware series, in which we apply a skeptical eye to a few popular waiver wire names each week.

This iteration is highlighted by Royals slugging first baseman Jac Caglianone, who many believe could receive the biggest FAAB bids of the year.

I have complained about the dearth of good modern sports nicknames before, but Caglianone’s presents a twist. It turns out that “Jac” is actually an acronym for his full name: Jeffrey Alan Caglianone. Whatever we call him, let’s take a deeper dive into his profile, along with those of a Mariners second base prospect and a young Phillies pitcher.

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Jac Caglianone, 1B, Kansas City Royals

65% rostered

The Royals called up “Cags” early this week to provide some life to a sputtering offense. He is one of the best power-hitting prospects we’ve seen in recent years. Hence, he is likely to fetch some pretty extreme FAAB bids, especially in the NFBC, where he was not available until this week (unless he was drafted and dropped).

The young slugger ripped through the Minors this season, slashing .322/.389/.593 with 15 homers and 56 RBI in 229 plate appearances. In Triple-A alone, he hit six homers with a .319 average, 1.094 OPS, and 16.7% strikeout rate over just 13 games.

So far with the Royals, Caglianone hasn’t really gotten going yet but he hasn’t looked totally lost either. He’s already hit a ball 113.9 miles per hour, has elite bat speed (77.2), and has an early 50% hard hit rate.

He has been playing right field and DH so he should add outfield eligibility in short order.

Those are positives and it isn’t that we think Cags is going to just fail in the big leagues. He should be productive and have a decent playing time runway. But we have also seen numerous good prospects struggle in their first taste of the majors, including higher-regarded hitters from Gunnar Henderson to Wyatt Langford.

The issue is the likely FAAB price weighed against Cags’ production projections. For example, here is how Rotoballer and ATC project him for 2025:

Those are fine numbers, and of course, Cags could exceed them. But he’s just as likely to take time to adjust to the majors, as his early 80% ground ball rate cautions he might.

Caglianone could help the Royals eventually, but he may be a drag on fantasy teams in the short term. Even if you are desperate for power, we would proceed cautiously before making huge bids.

Cole Young, 2B/SS, Seattle Mariners
5% rostered

Young was called up by Seattle last weekend to fill a void at second base. He has started every game since.

The twenty-first pick in the 2022 draft, Young is a fine all-around talent but lacks a major carrying tool for fantasy.

His best skill is making contact. Over the past two seasons, he hit .271 and .277 at Double-A and Triple-A, respectively. That’s solid but not impactful.

Young has flashed decent speed with 45 stolen bases over the 2023 and 2024 seasons. But he was also caught 21 times! Even the steals slowed down this year, as he nabbed just four bags in six attempts over 54 Triple-A games. He hasn’t attempted a steal yet with Seattle.

Young does not possess great or even good power. FanGraphs only rates his current game power as a 35 on the 20-80 scale, which is below average. Last season he hit nine homers over 124 games in Double-A. The projections call for less than double-digit dingers over 600 major-league plate appearances.

Young could be a solid flier for those in desperate straits at second base (as many are). With his slow start at the dish in the majors (.067 average entering Friday), he might be an inexpensive FAAB add. That’s as it should be given the limited upside.

Mick Abel, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
44% rostered

Abel was called up for a spot start in mid-May and shoved against the Pirates with nine strikeouts and no runs alllwed over six innings. In his second start, he held the Blue Jays to one run, although with just two strikeouts. It’s easy to see why fantasy managers are feeling optimistic about him.

This is Abel’s player card from that first start, courtesy of Thomas Nestico (@TJStats on X):

Leaps in command and velocity are the big drivers of Abel’s improvements this year. He’s sitting close to 97, over a full tick higher than last season and over two miles per hour above 2023. Of course, he is also backed by a good team.

There are risks with Abel, however. He has struggled with command in recent seasons. Over his 2023 and 2024 Minors seasons, he ran 13.5% and 15.1% walk rates. Those contributed to earned run averages of 4.13 and 6.46, respectively.

Abel has clearly made improvements, but he still posted a high 11% walk rate this year in Triple-A.

Abel also allowed healthy home run rates in prior seasons, but this year it was just .63 HR/9 in Triple-A. He hasn’t allowed a dinger yet in the majors. It’s likely we see some regression there, which combined with the potential walks, could lead to blow-up outings.

Abel’s projections do not paint a rosy picture either. For example, ATC calls for a 4.52 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 8.24 K/9. We wouldn’t add or keep a pitcher putting up those numbers on our teams.

There are also questions about Abel’s runway in the rotation. Aaron Nola is rehabbing from an ankle injury. He is a couple of weeks away from returning, but when he does, the Phillies rotation will be at full strength. That would likely push Abel back to Triple-A.

Abel has exciting upside for fantasy, but before spending huge FAAB dollars on him, we should be cognizant of the downside as well.

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