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Zach looks at 3 starting pitcher fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers off to hot starts in 2025. Are Shane Smith, Logan Henderson, Mick Abel for real?
Since we're almost two full months into the season, almost every fantasy baseball team is looking to add some depth to their starting rotation. As the season goes on, though, there are also many pitchers stepping up and emerging as potential fantasy options. Some of those players don't have staying power, while others emerge as key contributors.
In this post, we'll do a deep dive on three pitchers who have surprised many this season and could be potential fantasy fits depending on your team's needs. We'll look at Shane Smith of the Chicago White Sox, Logan Henderson of the Milwaukee Brewers, and Mick Abel of the Philadelphia Phillies.
Should fantasy managers run to the waiver wire to add these breakout pitchers? Or is their breakout a fake-out? Let's dive in!
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Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox
2025 Stats: 53 1/3 IP, 2.36 ERA, 3.96 SIERA, 1.11 WHIP, 22.0% K%
29% Rostered
This past offseason, Smith was selected with the top overall pick in the Rule 5 draft by the White Sox from the Brewers' system. He went 6-3 with a 3.05 ERA, 2.91 FIP, and 10.8 K/9 in 22 games in Double-A and Triple-A last season, and the White Sox saw him as an arm that was ready for the majors.
Smith had a strong enough spring training to open the season in the rotation for his new team, which is unusual for a Rule 5 selection. He has been solid in his 10 starts for the White Sox, going just 1-3 due to spotty run support, but posted a solid 2.36 ERA and 3.36 FIP.
In all but one of his 10 starts, Smith has worked at least five innings and has not given up more than three earned runs in any outing. He has done a good job limiting damage by giving up just three home runs while striking out at least five in four straight starts.
Shane Smith, Wicked Changeups. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/A6jVoVeE1s
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 21, 2025
Smith's numbers don't leap off the page, but he has been very servicable for the White Sox, eating innings and churning out solid numbers. Like he is for Chicago, he can also be a nice depth piece for fantasy rotations. So far this season, he has shown he can help your ERA and WHIP while turning in quality innings and a decent strikeout rate.
Verdict: It's hard to count on Smith too much since his run production and bullpen support are lacking in Chicago. Despite his solid ERA, having just one win makes him hard to count on as an every-week option in standard-sized leagues.
Smith is a fringe roster option who can provide depth and under-the-radar production, even though his situation limits his ceiling.
Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers
2025 Stats: 16 IP, 1.69 ERA, 2.21 SIERA, 0.81 WHIP, 39.0% K%
58% Rostered
Henderson is the clearest "buy now" option among the three starting pitchers in this post. The 23-year-old righty has made an impressive first three starts in the majors and is a top waiver wire addition in all formats.
He started the year in Triple-A for the Nashville Sounds, where he went 5-1 in six games while racking up 40 strikeouts in 30 innings and producing a 2.40 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and just a 32.8% hard-hit rate against.
He came into the season ranked as the No. 12 prospect in the Brewers' system by MLB Pipeline, and he got his first taste of the majors in mid-April when he was summoned to make a spot start. He went six innings at home against the Athletics to earn his first major league win by allowing just one run on three hits while picking up nine strikeouts.
Henderson returned to Triple-A after that outing but re-joined the major league squad in mid-May. He allowed two runs in five innings in Cleveland, picking up seven strikeouts and his second victory, and on Tuesday, he threw five shutout innings with seven strikeouts against the Orioles to earn another win.
Logan Henderson making a strong case to stay in the rotation and has a smash spot Sunday against the pirates…
Tonight vs O’s:
5IP 2H 2BB 7K
35% Whiff rate 👀
31 CSW%— Nicho Roessler (@NichoRoessler) May 21, 2025
In his 16 innings in the majors, Henderson has allowed just three runs on nine hits while picking up an impressive 23 strikeouts. Henderson became the first pitcher in modern MLB history to start his big-league career with three straight starts of at least seven strikeouts and three straight wins. He's the 10th pitcher since 1901 to have at least seven strikeouts in his first three major league starts.
Henderson is just 23 years old and has a lot of room to still mature and grow, but he features a low-to-mid 90s fastball, changeup, cutter, and slider. In his time in the majors, his fastball has been his best bat-missing weapon, generating a 37.3% whiff rate.
The Brewers have dealt with multiple injuries in their starting rotation this season, so Henderson's role is a little murky in the long-term picture. He could end up working out of the bullpen or landing back at Triple-A when arms get healthy later in the year.
However, with how well he has been pitching, the Brewers could find it hard to keep him in the minors after so much success.
Verdict: Henderson's next start is scheduled for Sunday against the Pirates, which should be a very favorable spot for the righty. While he may not be able to keep up quite this level of success, he's shown he can be a mixed-league option, at least for that option in Pittsburgh.
I wouldn't recommend blowing the budget to add Henderson since his stuff isn't as elite as some of the other prospects expected to debut later this season, but if you can grab him from waivers at a reasonable price, he's on a great heater to jump on and ride until he cools off.
For now, Henderson should be owned in all leagues.
Mick Abel, Philadelphia Phillies
2025 Stats: 6 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.39 SIERA, 0.83 WHIP, 40.9% K%
18% Rostered
The final pitcher we will analyze is Mick Abel of the Phillies. Abel is in a fascinating situation to watch since his future is the least certain of the three options in this post. However, he could also end up being the best pickup of the three if things go his way over the next few weeks.
Abel was the Phillies' first-round pick in the 2020 MLB Draft and was ranked as the team's No. 8 prospect coming into the season. He struggled with his command early in his pro career but still climbed to Triple-A by 2023, when he pitched in the MLB Futures Game.
Last year was a tough one for Abel, who struggled more with his command and went 3-12 with a 6.46 BB/9 rate that resulted in a 6.46 ERA and 5.47 FIP in 24 games for the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs. This season, though, Abel has been able to get his walks much more under control, reducing his walk rate to 3.69 BB/9, which has helped him to a 2.53 ERA and 3.77 FIP in his eight Triple-A starts.
The Phillies called him up to make a spot start on Sunday, and Abel made the most of his opportunity to impress.
Mick Abel was lights out today in his MLB Debut 🔥
6 IP (84 P)
5 H
0 R (0 ER)
0 BB
9 K
18 Whiffs 🤢
38 CSW%FB was up to 99 and he located it well with a 79 Zone%. Stuff has never been a question for Abel with three above average or better pitches with his FB/SL/CB, but he’s… pic.twitter.com/Co6BJgIECP
— Owen Hurd (@Owen_FBB) May 18, 2025
Abel only outdueled Paul Skenes in that outing--no big deal. Throughout his time in the minors, his issue has been his control, so not issuing a single walk in his debut is almost as noteworthy as his 18 whiffs. Almost. That strikeout stuff is hard to pass up as a fantasy manager, though, and the fact that he could snag a spot in the Phillies' rotation gives him an extremely high ceiling.
Despite his impressive outing, the Phillies stuck with their plan, moved Taijuan Walker back into the rotation, and sent Abel back to Triple-A. Walker did just enough to win on Wednesday against the Rockies at Coors Field, allowing six hits and two walks but working five innings and getting the win.
However, Abel's impressive appearance could earn him another look if the Phillies need more help in the rotation. His long-term spot is further clouded by the impending arrival of top prospect Andrew Painter, who the team hopes to join the major league rotation in July.
Verdict: Abel flashed his high ceiling in his debut and excited fantasy managers about the possibilities if and when he gets another chance. Depending on your league size and roster configuration, stashing Abel could be a great option. Even if you can't stash him since his next major league start is uncertain, keep a close eye out for when the Phillies give him another shot.
His stuff has never been questioned, and his improved control this season in Triple-A indicates that his debut wasn't just a fluke. If and when he gets the opportunity, he will be a must-add, but until he does, the righty is still a great option to watch closely or stash in deep or more aggressive leagues.
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