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Cole Young is a fantasy baseball prospect sleeper, stash, waiver wire pickup. Matt's suite of fundamentals-rooted evaluation tools provide dynasty outlooks.
Seattle Mariners middle infielder prospect Cole Young is now due up in a series in which I examine the evolution of the pro offensive fundamentals of 2022 MLB Draft signees from the high school class.
Young was touted out of the Pittsburgh prep ranks as a very polished player featuring a broad mix of above-average tools, but with none of them overly loud.
How might the professional plate profiles and offensive outcomes posted to date impact future evaluations of Young in real-world and fantasy baseball circles? With Cole Young expected to be called up to the majors, now is a great time to take a look and his fantasy baseball outlook.
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Prospect Analysis: Cole Young
Evolution of Pro Plate Profile
The Mariners nabbed left-handed-batting shortstop Young as the 21st overall selection of the 2022 MLB Draft. A $3.3 million bonus was a hair above the slot value of the pick.
A subsequent 2022 pro debut encompassed 71 plate appearances that began in the Rookie Arizona Complex League but ended in the Low-A California League. An impressive 92 K Avoid with the Rookie club only soared further to 99 in Low-A. BB+HBP had flipped from nearly plus in Arizona to almost minus over the 45 Low-A plate trips.
Somehow, Young generated half to plus hits (AVG) on batted balls at both debut stops despite hitting line drives at neither. Half minus to average ISO Ratings roughly matched half minus to average OFFB and Pull OFFB.
Young opened 2023 with another 376 PA in Low-A. BB+HBP rebounded to almost equal a 93 K Avoid. Young added much (compare GB Avoid, OFFB versus 2022) loft to batted ball profile, but key LD and Pull OFFB elements skewed thinner, limiting (22) AVG and (51) ISO outputs.
That the subsequent 248 PA of 2023 in High-A generated a FaBIO line that did not overly differ from the preceding Low-A one pegged Young as being truer to who he was fundamentally at the core and not so impacted by the relative quality of competition. The High-A AVG and ISO outcomes were very on par with what the corresponding Path to Batted Ball Profile marks would forecast.
The 2022 Rookie, 2023 Low-A, and 2023 High-A lines all highlight the vulnerability of the whiff-averse left-handed batter to strikeouts against left-handed pitchers (Same-Handed Pitchers K Avoid << Oppo-Handed Pitchers K Avoid).
Young (sort of) spent all of 2024 minors in Double-A. BB+HBP finished just to the low side of plus, while K Avoid stayed north of that. The best yet (78) LD + (90) IFFB Avoid + (86) Pull GB Avoid hit trio produced only a middling 58 AVG on batted balls. The companion 31 ISO was a tick on the low side for a 62 OFFB + 28 Pull OFFB combo.
The huge 2024 Double-A sample of work represented the first stop on the minor league ladder, where K Avoid was just as high versus Same-Handers as versus Oppo-Handers.
Over the three minor league seasons, the hallmark profile fundamental of K Avoid stayed up relative to peers, though it gradually declined after he graduated each level. The LD + IFFB Avoid + Pull GB hit trio has improved about a standard deviation each season, but hits (AVG) on batted balls have varied widely year to year and never quite matched the under-the-hood fundamentals. Except for 2022 Low-A, any OFFB contact skewed later (OFFB >> Pull OFFB), which served to further limit extra bases (ISO) on batted balls beyond how a smaller 5-foot-10-inch physique already had.
A subsequent trip to the Arizona Fall League was called off early due to a wrist injury.
The advance-ticketed-for-Triple-A Young took 22 plate trips in 2025 MLB spring training games back in Arizona. He came up short on most fundamentals aside from posting high avoidances of IFFB and Pull GB.
Evolution of Pro Offensive Running
Young's first 23 offensive running play events came with the 2022 Rookie-level affiliate and pegged him as perhaps lightning-fast per a 100 Offensive Running Rating that featured plus to 100 As Batter and As Baserunner subscores. But that early excitement has since been quashed by ratings of only 10, 44, 2, and 21 over the next four affiliate stops.
The now 5-foot-11-inch, 180-pound, 21-year-old Young already runs old per the more recent marks of this offensive running evaluation model.
Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Focus
After three pro seasons, Young aligns fairly well with predraft reports that had him fundamentally above-average at most skills but minus a louder tool. Offensive running would have to be the weak present skill, especially since it was thought to be a relative strength when he was an amateur.
Why he came up so average at producing hits on batted balls in 2024 Double-A while sporting a well beyond plus LD + IFFB Avoid + Pull GB Avoid trio would be a more relevant mystery to explore. Does Young simply lack the natural strength to better convert stronger hit fundamentals into bigger averages on batted balls? Or did that Arizona Fall League wrist injury develop during the Double-A assignment and sap physicality as the remainder of that season played out?
That Young has not produced much ISO is easier to explain between his relative lack of size and the rather late-spray bias to the outfield fly-ball population within what has of late been a more aerial-neutral batted ball profile.
Poorer small-sample MLB spring game fundamentals might explain the ongoing cooler start in Triple-A. Or instead, could both in concert be a sign that the wrist may need some operative work if none has been done yet?
Young began his pro career playing far more shortstop than second base. The gap had gradually narrowed by the end of the 2024 Double-A season, in which almost a third of starts came at second. He has played in the range of solid to good at short but is more likely to stand out positively relative to MLB peers at second base, where he has spent about three-fourths of his early 2025 Triple-A starts. He should make enough injury fill-ins to spot starts at shortstop in MLB to qualify at both positions for fantasy purposes.
As dynasty fantasy owners speculate as to the future value of Young, they should especially focus on just how well he could hit for average in MLB if the core hit fundamentals remain more up than they were in 2024 Double-A. As a 2022 prep draft signee who would not be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft until after 2026, Young may not see 2025 MLB regular season (or postseason) time despite presently residing less than an hour south of Seattle in Triple-A Tacoma.
Safest MLB projection today would feature half plus walks plus hit by pitches, plus strikeout avoidance, average to maybe half plus hits per batted ball, half minus extra bases per batted ball, half minus offensive runner. Such would have the left-handed batter occupying a bottom-third of an MLB lineup spot on a full-time basis, provided that the hitting stays in average to good range. Or else, he cycles between part-time regular and utility middle infielder.
Brief Explanation of the FaBIO Model
My Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) evaluation model sorts every plate appearance into one of 12 outcome bins (BB+HBP, K, IFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Center-Third OFFB, Oppo-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, Center-Third LD, Oppo-Third LD, Pull-Third GB, Center-Third GB, Oppo-Third GB) and charges the pitcher and batter with their league's mean runs value for said particular event that season.
Dividing a batter's total number of expected runs by plate appearance (PA) yields expected runs per PA that can be percentile ranked relative to the league mean and standard deviation for that parameter amongst league batter qualifiers to arrive at their Overall Rating.
Its three subcomponents of BB+HBP Rating (based on BB+HBP per PA), Strikeout Avoid Rating (K Avoid, based on K per PA), and Batted Ball Profile Rating (expected runs per batted ball) are also reported to identify the path the batter traveled to reach their Overall Rating.
Overall Rating and Batted Ball Profile Rating of batters should be considered power- and speed-neutralized metrics since the real-world runs value of a single batter's typical OFFB or LD varies with their strength, and the expected runs value of their typical GB varies with their speed.
To better understand the Path to Batted Ball Profile, we will also examine percentile ratings for select batted ball event types (on a per-batted ball basis). To check how well expected batted ball outcomes match real-world ones, we will compute percentile ratings for hits (AVG) and isolated power (ISO, or simply extra bases) on batted balls (recognizing full well that these two parameters are neither fielding- nor ballpark-independent outcomes).
What most explains a batter's ability to generate hits (AVG) on batted balls is any LD, IFFB avoidance, Pull-Third OFFB, and Pull-Third GB avoidance. What most explains their ability to generate extra bases (ISO) on batted balls is any OFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, and IFFB avoidance.
A percentile rating of 97 amounts to plus-plus (two standard deviations above the mean), 84 is plus (one standard deviation above the mean), 69 is half plus, 50 is average, 31 is half minus, 16 is minus, and three is minus-minus.
A new addition to this suite of evaluation models is the Offensive Running Rating. This tool quantifies how each relevant inning's run expectancy was impacted by the player's action or inaction as either a batter or baserunner on very specific types of plays that are more likely to involve one or both of their speed or offensive running techniques, plus acumen.
The evaluated batter and baserunner events are summarized in the graphic.
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