RADIO
Final Four X-Factors
We all know about the stars that have led their teams to the Final Four. Johni Broome and Cooper Flagg are neck-and-neck for Player of the Year. Walter Clayton Jr.’s shooting at the end of the Texas Tech game conjures up images of Reggie Miller against the Knicks. L.J. Cryer and Milos Uzan have led Houston to 30 wins in their last 31 games.
While it is likely that the championship hopes of all of these teams rely on the stars, it will be the unsung heroes doing work that helps these stars to a title. We’ll take a look at the one X-factor for each team who needs to be at his best for his team to cut down the nets in San Antonio.
1. Duke
Isn’t everyone on Duke a star? Cooper Flagg dwarfs everyone. If Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach were on different teams, they would likely be discussed among the best in this year’s banner crop of freshmen. Instead, they are in the very large shadow of Flagg.
Duke’s freshmen drive this team, but the most important X-Factor for this weekend will be Tulane transfer Sion James. Tyrese Proctor’s great play over the last three weeks has propelled Duke to this point, but James could be more important against a team like Houston. The Cougars will slow Duke down and force them into half-court sets. The Blue Devils will need James to hit some big shots.
James leads the team with 41.7% from three-point range. He’s not one of Duke’s big scorers, but the importance of his defense and veteran leadership can’t be understated. Neither can his sharpshooting from outside. The four teams that beat Houston did so with good shooting.
2. Houston
While it is true that most of Kelvin Sampson’s Cougar teams haven’t had a star, that’s not true this year. Cryer and Uzan aren’t big stars like the other three teams in the Final Four have, but they are stars in their own right. J’Wan Roberts and his ankle have held up well so far, so he’s not a concern anymore.
The X-Factor for Houston is Joseph Tugler. Tugler’s foul trouble against Purdue was a factor in the game being that close. He posted a double-double against Gonzaga and his work against the Gonzaga bigs was a thing of beauty. Tugler is going to have to battle with first Cooper Flagg and then either Broome or two 7-footers from Florida. The Cougars are going to need Tugler at his best to have a chance at the title.
The sophomore leads the team in blocks and is second in rebounds despite averaging just 21.7 minutes per game this season. Some of that was because of foul trouble. If Tugler can stay on the court, he’ll be the reason that Houston advances if they do.
3. Florida
Walter Clayton Jr. and Florida’s size on the inside gets all of the attention. Chicks dig 7-footers. Florida’s X-Factor isn’t quite seven feet tall (neither are Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu — they are 6-foot-11 and 6-foot-10, respectively). Thomas Haugh has had a big NCAA Tournament so far. He’s one of the best shooters on the team and he’s 6-foot-9, so he’s a matchup nightmare.
Perhaps the most important thing for the Gators is Haugh’s free-throw shooting. He shoots 81% from the foul line, which is a big number for a team that shoots in the low 70s overall. Haugh is often used as the big guy on the court at the end of close games since he’s a clutch free-throw shooter. In the toughest Final Four in recorded history, you can count on two close games in Florida’s future if they are to win the title. The X-Factor is Haugh for what he provides — size and shooting — at the end of games.
4. Auburn
I thought about Chad Baker-Mazara here. Usually, you look for the player that opposing fans hate the most and you have the X-Factor, but that also makes Baker-Mazara almost as well-known as Broome. We all know he’s going to be a factor. Auburn’s X-Factor is a player who has struggled so far in the NCAA Tournament, but they’re going to need him if they are to cut down the nets.
Miles Kelly shot 38.1% from three-point range during the regular season but is at a lowly 30.6% in the NCAA Tournament. That number is also very misleading since he nailed seven three-pointers in the opening win against Alabama State. Kelly is just 3-for-18 from downtown in the three games since.
Kelly scored 22 points in the loss to Florida earlier this season. Auburn’s fate against Florida this time around will again come down to perimeter shooting thanks to all of the size inside. The emergence of Tahaad Pettiford has helped Auburn make it this far, but they are going to need the guy that they leaned on for much of the season to hit some outside shots if Auburn is to win its first national title.
