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Joe Nicely ranks his top-10 PGA Tour players to watch for at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. Insights on the top-10 golfers for the week and reasons why they are primed and ready to win.
Now firmly into the Florida Swing, the PGA Tour heads to iconic Bay Hill this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Named for the legendary Arnold Palmer, this longstanding Tour stop carries not only Signature Event status, but remains one of the most coveted non-major championship titles in golf.
The prestige and a staggering $20 million total purse of the API has again brought out the best players on the PGA Tour. Boasting the biggest stars in golf, this field is lean and mean, featuring just 72 entrants thanks to the Tour's strategy for Signature Events.
Golfers are evaluated on their course fit for Bay Hill, their track record in the API, as well as their recent form and overall skill set. Let's dig into my top-10 power rankings for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
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No. 10 - Sungjae Im
- Following a fast start to the year, Im has now lost strokes on Approach in four of his last six tournaments.
- Despite a missed cut at the Cognizant, the South Korean gained strokes both OTT and APP.
- Lengthy track record of success at Bay Hill. Has never finished worse than T21 in six career API starts and has recorded two top-three finishes among those outings.
- Im has been excellent on the greens this year, gaining strokes putting in all starts prior to the Cognizant Classic.
No. 9 - Tommy Fleetwood
- The Englishman has finished T22 or better in all three of his worldwide starts this year.
- Gained a combined 9.6 strokes on Approach in his two U.S. starts with a T5 in his last outing (Genesis Invitational).
- Fleetwood has logged three top-10 finishes at Bay Hill in eight career API appearances.
- Consistency is king for Fleetwood, who carries a high floor this week. He's gained strokes T2G in nine of his last 10 measured starts.
Everything about this Tommy Fleetwood shot is perfect 🤤 pic.twitter.com/d7CQp3yMum
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) February 12, 2025
No. 8 - Collin Morikawa
- Continues to be one of the PGA Tour's most prolific ball strikers, currently ranks 10th on Tour in SG: APP.
- Leads PGA Tour in Birdie Average and Birdie-to-Bogey ratio in 2025.
- Morikawa has been a consistent performer this year and hasn't finished worse than T17 in three 2025 starts.
- The course fit is concerning, as he's missed the cut in his last two trips to Bay Hill.
No. 7 - Hideki Matsuyama
- Appears fully healthy after dealing with nagging injuries for multiple years.
- After two victories in 2024, Matsuyama opened 2025 with a win at The Sentry.
- Uniquely suited to handle challenging layouts such as Bay Hill, he currently ranks first in the API field in SG: Around The Green over the last 50 rounds and stands 14th on the PGA Tour in Bogey Avoidance.
No. 6 - Justin Thomas
- Looks rejuvenated in 2025. Thomas has recorded top-10 results in three of his last four starts.
- Iron play has been dialed in, as JT has gained a combined 13 strokes on Approach over his last two tournaments.
- Career API scoring average of 71.17 is tied for third-best among this week's entrants.
- Finished T21-T12 in API starts over the last two years.
No. 5 - Xander Schauffele
- Making his first start in over two months following a rib cage injury.
- Schauffele broke through in a big way in 2024, winning two major championship titles (PGA Championship and Open Championship) last year.
- Displays excellence in every facet of the game, the Californian trails just Scottie Scheffler in SG: Total over the last 50 rounds.
- Rust following the layoff is a concern, as is his middling track record at Bay Hill.
Xander Schauffele is set to return to action @APInv next week. pic.twitter.com/GMd0qpMoxO
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 28, 2025
No. 4 - Patrick Cantlay
- Heads to Bay Hill with positive momentum following top-five finishes in two of his last three starts.
- Iron play is trending up. Cantlay gained a combined 7.9 strokes on Approach in his two most recent starts after losing strokes APP in his first two 2025 starts.
- Limited API track record, but did record a T4 in the 2023 edition of this event.
No. 3 - Ludvig Aberg
- Continues to move toward superstar status. Aberg clinched the second PGA Tour victory of his career last month at the Genesis Invitational, against a Signature Event field.
- Battled an illness in starts at Farmers Insurance Open and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am following a top-five in the season-opening Sentry.
- A prodigy with the driver, Aberg finished the 2024 season ranked fourth on the PGA Tour in Total Driving.
- Top-25 finishes in both of his two career starts at Bay Hill.
Ohhhhh I’m Ludvig Aberg. I hit the ball a mile and a half. I have perfect skin and a perfect swing. My teeth could blind you every time I smile. I just made multiple millions of dollars for winning a golf tournament. Everything I wear fits me extremely well. Ohhhhhhh pic.twitter.com/2hw6T2Sjem
— Pete Hailey (@PeteHaileyNBCS) February 16, 2025
No. 2 - Rory McIlroy
- Boasts elite course history. McIlroy has a win and five additional top-10 finishes in 10 career API starts.
- Second in field in average adjusted strokes gained at Bay Hill (+2.56).
- Red-hot recent form, gained a combined 17.4 strokes T2G in his two U.S. starts this year, which has resulted in a win (AT&T Pebble Beach) and a T17 (Genesis Invitational).
- Uniquely suited to handle Bay Hill's length, McIlroy ranks first in this field in Driving Distance and SG: OTT.
No. 1 - Scottie Scheffler
- The defending API champion, Scheffler has won at Bay Hill in two of the last three years.
- Leads field in average adjusted strokes gained at Bay Hill (+3.35).
- Gained 7.2 strokes T2G en route to a T3 at the Genesis Invitational in his most recent start.
- Still regaining feel and form after a Christmas kitchen accident forced him to undergo offseason surgery on his hand.
- Leads field in SG: Total and SG: APP over last 50 rounds.
Scottie Scheffler in 2024:
RBC Heritage 🏆
Players Champion 🏆
Masters Champion 🏆
Olympic Gold Medal 🏅
Memorial Tournament 🏆
Travelers Championship 🏆
Arnold Palmer Invitational 🏆Oh and he also
Had his first child 👦🏼
Was falsely arrested and shot 66 the same day 👮🏼♂️ pic.twitter.com/s86YOb19oD
— SCHEFFLER FANS (@SchefflerFans) August 4, 2024
Enjoy the API, and thanks for reading! Good luck, RotoBaller family!
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