February 16, 2025

Washington Nationals starting pitcher DJ Herz showed exciting upside for a beleaguered rotation from June on last season. The southpaw registered a 4.16 ERA with a 3.71 FIP and 3.77 SIERA thanks to 106 strikeouts in 88 ⅔ IP. His 27.7 percent strikeout rate ranked 18th among 157 starters with at least 80 frames in 2024, tied with Michael King and Hunter Greene. His 12.9 percent swinging-strike rate tied for 24th with arms such as Zack Wheeler and Corbin Burnes. The question was control given his electrifying stuff that can lose the zone following walk rates north of 13 percent in the Minors. But he cut that to 9.4 percent in the Majors with a 6.5 percent mark through his first 10 outings, in which he had games of 13 and 10 strikeouts with zero walks. His final nine starts yielded a 12.7 percent walk rate, which could be hitters figuring him out, simple regression, or the 24-year-old flagging by late summer. His ATC projection of 150 strikeouts with a 4.10 ERA/1.33 WHIP in 134 IP leans towards more walks. Washington brought on Mike Soroka and Shinnosuke Ogasawara to vie for the No. 5 spot, and fellow prospect Cade Cavalli also lurks. UPDATE: After experiencing lesser velocity this spring, Herz is being placed on the 15-day IL with a left UCL sprain in the pitching elbow. He'd already been optioned to Triple-A but now it seems the exciting pitcher is off of most fantasy radars beyond deep stashes.--Nick Mariano - RotoBaller