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Koby has his top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings for today's Chiefs vs. Texans showdown slate for Week 16.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! Thursday night's game went pretty according to plan. The quarterbacks took over and were the top-scoring guys on the slate, but oddly enough, those scoring the TDs weren't some of the bigger names on the team outside of Gus Edwards, who I completely whiffed on. We have a big AFC showdown for us on deck as the Houston Texans (9-5) travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs (13-1).
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates, and hopefully, that trend will continue from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to today's advanced analytics, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups.
I will provide you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Chiefs vs. Texans NFL DFS showdown slate on December 21. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @DFSKoby and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts whenever you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Patrick Mahomes - QB, Kansas City Chiefs - $15.6K (DK), $14K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 3,348 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 262 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown
It is looking like Hollywood Brown may be returning to the lineup in this week's matchup. I don't expect him to have a big role but this adds another lethal option to this offense for Mahomes. Houston's run defense is stout, so I expect more of a pass-heavy game from the Chiefs. Mahomes has 37 passing attempts in seven of his last eight games and 16 touchdowns in that time as well. Mahomes should be one of the top priorities on this slate.
Nico Collins- WR, Houston Texans - $16.5K (DK), $15K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 78 targets, 53 receptions, 849 receiving yards, six touchdowns
Nico Collins has seen double-digit fantasy scoring in all but one week this year, and 20+ fantasy scoring in five of those games. The Texans could be playing from behind in this one, which could lead to Nico being peppered in targets. He has seen 33 targets across the last four weeks as well as playing in 70%+ snaps in the last three. Nico is the clear WR1 option on this slate.
Texans WR Nico Collins is a must-start against the Chiefs.
KC’s defense is solid, but it’s given up big games to No. 1 WRs this season such as Courtland Sutton and Drake London.
Collins is averaging 19.3 fantasy PPG with only one game under 10 points: pic.twitter.com/WFte1LpzqI
— Moody (@EricNMoody) December 20, 2024
Other Captains/MVPs: C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon, Travis Kelce
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DFS Flex Plays
Xavier Worthy- WR, Kansas City Chiefs - $7K (DK), $11K (FD)
Key Stats
- 2024 Stats: 78 targets, 44 receptions, 494 receiving yards, four touchdowns
With Hollywood back, Xavier might take a slight hit in targets and snaps but I don't think it will be enough to affect his production. Worthy last week played 81% of snaps, the next closest was Justin Watson at 56%. He has been targeted 30 times across the last four games, and I do like the slight discount we get compared to Hopkins who only played 45% of snaps last week. Houston is also giving up the eight most fantasy points to opposing WRs.
Xavier Worthy vs HOU
Week 15:
6 catches on 11 targets. 3 rushing attempts for 30 yards and a TD. 19.6 Fantasy Points5 straight games over 40 rec yards. 6+ targets for 4 games straight
The Texans allow the 7th most Fantasy PPG to WRs this season
— Skrip (@P2WFantasy) December 20, 2024
Ka'imi Fairbairn - K, Houston Texans - $5.2K (DK), $9K (FD)
Fairbairn has been one of the best kickers in football this season, he has scored nine FP or better in ten straight games this season. He is perfect on XPs this season and has hit 84% of his FGs and hit a long of 59 this season. Kickers this season have been a great cheaper play to add to your lineups and I have personally cashed more often with kickers than not. Including last night where Wil Lutz and Cameron Dicker were extremely good plays.
Other Flex Options: DeAndre Hopkins, Tank Dell
DFS Value Plays
Noah Gray - TE, Kansas City Chiefs - $3.2K (DK), $8K (FD)
Noah Gray continues to be a big part of this offense. He has seen 25 targets across the last five games and caught 18 of them including five touchdowns. At only 8k, he is one of the better value plays on the slate, especially from the Chiefs' side of things. Noah Gray has played 55%+ snaps in nine straight games, and although Houston has been solid against TEs, I think the focus will be on Kelce rather than on Gray.
Robert Woods - WR, Denver Broncos - $1K (DK), $6K (FD)
John Metchie III is out for this game, paving the way for both Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson to see some more playing time. Robert Woods already saw 48% of snaps in last week's win over Miami where he caught both his targets. At only 6k on FD too, he is worth a shot as the WR3 in this offense. I would get a little bit of both guys though as either one could be in for a good night with Metchie out of this one.
Other Value Plays: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Xavier Hutchinson, Dalton Schultz
Enjoy your week, and good luck, everyone!
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