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Justin Carter looks at the Saints offense after two weeks of the 2024 season. After a strong start, what is the fantasy football value on this offense going forward?
The biggest surprise in the NFL this season has been the performance of the New Orleans Saints offense. A 47-10 win over the Panthers to open the season was one thing, but defeating the Cowboys 44-19 in Week 2 highlighted that this offense might be for real.
At the same time, no one expected this to happen. Is it sustainable? Are the Saints a really good offensive team this year, or did they just happen to have two really good games?
Is it time to hoard your Saints players, or should you sell high on them? Let's look at the rest-of-season outlooks for the New Orleans Saints players after the team's strong start.
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Is Alvin Kamara Back?
Usually, I'm tuned into "NFL RedZone," but this week, I was at my in-laws' house on Sunday and was stuck watching the 49ers/Vikings game. But every time I opened my phone to check on the other games, Alvin Kamara scored another touchdown. Heck, he's probably finding the end zone somewhere right now as you read this article.
Most weeks leading all RBs in fantasy points since 2004, per @ESPNStatsInfo:
1. Alvin Kamara: 15
2. LaDainian Tomlinson: 14
3. Arian Foster: 10
4. Christian McCaffrey: 9Alvin Kamara = that dude pic.twitter.com/JNclCRJmHT
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 17, 2024
Kamara made the Pro Bowl in each of his first five NFL seasons but has had a dip in production recently. Kamara averaged at least 4.6 yards per carry in each of his first four NFL campaigns but has been at 4.0 or below in three consecutive seasons.
It's part of why I don't buy that Kamara can maintain this level over the full 2024 season. He's been stellar so far, scoring five total touchdowns, with four of those coming against Dallas. He's averaging 5.7 yards per carry right now. That's got to come down, right?
Kamara has these huge games sometimes and I wouldn't necessarily sell him because he should remain an RB1 play going forward. However, I'd also temper my expectations just a little bit.
Will Derek Carr Keep This Up?
Look, Derek Carr has always been a pretty good quarterback. He's been underrated for years. But he's also 33 years old and is in a spot where he is what he is, you know?
So while I view Carr as an above-average QB, I think his NFL-leading 12.8% touchdown rate is probably not something that's going to be sustainable going forward.
Not gonna lie: Didn't have Derek Carr turning into the best QB alive on my 2024 bingo card pic.twitter.com/5kEt8oLZyS
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 17, 2024
That's not to say Carr can't continue playing some high-level football, though. He might not maintain his league lead in all the categories that he's currently leading, but he has the weapons around him to have one of his best NFL campaigns. For example, his career high in yards per attempt is 7.9, but he could finish above that mark in 2024.
As far as fantasy goes, you likely aren't going to be able to sell high on Carr. I just don't see anyone clamoring to give you real value for him, so it's best to just ride this hot streak as long as it keeps going.
Rashid Shaheed Breakout SZN?
In 2023, Rashid Shaheed always felt like he was on the verge of breaking out. He'd have some huge game where he got loose for a giant chunk play, and then he'd follow that up with a nothingburger. For example, in Week 8, he caught three passes for 153 yards and a touchdown. One game later, he had three catches again, but for just 22 yards.
Early on in 2024, it looks like we're getting a little more consistency in Shaheed's role. He's been targeted 4.5 times per game, catching seven passes for 169 yards and two touchdowns. He's found the end zone in both New Orleans games.
Despite the production, I would sell high on Shaheed. He's bound to have a strong season, but he won't score 17 touchdowns. If you get a good offer for him, I'd take it.
Is Chris Olave a WR1 ROS?
Another reason I'd sell high on Shaheed? He's going to play second fiddle to Chris Olave, who is quietly one of the league's best wide receivers.
While Olave has been relatively quiet this season, I still view him as a low-end WR1 going forward. His Week 2 stat line of four catches for 81 yards should be much more in line with his usual production than his Week 1 line of two catches for 11 yards.
Chris Olave is in the best offense of his life.
40% target share last weekend.
Eventually Saints will have to throw the ball for 4 quarters.
Talent has never been the question, don’t bail now people. pic.twitter.com/swzyFqdmhA
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) September 17, 2024
Olave, who has finished with over 1,000 yards in both of his NFL seasons, should hit that mark for a third consecutive year. While Shaheed's big-play upside and Kamara's touchdown numbers have been the big stories so far in the Big Easy, Olave is just too reliable of a chain-mover to take a backseat.
This might be a great time to buy low on Olave if you have a league mate who is looking at New Orleans' exploding offense and thinking Olave should have better numbers. Those better numbers will come. Don't doubt the third-year receiver out of Ohio State.
Taysom Hill and the Actual Tight Ends
It can be hard to know how to talk about the tight-end position in New Orleans because Taysom Hill ... well, it's hard to pigeonhole him into the tight-end role. He has just three targets this season, catching two passes for one yard, but he also has eight carries. He also throws the ball sometimes, though he's yet to attempt a pass in 2024.
Hill also suffered a chest injury this week, though the team doesn't think it's serious. Hill's a frustrating player when it comes to fantasy because he's capable of scoring a touchdown any time the Saints are in the red zone, but he's also just as likely to have a game where he finishes with 30 scrimmage yards.
As for actual tight ends, Juwan Johnson and Foster Moreau both caught touchdowns in Week 1, but in Week 2, Moreau was out with an injury, and Johnson wasn't targeted a single time. You can safely ignore the Saints tight ends in fantasy.
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