RADIO
With one final week of tournament preparation until our first major championship of the 2024 season, many of the premier players on the PGA Tour are set to take on TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. We have a stronger-than-normal field with several players we don't typically see play this event. It's the third longest-running event on the PGA Tour schedule and I'm excited to break down my top 10 players in the field for next week.
We are quite familiar with TPC San Antonio as it has hosted this event since 2010. Corey Conners is the defending champion and has won this event twice in his career, but this field got a boost of adrenaline when Rory McIlroy decided to commit about a month ago, headlining the field and making a definitive change from his Masters prep that he deployed in previous years.
I hope these rankings have become a staple in your weekly preparation and the place where you start your research for the week. I have carefully evaluated the field to project course fits and expected results, in an attempt to give you a glimpse at how my brain operates when it comes to handicapping golf. In addition to my Top 10 rankings, I will provide a brief summary for each player to give some reasoning behind their rankings. As always, thank you for your support, and good luck. Let's get this started!
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#10. Matt Fitzpatrick
One of the top players debuting at TPC San Antonio this week is Matt Fitzpatrick. He's coming off his best performance of the 2024 season at The Players where he finished in solo fifth place while gaining over four strokes on approach and a ton more with the putter, a familiar recipe for his best performances.
Finally notching a top-10 was a big step in the right direction in terms of confidence for Fitzpatrick who is eagerly looking to peak for major championship season. At TPC Sawgrass, he recorded his best week Tee-to-Green in nearly a full calendar year, which should honestly come as no massive surprise when he revealed to the media that he and his team finally diagnosed a club setup error with a weight in his driver that has been in place and forgotten about for far too long. Unbelievable.
Nothing to see here, just Matt Fitzpatrick forgetting he added extra weight to his driver FOR ALMOST A WHOLE YEAR.
Story by @ShaneRyanHere: https://t.co/XVvMcTzQb4 pic.twitter.com/zguwWNvt7W
— Jeff Eisenband (@JeffEisenband) March 15, 2024
#9. Harris English
If you are looking for a player who has been ball-striking it great over the last six weeks, then look no further than Harris English. T17, seventh, 21st, and T19 have been his results in his previous four starts. English had been dismal throughout his career at TPC Sawgrass but rectified that somewhat this year and managed to play very well through the weekend to keep his run going.
English has managed to gain strokes putting on the field in seven of his last ten starts and has been in the midst of one of the best runs in his career off the tee in terms of blending distance and accuracy. I believe he should set up well on a course like TPC San Antonio and will be able to continue to build on his strong 2024 campaign.
#8. Brian Harman
I was this close to nailing a Brian Harman pick at The Players at massive 150-1 odds but it just wasn't meant to be as some guy named Scottie ruined my Sunday. That said, we could see the signs coming with Harman, and it was directly linked to his uptick in iron play that he showcased flashes of during the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Let us not forget the most recent Major Champion in professional golf is Mr. Brian Harman. The Valspar Championship was a natural letdown spot for Harman which I am not going to overly penalize him for this week. In his previous two starts before the Valspar week, he gained an astonishing 14 strokes on approach combined. Watch out for Harman!
#7. Collin Morikawa
I have been picking on Collin Morikawa quite a bit this season in the head-to-head matchup markets, but he is showing up in Texas this week for one reason...to find SOMETHING! That something is his approach play. It's not that it has been terrible this season, but we are talking about a guy who we once classified as the best iron player in the world.
2024 has been a struggle and he has no history at the Valero Texas Open previously to hang his hat on this week. Morikawa should be ultra-motivated to kick start his season and TPC San Antonio is usually a course that will extensively reward great middle-iron approach play. If he can string together a few shots and regain some confidence, he'll find himself in a comfort zone with his ability to hit an abundance of fairways and give himself ample opportunities.
#6. Max Homa
Here is something that is hard to believe. Since the Sentry, Max Homa has failed to score better than -8 under par for a single tournament this season. He's long had the moniker of inconsistency, but the valleys have outweighed the peaks this season as Homa has yet to find himself in firm contention down the stretch on a Sunday.
I believe it mostly hinges on the Driver. He's bleeding strokes off the tee in nearly every event and TPC San Antonio can really punish you if you hit it in the wrong spots off the tee. He's another player with no real positive course history here, but is a top-15 talent and can make a push for victory any given week if he can finally get it all to sync up and click. He still can pull off some crazy shots which only a few would even attempt on Tour.
MAX! What a shot. Woah!#THEPLAYERS | @MaxHoma pic.twitter.com/ej1N7kMBXN
— THE PLAYERS (@THEPLAYERS) March 14, 2024
#5. Jordan Spieth
This list doesn't stop with world-class talented players who are currently struggling as Jordan Spieth checks in fifth in our Power Rankings this week. Spieth does have one thing going for him though, he loves himself some Valero Texas Open, where he managed to break a long drought of victory in 2021 to get back in the winner's circle.
It's hard to pinpoint, but I follow him extensively at The Players and he just looked off. He showcased frustration on more than a few occasions and it likely comes down to the fact that he seems lost with his iron play at the moment. That said, he's shown the ability to rekindle magic at certain courses throughout his career when the vibes are right and this is definitely one of those spots on the schedule.
🚨BREAKING NEWS🚨
After nearly 4 Long years...
Your 2021 Valero Texas Open Champion, Ladies and Gentlemen:
🏆Jordan Spieth🏆
— Spieth Tracker (@Spieth_Tracker) April 4, 2021
#4. Corey Conners
The boots fit like a glove on Corey Conners. He has two wins as a professional golfer on the PGA Tour and both have come at this very event. The 2019 and 2023 Champion is back at TPC San Antonio to defend his title this week and appears to be trending in a direction that would leave him primed to capture another victory.
Conners has been doing it lately with his iron play, which is always how he gains on the field. He has gained 3 strokes on approach in four consecutive starts coming into this week. He's the ultimate horse for the course and gets a massive bump in the power rankings due to the course history. Let's see if the Canadian can once again lace up those cowboy boots in Texas!
#3. Ludvig Aberg
I feel like the noise created early in the season around Ludvig Aberg has calmed down a bit over the past month. Well, expect that to ramp up again this week at the Valero as the Texas Tech grad returns back home and is set to tackle TPC San Antonio with his lethal combination of distance and accuracy off the tee box.
There is not a course on tour that isn't a good fit for Aberg, but I think this layout can accentuate his greatness with the driver. He played amazing at The Players and finished in solo eighth place despite losing over a full stroke on the greens at TPC Sawgrass. Texans love their own, and Aberg should be a fan favorite with a great opportunity to capture his 2nd PGA Tour victory in San Antonio this week.
#2. Rory McIlroy
I'm aware that Rory McIlroy will undoubtedly be the favorite on the odds board this week, but I have some major concerns with his form. It's been a while since we have seen him put all three phases of his game together in the same week. It's also hard not to imagine that his focus is centered fully around TPC San Antonio and not peeking ahead to Augusta National.
McIlroy has only played this event once in the last five seasons, which resulted in a missed cut. Some may look at his week at The Players with a T19 finish as a positive, but you have to remember he was the first-round leader and managed to gain over four strokes putting on the week. Those weeks need to be wins for McIlroy, not top-20s. He's the most talented player in the field and we can't forget it, but there is one player this week I actually think is more likely to win this event...
#1. Hideki Matsuyama
All systems have been firing over the last six weeks for Hideki Matsuyama. After putting together an epic final round to win the Genesis Invitational, Matsuyama backed that up with a T12 and T6 in Florida. Some recurring neck injury concerns came up before The Players, but we watched this guy grind in a hunched-over position for over an hour on the putting green before the tournament which led me to believe he was fully healthy and ready to go.
His approach play has been arguably the second-best in the game lately behind only Scottie Scheffler. Matsuyama also possesses just enough positive history at this particular event to give him the nod over some of the other highly talented players in the field. He has gained an outrageous +34 strokes gained total over his last four events and I expect him to continue his run of form and compete for the trophy on Sunday at the Valero Texas Open. Look at these numbers he has put together recently, they will tell you the story.
Best of luck this week Rotoballer family!
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