RADIO
Aaron Civale s is a starting pitcher fantasy baseball draft sleeper, and an ADP draft value for 2024. Target Civale as an undervalued SP in fantasy baseball drafts.
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 201
CURRENT ADP: ~243 overall
ANALYSIS: Civale was dealt from Cleveland to Tampa Bay last year, finishing 2023 with 122 innings pitched across 23 starts. His 3.46 ERA was the best mark of his career since his rookie season and his xERA of 3.71 and FIP of 3.57 suggest that it was not a fluke.
Aaron Civale, Filthy Curveballs. 😷
5Ks thru 2. pic.twitter.com/vsznqma0sv
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 15, 2023
With Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen on the shelf and not set to return until the second half of the season (plus with Glasnow now in L.A.), Civale slots in as Tampa's #2 starter behind Zach Eflin. His ERA took a jump in Tampa as he struggled a bit with the long ball (seven HR allowed in ten starts), but he maintained solid control and upped his strikeouts in a big way (29% in Tampa vs. 20% in Cleveland).
ATC projections call for a 2024 season that is somewhere in between his stats in Cleveland and Tampa, with a 4.04 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 16.3% K-BB%, and a 9-8 record. He's not a flashy pick for certain, but he should contribute decent numbers across the board and won't be a drain in any particular category.
We know that the Rays get the most out of their pitchers and Civale is a guy who can throw 5-6 different pitches. We've seen other Tampa pitchers have major success without having elite velocity (Springs, Rasmussen, Eflin) and it's certainly possible that Civale is the next success story.
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