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NFL free agency is here. With the legal tampering period opening on Monday, the deals came quickly, with a number of key players changing teams on the first day of free agency.
But we also saw a number of key players not change teams, opting to stick around in their current digs for a little bit longer instead of testing out the free-agent market.
Let's take a look at the fantasy outlook for the veteran players who stuck around with their old teams.
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Michael Pittman Jr. - WR, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts locked up Michael Pittman Jr. on a three-year deal, giving second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson a true No. 1 receiver to throw to. Pittman caught 109 passes for 1,152 yards last season with four touchdowns for the Colts.
The Colts now have re-signed five of their own players:
🏈Michael Pittman: 3 years, $70M
🏈Kenny Moore: 3 years, $30M
🏈Grover Stewart: 3 years, $39M
🏈Rigoberto Sanchez: 3 years, $7.5M
🏈Tyquan Lewis: 2 years, $12M https://t.co/etlJ9gdAVA— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 12, 2024
It's possible that moving to Richardson on a full-time basis in 2024 could result in a slight drop in production for Pittman, as Richardson's still a raw passer who needs to improve on his accuracy. However, the reverse of that is also a potentiality: Richardson's big arm could increase the ceiling for Pittman as he gets more opportunities down the field. Richardson averaged 8.0 air yards per attempt in his limited action last season, while Gardner Minshew was at 7.3.
Pittman finished as a high-end WR2 in fantasy last year. He has a chance to finish as a WR1 in 2024, but should still be drafted as a high-end WR2.
Baker Mayfield - QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield wasn't even the guaranteed starter when he joined the Buccaneers last year, as he had to beat Kyle Trask out for the role. He did, and then he had the best season of his NFL career, leading the Bucs to a playoff appearance. Mayfield completed 64.3% of his passes for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns with 10 picks. He rushed for another touchdown as well.
There's definitely some risk for Tampa here, as they're handing Mayfield a three-year, $100 million deal based on one season of work. A year ago, it looked like Mayfield's NFL career could be over; now, he's expected to be the long-term answer for the Buccaneers.
With Mike Evans back in the fold, he'll be surrounded by a really good supporting cast again, so as long as the wheels don't fall off, Mayfield should throw for at least 3,500 yards and 20 touchdowns in 2024, which is a fairly conservative estimate. He should be viewed as a solid QB2 option in fantasy.
Noah Fant - TE, Seattle Seahawks
From a numbers perspective, Noah Fant is coming off his worst NFL season, as he set new career-low marks in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. He found the end zone a total of zero times.
But after the Seahawks committed to him for two more seasons, Fant's stock should be looking up. Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly are gone now, so there should be less competition for targets for Fant, who played just 55% of Seattle's snaps in 2023, which was also his lowest mark.
New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb comes over from Washington, where tight end Jack Westover caught 46 passes last season for the Huskies. There's optimism that Fant can have a pretty good season, though for fantasy purposes he's a low-end TE2 at best.
Mike Evans - WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It looked like Mike Evans was going to test the waters and find a big payday elsewhere, but the veteran wide receiver wound up sticking around with Tampa. In 10 seasons with the Buccaneers, Evans has 10 1,000-yard seasons, including catching 79 passes for 1,255 yards this season. He led the NFL with 13 touchdown receptions.
Still a Buc: Mike Evans and the #Buccaneers have agreed to terms on a two-year deal to avoid free agency and keep him in Tampa, per his agents @DerykGilmore and Darren Jones.
From the seventh pick in 2014 to potentially the Hall of Fame, Evans might do it all in a Bucs uniform. pic.twitter.com/0mUvwf3Uop
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) March 4, 2024
Despite his age and the massive amount of wear on his tires, Evans is going strong. This can't last forever, but as long as quarterback Baker Mayfield has another strong season, Evans should wind up with his 11th 1,000-yard season in a row, though it wouldn't be a shock to see him just barely get there.
Evans should be viewed as a low-end WR1 in fantasy, though it's fair to be a little scared off by his age, so he might fall to the high-end WR2 range in some drafts. If 12 or so wideouts are off the board and Evans is still there, jump on him.
Kendrick Bourne - WR, New England Patriots
Kendrick Bourne played just eight games last season, but he made an impact for New England, catching 37 of his 55 targets for 406 yards and four touchdowns. If he had played the full year, he would have been the team's top producer.
Heading into 2024, Bourne is probably the No. 1 receiver for the Patriots, though Demario Douglas, who caught 49 passes for 561 yards as a rookie, could challenge for that role. So, too, could a rookie, if New England chooses to draft a wide receiver with one of their earlier picks.
#Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne 3-year, $19.5 million contract, per source:
$33 million max value
$8 million guaranteed
$4.2 million signing bonus
$850,000 per year per-game roster bonus and $150,000 per year workout bonus2024: $1.3M base salary (guaranteed)
$5.5M incentives… pic.twitter.com/34yOvdJ25b— Andrew Callahan (@_AndrewCallahan) March 12, 2024
The Patriots are a confusing team to understand in 2024. We don't know what they'll do at No. 3 overall. They could draft LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels there, but he's still a bit of a mystery. They could draft Marvin Harrison Jr., who instantly becomes WR1 for New England and destroys Bourne's fantasy value. They could trade down and take a different wideout, which would also hurt Bourne, though maybe not as much. Whatever happens, I'd be hesitant to count on Bourne to produce for my fantasy team in 2024.
Dalton Schultz - TE, Houston Texans
Is Dalton Schultz the NFL's most talented tight end? No, but he's an above-average player who found himself in a great home with the Houston Texans last season, so it makes sense that Schultz stuck around Houston on a three-year deal.
Last season, Schultz was targeted 88 times, catching 59 passes for 635 yards and five touchdowns. The numbers didn't reach the level of his breakout 2021 campaign with the Dallas Cowboys, but it was a strong performance from the sixth-year player.
As far as future fantasy value goes, Schultz's upside depends on a few things. First, there's Brevin Jordan, who came on strong late in the year. If the Texans get the second tight end involved more, that could eat into Schultz's production. So could the addition of a bona fide No. 3 receiver to join Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Schultz is a high-end TE2 with TE1 upside.
Hunter Henry - TE, New England Patriots
For a team whose passing offense struggled so much last year, you'd think New England wouldn't have been so quick to re-sign various parts of that passing attack. Hunter Henry's back on a three-year deal, though.
Last season, Henry caught 42 passes for 419 yards and six touchdowns. The yardage total was the lowest of his NFL career, but it was hard to be productive with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe throwing the ball. He'll presumably get a quarterback upgrade in 2024.
Even if that's the case, it's hard to see Henry as anything more than a low-end TE2 next season. There are too many other ascending players at the position right now for a veteran with a middling track record to have much appeal.
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