Biggest Running Back Surprises - Fantasy Football Year In Review

Mike breaks down the biggest surprises at running back from the 2023 fantasy football season. Who has seen their ADP affected heading into 2024?

The 2023 fantasy football season is over, and it’s time to turn the page towards next year. While we have over six months before a meaningful NFL game gets played, it’s never too early to prepare for the fantasy season.

One of the more critical things fantasy players can do to get a leg up on their league mates is look back at the previous year and examine the trends and surprise performances.

Let’s look at the seven biggest running back surprises from last year.

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Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins

Anyone who plays dynasty fantasy football knows that production from a running back starts to decline around the age of 28 or 29. However, Mostert bucked against that trend in 2023, finishing the year as the RB2 by averaging 17 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The veteran running back scored 36.7% of his career fantasy points last season.

Furthermore, Mostert was a touchdown machine. He led the NFL in rushing scores (18) and tied Christian McCaffrey for the most offensive touchdowns in the league (21). By comparison, Mostert had 19 offensive touchdowns over the first eight years of his career. Despite splitting the backfield work, the veteran running back was a massive fantasy value as a late-round draft pick.

Raheem Mostert scores his 14th total touchdown of the year!#MIAvsNYJ on Prime Video
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/PL1eCJzDjs pic.twitter.com/3d13i4ci99

— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2023

Breece Hall, New York Jets

Many had concerns about Hall heading into last year. The former Iowa State star was outstanding as a rookie, averaging 15.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in Week 7, ending a promising season. Hall started the year on a snap count, totaling only 32 rushing attempts and 27.4 fantasy points over the first four games. However, everything changed in Week 5.

The Jets took Hall off the snap count in their matchup against the Denver Broncos. The Iowa State product had a massive performance, totaling 177 rushing yards and 26.9 fantasy points. He averaged eight yards per rushing attempt, making the Broncos defense look like a high school squad. Despite playing on a dysfunctional offense, Hall ended the season as the RB4, averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game.

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

There wasn’t a more surprising running back in 2023 than Williams. Very few thought the second-year player would have any fantasy value last year, with Cam Akers being the presumed featured running back. However, Sean McVay had other plans. Williams had 15 rushing attempts, two touchdowns, and 17.4 half-point PPR fantasy points in Week 1. Yet, that was only the start of things to come.

After an impressive season debut, the former Notre Dame star was outstanding the rest of the year. He was the RB6, averaging 19.9 fantasy points per game last season despite missing five games. Williams was the RB2 on a points-per-game basis, finishing only behind Christian McCaffrey. Furthermore, he was outstanding during the fantasy playoffs, totaling five rushing touchdowns and 22.5 fantasy points per game, scoring 16.4 or more in every contest.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

White was one of the more polarizing fantasy football running backs heading into the 2023 season. Many said he was underrated because of his projected featured role. Others called the former Arizona State star overrated and claimed he would lose the starting role by midseason. The former was correct, as White ended the year as the RB7, averaging 13.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game.

The second-year player wasn’t the most efficient running back, averaging 3.6 yards per rushing attempt. However, he came 10 yards short of 1,000 for the season and totaled six rushing touchdowns. White became a must-start running back for fantasy players because of his role in the passing game. The former Arizona State star ranked fourth among running backs in receptions (64) and third in receiving yards (549).

On 3rd and goal, the handoff to Rachaad White turns into a TD 😤 @Chaad_1

📺: #CHIvsTB on FOX⁰📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/FhXtx7w3wW pic.twitter.com/fRNY0tiX6A

— NFL (@NFL) September 17, 2023

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys

Unfortunately, not every surprise is a good one. Pollard had a breakout season in 2022, ending the year as the RB7, averaging 14.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite sharing the backfield with Ezekiel Elliott. Therefore, the fantasy football community made the former Memphis star a top-five running back in their rankings heading into last season. The Cowboys released Elliott, replacing him with Ronald Jones and Deuce Vaughn, putting Pollard in position for a featured workload.

Yet, the star running back struggled in 2023. Pollard ended the season as the RB15, averaging 11.5 fantasy points per game. The running back had 59 more rushing attempts than the year before but totaled fewer yards. His yards per rushing attempt average dropped from 5.2 in 2023 to four last season. While Pollard said he wasn’t 100% healthy until late in the year, Dallas likely won’t re-sign him to be their featured guy in 2024.

Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns

The Browns are big fans of Ford. They let Kareem Hunt walk in the offseason. Cleveland also didn't add a veteran to the backfield, making the former Cincinnati star the team's second running behind Nick Chubb. Unfortunately, Ford got more work in 2023 than the Browns wanted after Chubb suffered a gruesome knee injury in Week 2. However, the second-year player was productive for the team and fantasy players.

Despite Cleveland re-signing Hunt after the Chubb injury, Ford ended the season as the RB17, averaging 11.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He averaged only 0.1 fewer fantasy points per game than D'Andre Swift. More importantly, Ford was outstanding in the passing game despite playing with five quarterbacks, totaling 44 receptions for 319 receiving yards and five touchdowns. He ranked second on the team in receiving scores, finishing only behind David Njoku.

De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

Everyone wants to talk about Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and the Dolphins’ passing attack. Yet, it was their ground game that was unbelievable in 2023. The team ranked 15th in rushing attempts but finished sixth in yards, first in touchdowns, and first in yards per attempt. While Raheem Mostert ended the year as the RB2, averaging 67.5 rushing yards and 17 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, Achane was also impressive.

Unfortunately, the rookie running back missed six games because of injury and left others early. Yet, he was the RB24, averaging 16.1 fantasy points per game. Achane finished as the RB4 on a points-per-game basis, ahead of several big-name stars, including Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley. The former Texas A&M star had the top fantasy football performance of the year in Week 3 against the Denver Broncos, totaling 233 offensive yards, four touchdowns, and 49.3 fantasy points in the blowout win.

Devon Achane barrels in for his first career TD!

📺: #DENvsMIA on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/UQdQ05hqXN pic.twitter.com/BI27ixpY4T

— NFL (@NFL) September 24, 2023

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