RADIO
Analyzing all 16 drivers that made it into the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs and their chances of advancing from the Round of 16 to the Round of 12.
The regular season for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series is officially complete, and we now have ten races before we crown a Champion. The Round of 16 starts this weekend at Darlington Raceway, with the other two races of this first round being at Kansas Speedway and Bristol Motor Speedway.
The Cup Series has raced at all three tracks this season, although the Bristol race earlier this year was on the dirt track, so that's not comparable at all. Still, we have had races at both Darlington (won by William Byron) and Kansas (won by Denny Hamlin) this season. As we've seen with this NextGen car, typically the cars that were fast the first visit are also fast the second time around, so it's nice to have the data from those races as we analyze this first round.
In total, 16 drivers made it into the Playoffs for the Cup Series, with a couple of notable drivers missing out: Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman. Elliott was considered one of the Championship contenders early on this season, and Bowman is always capable of getting a win or two during the year. These two missing the postseason have allowed a couple of the mid-tier drivers to make their way into this year's Playoffs field.
How NASCAR's Playoffs Work
The NASCAR postseason is ten races long and can be an exciting, elimination-filled spectacle to watch. The ten races are broken down into four rounds, the Round of 16, the Round of 12, the Round of 8, and then the Championship race. Each of the first three rounds contain three races each, and then the Championship race is one finale.
Drivers earned Playoffs points during the regular season based on race wins, Stage wins, and the regular-season points standings. These points are carried over into each round for each driver; for example, William Byron locked in 36 Playoff points during the regular season. He will start the Round of 16 with those 36 points already accredited to him, and if he makes the Round of 12, he will once again start with 36 points.
Four drivers are eliminated after each round. If any Playoff driver wins a race during the round, he is automatically locked into the next round. After that, the points standings of the rest of the drivers determine who advances and who is eliminated from contention. The driver points reset at the beginning of each round, although each driver gets their aforementioned locked-in Playoffs points to start each round.
William Byron's Round One Outlook
Current Form: William Byron had one of the strongest regular seasons of the year and is sitting atop of the points standings to start the Playoffs alongside Martin Truex Jr with 36 points already. Byron's five wins through the first 26 races this year was the best in the series, and he won at all different track types: intermediate, short flat, road course, and superspeedway.
How Round One Shapes Up: The No. 24 Chevrolet could be a contender to win all three races in Round One of the Playoffs. Byron went to victory lane at Darlington earlier this year, finished 3rd at Kansas despite an early-race spin, and he has back-to-back top-five finishes at Bristol. There is really no weak track for him in this round.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Very high. This is one of the most complete teams in NASCAR right now, and with 36 Playoffs points already in the bag, it will take a couple of catastrophic races in Round One for William Byron to be near the cut line after the three races are done.
Martin Truex Jr's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Most sportsbooks have Martin Truex Jr pegged as the favorite to win the Championship this year, and it's hard to argue that. Truex won the regular season points Championship and, like William Byron, has 36 points locked in for each round of the Playoffs. It took a few months at the start of the season for this No. 19 team to find their groove, but they have three victories this year and have been a constant top-five threat pretty much week in and week out since then.
How Round One Shapes Up: Looking at the three races coming up, Truex really has just one weak spot: Bristol. He has just two top-five finishes there in 32 career starts and hasn't finished inside that mark since the 2012 season. However, the good news is that Truex had one of the fastest cars at both Darlington and Kansas earlier this season, and he has multiple wins at both of those tracks.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Very high. Those 36 points that Truex has locked in essentially cover up his typical Bristol deficit, and he should have the speed to lock himself into Round Two at either Darlington or Kansas. Like Byron, it will take catastrophic races at both Darlington and Kansas before we even think about the possibility of Truex missing out on Round Two.
Denny Hamlin's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Like the entire Joe Gibbs Racing stable, Denny Hamlin and his No. 11 Toyota really heated up during the summer and found a ton of speed. Coming into the Playoffs, Hamlin has four top-five finishes over the last six races, and he ranked 3rd-best in average finish (12.3) during the regular season. He was 5th-fastest in Green Flag Speed and 2nd-best in Average Running Position during those first 26 races.
How Round One Shapes Up: The first three races are great tracks for Denny Hamlin. He has four career wins at Darlington, four career wins at Kansas, and has gone to victory lane twice at Bristol. Not to mention, Hamlin won the Kansas race earlier this season, and should be the favorite heading into that race weekend.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Very high. Hamlin may not have quite as many points locked in as William Byron and Martin Truex Jr, but his 25-point head-start for this round of the Playoffs is solid. His chances of advancing to the Round of 12 aren't quite as high as the Byron and Truex, but Hamlin is solidly the 3rd-most-likely to continue on in the postseason this year.
Chris Buescher's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Where did he come from!? Chris Buescher finished the regular season with the second-most wins (three) and also the second-best average finish (12.2) during the first 26 races of the year. A big reason for this is because Buescher never really had any awful races, as the No. 17 Ford has came home 18th or better in all but three races this entire season.
How Round One Shapes Up: This round actually sets up decently well for Chris Buescher. He struggled with speed in the first Darlington race this season, but his teammate, Brad Keselowski, was fine. At Kansas, Buescher had mid-teens speed, but Ford has gotten better since then. And then when it comes to Bristol, guess who won that race last season? That's right: Chris Buescher.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Above average. Buescher's 21 points to start out the Round of 16 is going to help him a bit. The biggest issue for this No. 17 team is going to be getting Stage points during this first round. Buescher hasn't been a great qualifier this season and that could hurt him when it comes to getting Stage points in the Playoffs. Consistency is what will likely carry him through.
Kyle Busch's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Kyle Busch had a strong regular season in his first year with Richard Childress Racing, collecting three wins along with the 9th-best average finish in the series (14.1). He also had the second-most top-10 finishes (14) during the first 26 races this year, trailing only Martin Truex Jr, who had 15 top-10 results during that same time span.
How Round One Shapes Up: These are some great tracks for Kyle Busch. The No. 8 Chevrolet had top-five speed at Darlington earlier this year, top-10 speed at Kansas, and Busch is an eight-time winner at Bristol. The biggest concern would be this RCR team completely whiffing on a setup for one or two of these races, which is something they've struggled with a bit this season.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Moderately high. Having those 19 points locked in is going to help Kyle Busch quite a bit, and the three tracks in this round have, historically, been great venues for him. It can be hard to trust a Richard Childress Racing car in the Playoffs, but Rowdy has the talent to make up the gap here.
Kyle Larson's Round One Outlook
Current Form: You've got to think that the luck is going to turn around for Kyle Larson and this No. 5 team soon. They were only able to secure two wins during the regular season this year but could've easily had five or more. Season-to-date, the No. 5 Chevrolet has had the best Green Flag Speed this season, and Larson ranks 5th-best in Average Running Position.
How Round One Shapes Up: This is a great round for Kyle Larson. He's posted five podium finishes in 11 career starts at Darlington, has won or finished runner-up in three of the last four Kansas races, and has been a consistent top-five threat at Bristol for the last four or five years.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: High. Despite having one of the fastest cars all season long, Kyle Larson was only able to secure 17 Playoffs points during the regular season, which lowers his capacity for mistakes during the Playoffs. He will likely have top-five speed at all three tracks in this round, though, so it'll likely take disaster striking multiple times for Larson to miss out on Round Two.
Christopher Bell's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Bell has been solid all season long, and he has 14 points to start this round of the Playoffs. During the first 26 races this year, the No. 20 team had the third-most top-10 finishes (13) and the sixth-best average finish (13.6). Also noteworthy is the fact that Christopher Bell has been great at qualifying this season, with the fifth-best average starting position (10.9) thus far during the 2023 season.
How Round One Shapes Up: Christopher Bell is capable of top-five finishes at all three tracks in this round. He has ranked 6th-fastest or higher in Total Speed Ranking in all recent races at Darlington, Kansas, and Bristol. And with the Toyota/Joe Gibbs Racing power under the hood, it's hard to see the No. 20 struggling much during the first round.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: High. Christopher Bell isn't a flashy, dominator-type of race car driver, but he can consistently rack up Stage points and challenge for top-five finishes. That's all a driver needs to do in this first round to advance to the Round of 12.
Ross Chastain's Round One Outlook
Current Form: This No. 1 Trackhouse Racing team needs to find speed, and they need to find it now. Chastain got that win at Nashville back in June, but over the last 14 Cup Series races, that has been his only top-five finish and one of just two single-digit results. After leading the points standings earlier in the year, Chastain has fallen off a cliff when it comes to speed.
How Round One Shapes Up: These are a pretty good set of tracks for Ross Chastain, but will he have the speed in the car? Chastain could have won at Darlington earlier this year, plus he had solid top-10 speed at Kansas this season and came away with a fifth-place finish. At Bristol last season, the No. 1 Chevrolet came home in 6th.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Lower than you might think. Several people crowned Ross Chastain as an elite driver and a true Championship contender back during the spring months, but now a good day for this No. 1 team is a top-10 finish--and that's not the type of ceiling performance that a Championship-caliber team puts out on a regular basis. The upcoming race at Darlington will be the most telling sign for Chastain's Championship chances. If the No. 1 is slow for that race, we could easily see an early Chastain exit from this year's Playoffs.
Brad Keselowski's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Chris Buescher is getting the wins for Roush-Fenway Keselowski Racing right now, but we've also seen an elevated performance out of Brad Keselowski as of late. Coming into the Playoffs, BK has posted five top-10 finishes over the last eight races, and his average finish of 13.8 was tied for 8th-best in the series during the regular season.
How Round One Shapes Up: Darlington has been a good track for Keselowski during this NextGen era, and he finished in 4th-place there earlier this season. Keselowski could struggle at Kansas, as this No. 6 team has struggled to find speed at intermediates this year, but he's a three-time winner at Bristol and led over 100 laps in that race one year ago.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Slightly above average. It'd be a little higher if Keselowski had more than 10 points locked in to start this round of the Playoffs, but this is a driver who rarely makes any major mistakes, and the speed is trending in the right direction for his race cars as of late.
Tyler Reddick's Round One Outlook
Current Form: There is always talk about Tyler Reddick's potential, but he really is a boom-or-bust type of driver, and always has been. Reddick has seven top-five finishes this season along with six finishes of 30th-place or worse. That's not the type of performance you can have during the Playoffs if you want to contend for the Championship--unless, of course, you're winning races, but Reddick only has one non-road course victory in his Cup Series career.
How Round One Shapes Up: There is potential for Tyler Reddick to do well over the next three Playoffs races, but it's nowhere near a guarantee. He has shown that he can run top five at Darlington, and the 23XI Toyotas should have at least top-10 speed at Kansas. Unless Reddick can pull out a win at one of these first two tracks, his Round Two survival is likely going to come down to Bristol--a track where he has one finish better than 12th-place in four career attempts.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: 50/50. It's all going to come down to whether this driver and/or team make any mistakes. With only a two-point advantage over the cut line to start out this round of the Playoffs, Tyler Reddick and the No. 45 team have no room for error during the next three races.
Joey Logano's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Penske Racing has been inconsistent at best when it comes to speed this season, and have lacked speed at tracks where they shouldn't be behind. Joey Logano has been a bit of an enigma this year, but his qualifying prowess (10.7 average starting position, 2nd-best in the series), should be good for him in the Playoffs. During the regular season, Logano quietly eight top-five finishes and 13 top-10 results, but his average finish of 15.2 showed his inconsistency capability.
How Round One Shapes Up: At Darlington, Logano has one win and has finished inside the top 5 in nearly one-third of his starts (6-for-19). At Kansas, Logano came away with a 6th-place finish earlier this season, but his No. 22 Ford was probably more of a 10th-to-12th-place car. At Bristol, Joey is a two-time winner but hasn't had a top-10 finish since the 2019 season.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Above average. The defending series Champion has just eight points locked in to start out this first round of the Playoffs, but Logano is a veteran and can put his nose down and grind out good finishes over these next three events. There's some concern here when it comes to Penske Racing speed, but Logano has an above average chance to advance.
Ryan Blaney's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Again, Penske Racing has been down on speed this season, and that's why Ryan Blaney only has eight points to start this round of the Playoffs with. He got that dominating win at Charlotte, but the No. 12 Ford ranked just 13th-fastest in Green Flag Speed during the regular season. Blaney also had just four top-five finishes during the regular season, which was tied for the 3rd-worst among the 16 Playoff drivers.
How Round One Shapes Up: Actually, not as great as you might think. Ryan Blaney has never had a top-five finish at Darlington in 13 career starts, and his last top-five finish at Kansas came back during the 2017 season. At Bristol, Blaney has shown race-winning speed there during his career, but he tends to find trouble more often than not at that track.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Slightly above average. Nothing points to these Penske Fords having a ton of speed this season, and these three race tracks are middle-of-the-road at best for Ryan Blaney. While it's certainly possible that he comfortably makes it into the Round of 12, it wouldn't entirely be surprising to see the No. 12 team get eliminated from Championship contention early this year.
Michael McDowell's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Thanks to a win at the Indy Road Course, Michael McDowell is in the Playoffs this year, but you can't really call this No. 34 team a true contender. That win is McDowell's only top-10 finish over the last seven races, and during the 26-race regular season, nearly half of those (12 races in all) ended with the No. 34 Ford outside of the top 20 entirely.
How Round One Shapes Up: This is a tough round of races for Michael McDowell. Historically, Darlington hasn't been a great track for him, although it's worth noting that McDowell had top-10 finishes in both races there last season. Still, the No. 34 Ford has been a mid-20s car at intermediate tracks like Kansas this year, and a good day for McDowell at Bristol is a 10th-place result.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Low. For Michael McDowell to advance in this year's Playoffs, he's going to have to rely on several other drivers having two (or even three) very bad races in this first round. That's not very likely, and not a good spot for the No. 34 team to be in.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Consolidating down to just one car at JTG Daugherty Racing has allowed that organization to catch up a little bit with the field on speed, and has turned into a career-best season for Ricky Stenhouse Jr thus far. His average finish of 16.7 during the regular season this year is his best-ever average result, and ranked 14th-best out of the 16 Playoff drivers this year.
How Round One Shapes Up: Bristol has been a decently good track for Stenhouse in the past, but Darlington and Kansas are iffy. In 18 career starts at Bristol, Ricky has posted top-10 finishes in six of them (33.3%). However, over a combined 36 Cup Series starts at Darlington and Kansas, Stenhouse has just two top-10 finishes to his credit. He did rank inside the top 10 in Total Speed Ranking at Darlington earlier this year, though, and Stenhouse has shown top-10 speed at other intermediate tracks like Kansas this season.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Better than you probably think, but not great. It's going to take some attrition for Stenhouse to sneak his way into the Round of 12, and for him to simultaneously avoid any major problems. If he's going to advance to the next round, it'll likely be on points, and it'll be extremely close. He needs luck.
Kevin Harvick's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Kevin Harvick is the lone bright spot at Stewart-Haas Racing, and that is really a testament to how good of a driver he is. During the regular season, the No. 4 Ford ranked 10th-best in both Green Flag Speed and Average Running Position, with the only other Stewart-Haas driver able to rank inside the top 20 in either of those being Aric Almirola (18th-best in ARP).
How Round One Shapes Up: Darlington is a great track for Kevin Harvick, as he had one of the best cars on the long run earlier this year and ended up with a 2nd-place finish. At intermediate tracks such as Kansas this season, Harvick has been a fringe top-10 finisher, and he had top-five speed at Bristol last season.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: Above average. Harvick's biggest hurdle this year has been his qualifying efforts, which hurts his chances at getting Stage points during the race. And with Harvick only starting with four points from the regular season, he's going to need good points days in each of the next three races with no mistakes or wrecks.
Bubba Wallace's Round One Outlook
Current Form: Bubba Wallace got into the Playoffs via points, and with no race victories nor Stage wins this year, that means that he starts out with zero points in this round of the postseason. Bubba has had top-five speed at some race tracks this season, but it definitely isn't consistent. In the 12 races leading up to the Playoffs, he has just one top-1o finish and zero top-fives.
How Round One Shapes Up: Round One actually shapes up quite well for Bubba Wallace. He had solid top-10 speed at Darlington earlier this year and ended up finishing in 5th-place, and at Kansas, he's a previous winner plus he finished in 4th earlier this year. Like many others, Bristol is Bubba's weak spot in this first round, as he's never finished better than 10th there.
Chances of Advancing To Round Two: 50/50. Bubba Wallace and his team cannot afford to make a single mistake in this first round of the Playoffs if they want to advance to the Round of 12. If Bubba struggles out of the gate at Darlington, he may have to win at Kansas again to have a real shot at the second round.
Jordan's Round of 16 Elimination Predictions
Looking at the points standings heading into the first round of the Playoffs, these points are so tight that one minor slip-up by any of these drivers could make for some very entertaining battles to make it into the next round--which is kind of crazy considering a couple of heavy hitters (Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman) didn't make it to the postseason.
We could definitely see some surprising names get eliminated from contention in this first round, and with the cutoff racing being 500 laps around Bristol Motor Speedway, it'll likely come down to which drivers simply survive that race. You could make a decent argument how about six to eight of these 16 drivers could possibly get eliminated in Round One.
Jordan's first four out: Ross Chastain, Ryan Blaney, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, and Michael McDowell.
