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Welcome back to another edition of my MLB player prop picks! While I pride myself on my strikeout projections and picks, I will be the first to admit that I whiffed last night on all three of my favorite picks, and getting these right on a nightly basis has become much more of a challenge in the second half of the season. Not only have the books become sharper with their lines, but we are having to pick the best pitchers at really high numbers every night or go after unknown rookies at low numbers. I remain undaunted and will continue plugging away for the rest of the season and surely we can find some value somewhere on this massive 15-game slate tonight, right?
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, August 22, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Zack Littell OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings)
Littell has transitioned from the bullpen to the starting rotation for Tampa Bay quite nicely, allowing three earned runs or less in each of his four starts while walking just one batter and striking out 15. He has two 5-strikeout games now in a row and today gets a Colorado team that sports a 27.1 K% vs. RHP over the last month.
This Rockies' lineup has a bunch of alarming K-rates up and down the order. Don't believe me? Check this out!
Littell might not be a big-time strikeout pitcher, but his elite control means he's going to hopefully continue to be efficient with his pitches and allow him to pitch into the sixth inning. We are eating some juice here at -150, but I like the soft 4.5 number here and Littell's chances of getting five whiffs against this K-prone Colorado lineup.
Lucas Giolito OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-155 DraftKings)
We go from one pitcher against a high-K team to another as Gio takes on a very K-prone Reds squad at home. The Reds are whiffing at a high rate lately as they have a 27.7% K% over the last month, however, this is obviously a dangerous run-prevention spot for Gio as the Reds have a bunch of good young hitters and plenty of power in this lineup.
Lucas Giolito, Elevated 82mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/DsKo8yHALF
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 16, 2023
We need seven strikeouts to win and I have Gio projected to get there. The lack of other options on the board is forcing my hand here a bit. Gio has hit for us in good matchups before, we just need him to have good control today and to avoid some big innings against this young Reds lineup.
Carlos Rodon UNDER 5.5 strikeouts (-105 DraftKings)
I have been accused of not taking enough unders, and perhaps that's true. But I do bet them when I think I have an angle and this number for Rodon really puzzles me. Listen, I know he is a talented pitcher and was dominant the last several seasons, but this year he has been anything but that for New York.
He's coming off yet another injury that forced him to skip a start and he's yet to pitch a full six innings in any of his six starts this season. His walk rate is way up and his strikeout rate (20.5%) is way down from what we usually expect from him.
The Nats are one of the peskiest offenses in all of baseball. I try not to bet against them with pitchers and was reminded why I don't often bet against them on the moneyline either the other night when they beat Zack Wheeler and the Phillies as big underdogs. They have the best strikeout rate (only 16.8%) against LHP over the last month and have been a tough group to whiff all season long. With Rodon's lack of innings, diminished ability, and the tough matchup, I am going with the under here - he's gone over 5.5 just once this season (against Colorado back in July).
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Ryan Mountcastle OVER 1.5 total bases (+100 DraftKings)
I am not someone who touts BvP often, but Mounty's history against Kikuchi is worth mentioning here. He's 7-12 against Kikuchi in his career with four home runs, four walks, and just two strikeouts. That shows me that he's quite familiar with Kikuchi's arsenal and making pretty darn good contact when he gets a pitch he can hit.
Mounty has elite stats against lefties this season, too, with a .466 wOBA and .366 ISO. It certainly doesn't hurt that he's swinging the bat well lately, either, with an 8-game hit streak intact and two home runs in his last four.
Spencer Torkelson OVER 1.5 hits + runs +RBI (-120 DraftKings)
Spencer's total base prop is certainly in play here at +110 as well, but I like to mix things up a bit and vary my bets on a nightly basis. Torkelson has been on a tear lately, slugging six home runs in his last nine games. He's been held hitless just twice in that span and has been scoring and driving in runs with regularity.
He's now hitting in the two-hole, so he has both the opportunity to drive in runs from that spot and score runs with the lineup behind him picking up steam over the last few weeks. I know some guys shy away from hot hitters, but Torkelson has been making elite contact right now and is facing a pretty mediocre lefty today in Drew Smyly. I am going to ride the hot hand.
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