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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 8/7/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, August 7, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 51-39-3 (+1.90 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Twins @ Tigers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: DET +140
MIN: Pablo Lopez | DET: Joey Wentz
I'll start things off back in Detroit, where we cashed on the Rays' first five-inning run line. We'll go back to the first five innings here as the Twins come into town.
The Twins will send Pablo Lopez (6-6, 4.01 ERA) to the mound. Lopez is a candidate for some massive positive regression, and we'll hope we see some of that today. He brings in a 3.22 xERA and 3.42 xFIP, per FanGraphs. He takes on a Tigers lineup that's notoriously poor against right-handers. They project to a .289 weighted wOBA against Lopez today, who projects to a 3.41 SIERA.
It'll be Joey Wentz (2-9, 6.37 ERA) taking the ball for the Tigers today. Wentz is also due for some pretty strong positive regression here as well, with a surprising 3.65 projected SIERA according to my model. That's quite the dip below his season-long expected stats (5.53 xERA, 4.84 xFIP), but he'll take on a Twins lineup that likes to see his pitch mix. They project to a .348 wOBA against his pitch types, which could make it a long day for him on the mound.
We'll back the Twins in the first-five innings here, as the Tigers' bullpen projects pretty well against this Twins lineup. We can get that at -172 on FanDuel. I think the juice is worth the squeeze here, so I'll throw a unit and a half on it. I'd like for the Twins to have my back here after scoring three in the ninth yesterday to kill our 2-0 sweep.
Pick: Twins F5 Moneyline (-172), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.5 units to win 0.87 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Braves @ Pirates
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: PIT +215
ATL: Spencer Strider | PIT: Osvaldo Bido
I'll head out to Pittsburgh for my second play of the day as the Braves come into town for the beginning of the week.
Spencer Strider (12-3, 3.61 ERA) will take the mound for the Braves this evening. He's been more than good this season and comes into this start third in terms of NL Cy Young odds. He'll look to positively regress his way there, as he brings in a 3.10 xERA and 2.69 xFIP into this one. He also projects to a 2.49 SIERA and a whopping 40.29% strikeout rate against a Pirates lineup that projects to a measly .296 wOBA against him.
The Pirates will send Osvaldo Bido (2-2, 5.18 ERA) to the mound for just the eighth start of his career. Bido, like every other pitcher previously mentioned in this article, is also due for positive regression. It doesn't look like it will be much help against this buzzsaw Braves offense. He brings in a 4.68 xERA, 4.94 xFIP, and a projected 4.58 SIERA. The aforementioned buzzsaw of a Braves lineup projects to a .375 wOBA against him today.
More juice here, but this time just a unit as we grab the Braves' run line at -146 on FanDuel.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (-146), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.64 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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