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Kyle Ringstad's MLB DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests for Friday, May 19th, 2023. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his MLB DFS prop picks to win money.
Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user chooses the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet.
FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
Zac Gallen vs. Sandy Alcantara
We have a matchup between last year's Cy Young winner and the frontrunner for this season's award. You can find most of my reasoning for backing Gallen over Alcantara below, but essentially, Gallen is the call here due to his season-long form and the fact that he has a much easier matchup tonight. Gallen faces the fallen-back-to-earth Pirates, Alcantara faces the always-sneaky-good Giants, and Gallen has been the much better pitcher this year.
Byron Buxton vs. Corbin Carroll
Buxton gets a great matchup against a struggling Reid Detmers (4.89 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 44.9% hard-hit rate) tonight, and I think he pops off for another big game and outscores Carroll in the process. Both players are coming off strong series performances against the Dodgers and Athletics, respectively, but Buxton has the edge here.
Zac Gallen vs. Kikuchi/Gonsolin (any other pitcher on this slate)
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Zac Gallen (OVER), Sandy Alcantara (UNDER), Reid Detmers (UNDER)
Gallen is firmly in the running for NL Cy Young, and a date with the Pirates should only help him further his case for the coveted award. He needs to go over 23.05 FPTS tonight, and since he averages 25.89 FPTS per game, we need an average performance out of him. The Pirates are a bottom-ten team hitting against right-handed pitching, and they're only projected to score 3.4 runs.
Speaking of Cy Young awards, last year's winner has not fared well this season. Alcantara holds an ugly 4.91 ERA (4.32 xERA) and a so-so 22.9% K% to go along with middling advanced metrics. He is averaging just 15.86 FPTS per game, and I don't see him going over 20.41 FPTS today against a solid Giants offense.
Detmers has been a letdown this season relative to expectations. The former first-round pick is 0-3 with a 4.89 ERA (4.20 xERA), and he's allowing a high 44.9% hard-hit rate. He's averaging just 12.74 FPTS per game, so it's difficult to imagine him going over 17.89 FPTS in a tricky matchup against the Twins tonight.
Yordan Alvarez (OVER), Randy Arozarena (OVER), Harrison Bader (UNDER)
Alvarez has exceeded the 8.92 FPTS he needs on RIVAL in five of his last seven games. He's on fire, and opposing starter Ken Waldichuk has been extremely exploitable this season. The lefty holds a cringeworthy 7.02 ERA (6.05 xERA) with 12 homers allowed through eight starts.
The Rays don't know who their starter is, but the Brewers will start Adrian Houser on the mound today. Houser holds a 5.19 ERA through two starts this season - he's a middling pitcher who can undoubtedly be taken advantage of. Arozarena has a .932 OPS with two homers, eight RBI, eight runs scored, and ten walks in May.
Bader's over/under is at 8.56 FPTS, which feels too high. He has exceeded that number just once over his past eight games - he's not in enough of a groove for me to want to back the over in this spot.
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