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It was a wild Friday night with the Mets scoring 17 runs, the Rays finally losing for the first time this season, and a number of upsets across the league. But it feels like that happens just about every night, though, doesn't it? I am always hunting for value and looking for some underdogs who are worthy of a shot as well as some favorites who are the least likely to let down.
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I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Saturday, April 15, 2023. These bets can range from money line bets, run line bets, game totals, team totals, "first five" bets, or NRFI (no run first inning) bets. Let's break down a few of the games on today's slate that are worth wagering on!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tampa Bay @ Toronto
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: TOR -120
TBR: Calvin Faucher + Josh Fleming | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi
We are leading off with a total here and the game that pops the most in my model. Despite losing last night, Tampa still boasts the best offense (on paper) in the major leagues. These teams combined for 9 runs despite two pretty solid pitchers taking the hill last night in Drew Rasmussen and Jose Berrios. Today we get arguably both teams' worst starters as Toronto is throwing out lefty Yusei "I love to give up home runs" Kikuchi and Tampa is doing that annoying thing where they start a reliever and then bring in a crappy middle reliever in the second or third inning.
Tampa did this with Ryan Yarbrough for several seasons and now they like to do it with Josh Fleming. Yarbrough was actually a pretty decent pitcher, but Fleming is nothing special.
Kikuchi is taking on a Tampa offense that has been murdering LHP this year to the tune of a .396 wOBA, .268 ISO, and league-leading 161 wRC+. Wander Franco and company have been destroying baseballs for two straight weeks...like this one.
Wander Franco swats out No. 3 on the year! pic.twitter.com/noPfK1lRsx
— MLB (@MLB) April 8, 2023
And we know how potent this Jays offense is, too, as they have arguably the toughest 1-2-3 combo in the game with Springer-Bichette-Guerrero Jr.
I won't predict a winner here, but we all win if these offenses can just tee off on some subpar pitching. I'm okay with a little juice at -120 and I wouldn't be surprised if this line gets moved to 10 runs by this afternoon.
Pick: OVER 9.5 runs (-115) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1.15 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Milwaukee @ San Diego
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: SDP -125
MIL: Freddy Peralta | SDP: Seth Lugo
Did I mention I was hunting for some underdogs? I like the Twins on the road against the Yankees a bit, but I LOVE the Brew crew out in San Diego at plus odds!
Nothing against Seth Lugo, he's looked really solid as a starter for the Padres, but the pitching advantage here swings to the Brewers who have their co-ace Peralta on the bump. Freddy has looked good through two starts against two tough opponents (Mets + Cardinals), allowing just one run over twelve frames while striking out fourteen. The walks are a bit concerning (6) but that often comes with the territory for Freddy.
The Brewers' bats are hot, too, as they are now averaging over five runs per game this season. They poured it on last night with 11 runs against Michael Wacha (who I had touted - womp, womp) and the Pads' bullpen. Lugo danced around four walks and five hits last time out against Atlanta, but I think we see regression hit here tonight and remind us that he's a backend starter and converted reliever - he's most likely pitching over his head.
Give me the Brewers on the money line for some excellent value in this one.
Pick: Brewers ML (+105) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 1.05 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, - let's make that money! And have a great weekend while you're at it!
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