RADIO
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Richmond on Sunday for the Toyota Owners 400. With qualifying rained out, Alex Bowman is on the pole for this week's race, with Kyle Busch joining him on the front row.
Last week, Tyler Reddick survived late-race restart after late-race restart to win his first race of the year, and his first for 23XI Racing. Reddick led 41 laps in the victory.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the Richmond Toyota Owners 400 on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 4/2/23 at 3:44 p.m. ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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Christopher Bell
Starts 21st - DK: $10,300, FD: $11,500
This is one of Bell's best tracks, and as long as cars are actually able to pass each other on Sunday, he should be a top play, as he fires off 21st, which gives him some nice place differential upside.
Bell's average finish here in five Cup Series starts is 6.0, his best average finish at any track, and the only time he finished outside the top 10 was in 2020 when he was driving for Leavine Family Racing. His worst finish in a JGR car here is sixth, and he led 63 laps in that race.
Also of note: he started 21st here last year, and made it all the way up to second by the end of the race. Bell's going to win at Richmond at some point; could it be today?
Denny Hamlin
Starts 11th - DK: $10,100, FD: $12,500
If we'd had qualifying, I think four-time Richmond winner Denny Hamlin would be starting higher than 11th. He was one of the top drivers here last season in this Next Gen car, winning the spring race and finishing fourth in the fall.
Overall, Hamlin's had a top five finish in 10 of his last 12 starts here. He's done it when starting from the pole. He's done it when starting as low as 30th. I don't think an 11th-place starting spot is going to stop him from contending today, and it also adds in a little room for place differential points.
Daniel Suarez
Starts 20th - DK: $8,100, FD: $7,200
Suarez opened the season with three top 10s in a row. He's followed that up with three finishes in a row outside the top 20, but that's also a little misleading, as he was contending for a top five at COTA last week before he was wrecked late, which led to some tempers:
This hasn't been Suarez's best track, but it also hasn't been terrible for him. He's just 3-for-11 at getting a top 10 at Richmond, but his average finish here is 15.5, and his only finish outside the top 20 came in 2020 when he was running for an off-the-pace Gaunt Brothers team.
I fully expect Suarez to contend for a spot in the lower half of the top 10 on Sunday.
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Josh Berry
Starts 30th - DK: $7,900, FD: $7,800
Berry's time in this 9 car has been pretty uneven. In three starts, he has finishes of 29th, 10th and 18th. He definitely isn't putting up Chase Elliott numbers, but he's improved since that Vegas start. With Berry starting 30th, there are 15-20 place differential spots available for him if he keeps the car clean.
He's also run well here in Xfinity. On Saturday, Berry led 63 of the 250 laps, finishing third. I know the cars are very different and that we saw at Vegas that Berry being good at a track in Xfinity doesn't necessarily translate to Cup, but with Berry set to make his fourth Cup start of the season, I think he's better-positioned for a good run at this track than he was at Vegas.
Bubba Wallace
Starts 28th - DK: $7,500, FD: $6,800
Love the place differential upside for Bubba Wallace on Sunday, though there are definitely some worrying signs. It's been a tough season for him so far with two DNFs plus a 27th at Atlanta, but Wallace ran a solid 13th the last time the Cup Series was here, his second-best finish at Richmond.
Overall, the track history for Wallace here isn't great, as his average finish is 23.8. But I feel like we need to factor in that all but four of those races were for Richard Petty Motorsports, which didn't have a ton of speed those years.
Not that his 23XI starts have been much better...but still, this is a car with some good speed, and Wallace rolls off 28th, so there's some upside. I also think part of why I'm high on Wallace is that I don't expect a lot of other people to be—I think we see people in this price range go with Aric Almirola or Austin Dillon, and I think that leaves some room for Wallace to give us a slight edge.
Chandler Smith
Starts 37th - DK: $6,100, FD: $4,800
Look, I'm not just playing Smith because he won yesterday in the Xfinity race, but I'm also not saying that isn't part of the equation here. If he started 15th, I'd fade him, but having yesterday's winner start 37th on Sunday offers too much place differential upside for me to ignore.
Yes, I know Kaulig isn't as strong in Cup as it is in Xfinity. And yes, I know Smith doesn't have a ton of Cup experience to lean on, and that these cars are hard to learn. And as I already said, if he started closer to the front, that would matter to me.
But with qualifying rained out, Smith's behind some cars that he should be faster than. I'm not expecting great things, but I am anticipating a solid race from this 13 car.
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