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Brandon Wampler's top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for March 21st, 2023 including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays and stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for Tennis and Soccer respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season which means it's time to sharpen our MLB skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel Tuesday, 21st, 2023 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/21/23
The trade market has officially come and gone and teams are gearing up for a tough stretch of very meaningful games and playoffs in hopes of a date with Lord Stanley. Tonight we have an 11-game slate with four teams playing on a back-to-back: Florida, Detroit, Ottawa and Calgary. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Boston with 4.2, Washington with 4.1 and Winnipeg with 4.1. I will do my best in guiding you through this eleven-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the news feed and play at your own risk
Goalies
Joel Hofer- DK $7.5K || FD $6.5K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
It is unknown who the starter will be in net tonight for the Blues with Jordan Binnington back from his suspension, however, we will assume Hofer will start a third straight game due to his superb form. In his two starts taking over for Binnington, Hofer has 2 wins and 1 shutout. To put things in perspective, Binnington has 1 shutout in 52 appearances this year, while Hofer has 1 shutout in 2 appearances. The Red Wings will be traveling to Enterprise Center after losing in Florida 5-2 last night to the Panthers. In Detroit’s last five away games, they have scored a slate-low 7 goals. Binnington could be worth a shot if he does start, but if Hofer is in net, he is one of the best options at a value cost.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Vasilevskiy (DK $8.4K || FD $8.5K), Lindgren (DK $8.2K || FD $7.2K)
Centers
Dylan Strome-DK $4.8K || FD $5.9K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
Despite the Capitals losing 5-3 to the Minnesota Wild on Sunday, Strome accounted for 2 of the 3 goals the Capitals scored. Unsurprisingly, he saw instant success after being elevated back to the top line with Ovechkin. The Capitals have been throwing lines together like darts at a dartboard over the past month and this line seems to be the only one that generates consistent success. In Strome’s last five appearances, he has 2 goals, 5 assists, 8 shots and 3 blocked shots. Over the season, the Blue Jackets are the second-worst in Shots Against Per 60 – 34.36 –, they are the fifth-worst in Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 31.7 –, the sixth-worst in High Danger Chances Against Per 60 – 12.94 – and the second-worst in Goals Against Per 60 – 3.24 –. As long as Strome is under $5K salary on DraftKings, prime matchups like this make him a steal.
Elias Lindholm- DK $5K || FD $6.1K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
Last night the Flames got doused quickly after picking up form in their previous handful of games. The Flames were outworked early and they never managed to pull back in an 8-2 loss in Los Angeles. In that game, Lindholm managed 1 assist, 1 shot and 1 blocked shot, producing where he could. Throughout his last five games, he has 2 goals, 5 assists, 15 shots and 3 blocked shots. The new lines seem to be benefitting multiple players with Lindholm one of the most impacted on the roster – 1 goal and 1 assist in his 8 previous matches –. The Ducks remain the worst defense in the league in all meaningful statistics, Shots Against Per 60 – 38.09 –, Scoring Chances Against Per 60 – 34.76 –, High Danger Chances Against Per 60 – 16.14 – and Goals Against Per 60 – 3.34 –. Furthermore, in their last five home games, they have been outscored 18 to 19 and expected starter John Gibson has conceded 18 goals in his previous five games. Despite Calgary playing last night, they should have plenty to play for in a high-paced and high-event matchup after being embarrassed last night.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Scheifele (DK $6.2K || FD $6.9K), Hayes (DK $5.1K || FD $6.1K)
Wings
Ross Colton- DK $3.5K || FD $4K
Opponent - Montreal Canadiens
Teammate Alex Killorn has started to climb in salary and his last time against the Canadiens when we highlighted him, he laid a dud. Tonight we will focus on another winger in Tampa, Ross Colton. Colton and the third line have the best possible chance tonight to produce against Montreal. The Canadiens’ third line currently gives up the most Scoring Chances and High Danger Chances Per 60, providing plenty of opportunity. Colton’s last five games of production are not the most ideal with 1 goal, 10 shots and 4 blocked shots, however, for third line minutes, that is decent production. Furthermore, he will have a great matchup tonight at a low cost, making him an excellent ‘punt’ play.
Alex Ovechkin- DK $8.4K || FD $8.5K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
It should come as no surprise that Ovechkin made the article today. In his last five games, he has 3 goals, 4 assists, 23 shots and 2 blocked shots, averaging just shy of the Shot Bonus on DraftKings – 3 or more shots in a game –. Aforementioned, the Jackets are not a good defensive team and expected starter Daniil Tarasov is not helping their case. With this close to the end of the season, it would be surprising to see Columbus give a serious effort moving forward – #TankforBedard –. With other wings like David Pastrnak of the Boston Bruins or Matthew Tkachuk of the Florida Panthers with higher salaries, this makes Ovechkin quite the value play, even if you have to pay up for him.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Pastrnak (DK $9.4K || FD $10.2K), Vrana (DK $4.9K || FD $5.6K)
Defense
Jordan Gross- DK $2.8K || FD $3.5K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres are the furthest thing from a stronghold right now, conceding 25 goals in their last five home games and expected starter Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has conceded 21 goals in his last five games. Predators defenseman Roman Josi missed the 7-0 loss to the Rangers over the weekend with an undisclosed injury. Jordan Gross was called up from the AHL to replace him. Gross had 1 shot and 2 blocked shots in the loss while manning the second pair and co-quarterbacking the top power-play. Prior to Gross being sent down before Christmas, in five games, he had 1 goal, 11 shots and 3 blocked shots. Through 45 appearances in the AHL this season, Gross has 8 goals, 23 assists and 122 shots. He is not a shy defenseman and in a matchup that should see plenty of chances, expect Gross to be at the center of it.
Rasmus Sandin- DK $4.5K || FD $4.7K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
This should be one of the easiest decisions to make tonight. In the last five away games, Columbus has conceded 28 goals and expected starter Daniil Tarasov has given up 20 goals in his last five games. Sandin remains on the top power-play with Ovechkin, despite them lacking chances as of late. However, in Sandin’s last five appearances, he has 6 assists, 8 shots and 5 blocked shots. For under $5K on DraftKings, Sandin is easily one of the top value plays on the slate in any position tonight.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Sergachev (DK 5.7K || FD $6.4K), Andersson (DK 5.5K || FD $6.2K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- BOS1
- TB1
- WAS1
- WPG1
- CGY1
- STL1
Brandon's Stack of the Day
- WAS: Ovechkin-Strome-Sandin
Chalk Stack
- BOS: Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak
Sneaky Stack
- TB: Paul-Stamkos-Colton
