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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Las Vega Motor Speedway on Sunday to close out a tripleheader weekend in Sin City. Kyle Busch won Friday's Truck Series race, but wasn't able to get the second leg of the weekend series, finishing fourth in the Xfinity Series race on Saturday.
The big headline this week is that Chase Elliott was injured in a snowboarding accident this week and had to have surgery on a fractured tibia. He's out for this week's race and is expected to miss more time going forward. Josh Berry climbs into the 9 car this weekend in Elliott's place.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the Pennzoil 400 on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 3/5/23 at 3:47 p.m. ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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Kyle Busch
Starts 5th - DK: $10,900, FD: $14,000
I really debated Kyle Busch vs. Kyle Larson here, and I think Larson's probably the smarter play, but sometimes you want to avoid going with the obvious play.
I'm not totally convinced Richard Childress Racing is about to have a 2023 that resembles Trackhouse's 2022, but it is obvious that the team's made some strides this season now that they've got Kyle Busch in that 8 car. Busch won last week at Auto Club, leading 21 laps in the process and came back from a Lap 43 pit road speeding penalty. Seeing Busch win so fast with his new team was good to see; seeing Busch win while having to drive through the field twice, essentially, was impressive.
Busch won the Truck Series race at Vegas on Friday, and in Cup he's had four consecutive finishes of fourth or better here, including a fourth-place finish in this race last year after leading 49 laps. And last time Cup was here in October, both RCR cars had top 10s. At some point, Busch will probably hit a rough patch with his new team, but I don't think it's today.
William Byron
Starts 2nd - DK: $9,100, FD: $9,500
Last time we were here, Tyler Reddick and Austin Cindric started on the front row. They combined to lead the first 40 laps of the race. Both faded after that, but they showed that track position matters here. And if we go back to March, we see Christopher Bell led the first 32 laps after starting on the front row.
So, that's part of why I want to play Byron this weekend. He's well-positioned to get the lead early, as he starts on the front row with Joey Logano. He was fifth and 13th here last season. (Logano won the fall race here last season—I'm not saying to fade Logano or anything like that, and he has as good or better of a shot to lead laps early than Byron, but I think this is a nice little pivot. Lot of people are going to think Logano can dominate here, which he can, but I also think that leads to some overexposure for him.)
Tyler Reddick
Starts 34th - DK: $8,800, FD: $9,000
At some point, Tyler Reddick's move to 23XI is going to work out, right? While his former team drove to victory lane last week, Reddick crashed out for the second week in a row. He now has finishes of 39th and 35th through his first two starts with the team.
But with Reddick starting 34th on Sunday, the place differential upside is just too great to ignore, especially when factoring in track record at Vegas, as Reddick has three straight top 10s here, plus led 32 laps when the Cup Series was here during last year's playoffs. Assuming his bad crash luck doesn't continue, Reddick should be in line to gain 25-plus spots on Sunday.
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Josh Berry
Starts 32nd - DK: $8,000, FD: N/A
Berry hasn't been added to the FanDuel driver pool, but you can get him in DraftKings, and while I wish he was priced a little cheaper since he's jumping into a car that isn't his this weekend, the place differential upside for Berry this week makes him a strong play even with those concerns.
I don't know how much Berry's past here matters since it was all in Xfinity, but let's talk about it anyway. In five Xfinity starts at this track, Berry has two wins and a worst finish of seventh. He was fifth in yesterday's race, leading two laps despite having to start from the back after moving to a backup car. I don't think he challenges for a win or anything like that, but Berry could fight for his first Cup Series top 10 on Sunday.
Daniel Suarez
Starts 24th - DK: $7,600, FD: $7,500
Trackhouse is coming off a good week, with both cars placing in the top five at Auto Club. Suarez now has two top 10s to open the season and sits fifth in points.
The former Xfinity Series champion hasn't run particularly well at Vegas during his Cup career. Or...well, he hasn't finished well, at least, posting an average finish of 22.2 with just one top 10 despite the fact he's led double-digit laps here four times. Suarez has gotten out front at Vegas, but he can't seal the deal with a good result. Can that luck change Sunday?
Harrison Burton
Starts 35th - DK: $5,600, FD: $3,000
There are a few of these super cheap place differential plays you can go with. Ty Dillon starts 33rd. Todd Gilliland starts 28th. But Harrison Burton is my favorite of them.
Burton was 16th in this race last year, and his average running position in both of his Vegas starts is 22nd. He's not someone who'll be challenging for a top 10, but he doesn't have to when he starts 35th—a 20th would be +15 in place differential. Also of note: Burton's made four Xfinity starts here with four top 10 results. This is a solid track for Burton.
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