DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Honda Classic Golf Advice (2023)

February 22, 2023

Spencer's DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for The Honda Classic. His PGA DFS targets and value plays for daily fantasy golf lineups, and golfers to avoid.

Make it five wins in nine worldwide starts for Jon Rahm. The Spaniard has been known for these consistent productions over the years when we look at his ability to string together multiple high-end results for extended periods of time. However, this current stretch might be the most impressive since it has come during the PGA Tour's newly revamped schedule. That fact alone has presented the world's best an opportunity to dethrone him weekly in these elevated contests, and the quality we have received can't be understated when you realize these fields are more robust than they have ever been in the history of the tour.

Let's see if the run can continue throughout the vital stretch of the Players Championship and Masters coming up over the next two months. If it does, Rahm won't only add to his massive 10 million dollar total in earnings this season that has generated an enormous collection of 12% of the total funds up for grabs during anything he has entered, but it would also catapult him up golf's lore.

Any player that stayed on the PGA Tour did it to rewrite the history books in their favor over any amount of money, and I'd have to imagine Rahm wouldn't trade this success in for any dollar amount in the world. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week, and if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Honda Classic

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Honda Classic Link

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (234-174-23) 57.35%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (434-301-59) 59.05%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 36
• Units: +311.229 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2023
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here you will find updated stats for the particular tournament – all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (200-127-36) 61.16%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
• Click here to see an example

Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

• Join the community! There you will be able to talk to fellow subscribers and have real-time weekly chats with me.

TeeOffSports membership

• $149.99 per year - Sign up today for all the tools I provide!
• You can also try things out for $9.99 per week.

Field

Field Size: 144 Players
Cut: Top 65 and Ties
Top 25 Entrants: 3

Last Five Winners Of Riviera

Expected Cut-Line

PGA National

7,140 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda

The one thing that must be noted about PGA National (and any course inside the Florida swing yearly) is that water will be the undoing for many golfers in the field. It only takes a few poor shots to find yourself outside the cutline when things begin to spiral -- evidenced by 15 holes presenting a combination of 26 sinkable hazards.

A factor like that is exceptionally notable when comparing courses since an errant attempt at the Genesis Invitational still created the ability to scramble out of the rough to salvage your score. However, all that goes out the window at the Honda Classic because a wandering drive or approach will provide the dreaded water-bound answer on the new and hard-to-follow PGA App. As we all know by now, a one-shot penalty can quickly balloon your total, and it only becomes amplified when traps are everywhere at the property.

While the 'Bear Trap' holes of 15, 16, and 17 will garner most of the headlines for the difficulty they present, holes five, six, and seven are almost equally as challenging for the field. The amplified hazards and 107 sand traps are put into place throughout the forum to cause havoc, and golfers can begin to feel trapped by the unforgiving landmines that pop up at all turns.

Wind will be the primary decider for just how challenging the test will be for the players this week, although there is a steady reason why PGA National has finished inside the top 10 tracks in terms of difficulty in 13 of the past 16 seasons. The ability to control your mid-irons in blustery conditions will be needed to succeed at this brutally challenging Florida course. And water is always the great equalizer because you can't account for the harsh nature of the penalty. We will do our best to find golfers who can salvage a score when things begin to go in the wrong direction in the section below, but Florida golf can be a minefield with every shot.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

• Strokes Gained Total - Fast Bermuda (25%)
• 

• Strokes Gained Total Wind (7.5%)
• 

• Strokes Gained Total - Hard Courses That Are Par 72s (12.5%)
• 

• Weighted Scoring (20%)
• 

• Sand Save Percentage (7.5%)
• 

• Overall Bogey Avoidance (7.5%)
  
• 

• OTT + APP (20%)
• 

Total Number Of Top 10's Out Of The Seven Categories:

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are two players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.

Early thoughts on the group: There isn't a way that I can run my model where Sungjae Im and Shane Lowry don't grade first and second. If directly comparing, I prefer Im over Lowry since I believe there is an edge for only $300 more, although both should be considered.

Sungjae Im ($10,700) - There is an argument to be made that Sungjae Im should have received full-out Jon Rahm treatment and gotten into the mid $11,000 range since he is clearly the most talented golfer in the field. The argument against that would stem from water being the great equalizer for potential chaos, but Im's high-end potential in all model iterations will be tough to beat over four days.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

Early thoughts on the group: The wildcard shot of the group is Min Woo Lee. I don't have enough data to stick solely to my numbers. I'll reevaluate if markets with better information than I do on other tours begin to like him in head-to-head matchups.

Alex Noren ($9,500) - Some start of Sungjae Im, Alex Noren, and Aaron Wise feels like an ideal way to begin lineups this weekend at PGA National. The Swede has sloppily missed back-to-back cuts, which might alleviate some of the expected ownership, but the profile is clean in every other regard when running my numbers. Noren's second-place grade for strokes gained total on fast Bermuda helps to show why he has presented two top-five finishes at the venue in his past four attempts. I'd ignore the current form that just as easily could have resulted in better finishes if it weren't for a shot or two.

Aaron Wise ($9,200) - I have been penciling in an Aaron Wise victory during the Florida swing for the past few months, so why would I stop with that stance when I get my first opportunity to play him? You could argue that this setup isn't perfect because of his lower-than-average returns for good drive percentage and sand save, but coastal golf has always been where the American receives his best chance to thrive. We can only hope that the public panics a little to the recent form around Noren and Wise. Any potential leverage would make either option two of the better plays on the board.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Early thoughts on the group: 

Taylor Pendrith ($8,900) - You will think of distance-heavy courses when I talk about Taylor Pendrith or Cameron Davis in this section, but the ability to club down has proven advantageous for both in the past. Pendrith ranked fifth in my model when recalculating the data to mimic scoring specifications for PGA National, and his top 10 grade on fast Bermuda adds the upside that we want to see at $8,900.

J.T. Poston ($8,800) or Jhonattan Vegas ($8,600) - I am not convinced Jhonattan Vegas becomes worth the ownership if he continues to trend as a top-three selection on the board. My model likes his value and price tag, but the negative trajectory does start to push him into cash-game territory over anything if we don't receive a rebate. I included him next to J.T. Poston since I am not sure I am going to go down that route either, but both are fringe selections as of Monday afternoon and will be kept in play until something changes. The lack of top 10s in the model might remove some of the win equity. Let's play this by ear. 

Cam Davis ($8,100) - Everyone knows I am always willing to play an under-owned Cameron Davis when the public goes the opposite direction. Davis' weighted scoring of fourth couldn't entirely undo the helter-skelter current form he is generating from an overall stature, but the upside is worth the squeeze in various game types, including as an outright at 50/1.

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

The list removes all players outside the top 60 in overall or upside rank + negative totals against their DraftKings price, upside, and ownership. We will break this list down more as ownership continues to trickle in over the next few days.

Early thoughts on the group: 

We will get more into this group of players later in the week in my 'Final DraftKings' article.

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

All the players below were inside the top 60 in one of the two iterations of my sheet and positive during either the differential against DraftKings price or ownership. You can use my model to get a complete field breakdown, but this condensed things nicely as a first run.

We will condense this list further as the week progresses, but we have a handful of interesting dart throws from those names.

Early thoughts on the group: Carl Yuan and Austin Eckroat are my two favorite plays of this group on Monday.

Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

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