RADIO
Scottie Scheffler seems unflappable at the moment and is striking the ball that is almost more elite than his Michael Jackson-like footwork through impact. He is looking to go back-to-back at the WM Pheonix Open, which ignited a run of four high-level victories in the middle of last year, capped off by his Masters victory. However, Jon Rahm is T2 and two shots back, hungry for World No. 1 status.
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model that is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.
You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership
Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Round 3 Ownership Analysis
Round 3 DraftKings Points
If you were looking for one more reason to join our discord as part of the premium package, with all the chaos of guys making cuts this morning minutes before lock, there were a few high-upside guys that fell through the cracks of most people's handicapping process including our showdown article yesterday, we dropped this little nugget in there once Sam Burns made the cut.
Highest scoring golfers and their ownership:
Round 3 Highest Ownership:
Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4:
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$10,000+
Jon Rahm will be high owned but relative Scottie Scheffler should be a great pivot off a golfer two shots ahead of him who is $400 cheaper. Rahm is also one of the best scorers in Round 4.
Rory McIlroy is sitting T28 and has the highest power ranking of the four $10K golfers. He is an elite birdie maker and has THE best R4 scorer and has the potential to be a slate breaker if he lands up in the teens ownership wise.
$9,000+
Max Homa has run out of a bit of juice but finds recently, but can easily be one of the best scorers tomorrow if he can tap into the stealthy scoring mode that we saw when he won the Farmers Insurance Open.
Justin Thomas is almost the leading birdie maker in the field and can easily explode up the leaderboard on a course that he has played magnificently on. His putter has just not showed up ... yet!
Tom Kim owns a fantastic birdie rate and loves himself some Sunday golf. He is the highest rated golfer in my model.
$8,000+
Hideki Matsuyama did wonderfully for us at the Farmers and his Round 4 scoring is easily the best of his splits. Do it again tomorrow, Deki. Viktor Hovland, Keegan Bradley and Sahith Theegala will also find themselves in my lineups, with Cameron Young sprinkled in there as a massive leverage play in low single digit ownerships.
$7,000+
Corey Conners and Matt Kuchar will be our low owned stalwarts in the $7k range. Seamus Power and Scott Stallings will be our chalkier picks in this range sitting T20 and ready to pounce up that leaderboard. Webb Simpson falls somewhere in the middle of these four guys and could potentially be the next of the "old dogs" to see a career renaissance after three reasonable rounds of golf relative to his recent form.
$6,000+
Taylor Pendrith is going to need another solid Round 4 similar to that of his Pebble Beach Monday finish. Nate Lashley, Brandon Wu, and James Hahn will round out our player pool.
Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!
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