RADIO
If I told you that a 45% owned Jon Rahm ($10 18 Entry contest) lost -1.34 strokes on approach today, we would assume it would have been a great day for those of us who faded Rahm in R2, but he still managed to score 50 points gaining 5 strokes on and around the greens, holing out for eagle from a bunker as part of a 3-bridie-streak. Nightmare fuel for half the field who are simply waiting for this man to have a bad round.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and more often than not this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Ownership Analysis
Top Points Scorers
Most Points For Those Not Yet Finished
Highest Owned Golfers
Going into Round 3, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in R2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 3 Weather
Lock is at 11ET tomorrow morning and the weather looks pretty windy for most of the day, with no real edge apparent. I am also getting real tired of trying to predict the weather as nobody seems to know when the wind will or won't blow in Scottsdale.
Round 3 Power Rankings
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for R3. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ball-park ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate (not enough people have finished / made the cut to accurately project ownership, so I may do that tomorrow as they near the end of their rounds).
The Chalk Squad
If a golfer has been playing well so far, he will be even more popular... See Rahm ownership above.
$10,000: Even though Rahm is $800 more than Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler who both outscored the Spaniard, there is a good chance he is still higher owned than both of them. So, we will take him on again with Scottie and Rory and try put together stronger lineups with the salaries we are saving. I would lean Scottie if I had to pick one, he shot -7 today gaining +1.2 strokes putting. His ball striking is at an extremely high level.
$9,000: Justin Thomas rinsed a tee shot into the water on a par 3 and I am sure the PGA wants to rinse out his mouth too after dropping a very audible F-bomb once his golf ball was destined to befriend the fish.
$8,000: Tom Kim will most likely play 2nd fiddle to Sungjae Im and Jason Day who are both ahead of him on the scoreboard. Kim is 84th in driving accuracy, which is something I was banking on seeing inside the top-10 all week. Regardless, he managed to salvage his round with the putter today and hopefully things heat up from the fairways for the Korean Killer.
$7,000: Nobody.
$6,000: Nobody.
The Pivot People
These guys find themselves in the middle of the leaderboard. Their round did not go entirely according to plan, and we are banking on them to bounce back tomorrow.
$10,000: Nobody.
$9,000: Tony Finau is just cruising along under the radar at -3 thru 12. If we can get a field-best round 3 from Big Tone like we did at the Farmers, we will be in business. Same goes for Max Homa who may get overshadowed by Xander too.
$8,000: Viktor Hovland made 6 birdies in R2. He also made 5 bogeys. The scoring was there, but it was a rollercoaster of a round. Sahith Theegala is one of the most volatile golfers on the planet, which makes him appealing at lower ownership.
$7,000: Brian Harman, Nate Lashley and Seamus Power and Hayden Buckley.
$6,000: Matt Kuchar.
The Leverage Lads
The lowest-owned golfers should give us the most leverage in a DFS Showdown slate.
$10,000: Nobody.
$9,000: If Collin Morikawa makes the cut.
$8,000: Keegan Bradley
$7,000: Joel Dahmen, Billy Horschel.
$6,000: Kurt Kitayama managed to sneak through the cut line along with Webb Simpson and Trey Mullinax. Kelly Kraft at $6,100 is appealing if his putter can cook it up on the greens.
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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