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Happy Holidays RotoBallers! Hopefully, you're able to spend the weekend with your loved ones, but if you manage to sneak in some time for football, there is no better way to celebrate than by joining some contests offered by our friends at No House Advantage!
Typically, we take a look at the early contests on Sunday in this column, but with only three games scheduled on Christmas Day, we'll be discussing some of my favorite player props for Saturday's jam-packed slate. There are a total of nine Pick 'Em contests currently available, including some for the afternoon and night games on Christmas Eve. These contests range from just $5-$15 per entry and will place you against other players for your chance to win some cash prizes!
Additionally, No House Advantage is offering a VS. THE HOUSE contest to win up to 21x your money if your prop picks are correct. We'll get into some of my favorite props for Saturday's early slate Pick 'Em contests, but we'll first review how to play for those that are new to No House Advantage.
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How to Play on No House Advantage
The first step is to sign up for an account with code BALLER and claim your free deposit match (and RotoBaller Premium Pass). Then choose your DFS player props contest. Whether or not you want to play against a larger or smaller field is entirely up to you, as is the entry fee you wish to pay. Then, you select 10 player props you like, deciding to bet the over or the under, and ranking them in order of confidence.
For example, if you think Justin Jefferson will continue his dominance and easily top the century mark in yardage this week, you would select Jefferson's 99.5 receiving yards prop as your 10-point selection. Note that it is still possible to win some cash with an incorrect choice or two, but the number of points your misses cost you will be critical.
Once all of Saturday's early games are wrapped up, total points will be calculated for all entries in the contest and winnings will be distributed to the top performers. Contests like this make No House Advantage an extremely unique and fun DFS site, and we’re here to give you some ideas for your early slate picks.
Higher Confidence Picks - Week 16 Saturday Early Slate
Amari Cooper (vs NO) under 56.5 receiving yards
I was torn between selecting the under on Amari Cooper's yardage total and his 4.5 receptions total as I think both are excellent picks. Cooper has not eclipsed five receptions once in his three games with Deshaun Watson under center and has averaged just 46.7 receiving yards per contest since Week 13.
This week, the Browns will take on the New Orleans Saints, who have been a middle-of-the-pack defense against wide receivers this season. The matchup isn't what scares me off of Cooper on Saturday, though. You'll notice a common thread amongst many of the props suggested in this article: the weather is going to be a huge factor this weekend.
The forecast for kickoff in Cleveland on Saturday calls for a frigid temperature of 12 degrees that will feel more like -10 degrees with projected winds up to 29 miles per hour. There is also a chance of some snowfall during the game. In other words, the passing options in this weather should not be relied upon, especially with the Browns' offense already struggling to find a rhythm with Watson as QB1.
Cooper just barely surpassed this line last Saturday with 58 receiving yards but had a softer matchup against the Baltimore Ravens in far better conditions. Sportsbooks clearly aren't expecting much out of the receiving threats in this one, either, with Cooper's yardage prop sitting at around 32.5 on many of them.
Gabe Davis (vs CHI) under 52.5 receiving yards
Similarly to Cooper, this yardage line would feel about right for Gabe Davis in normal circumstances but is simply too high given the elements he will be forced to play in this week. The Bills will travel to Chicago to take on the Bears in, once again, less-than-ideal weather conditions. The temperature is expected to be around 12 degrees with wind gusting up to 22 miles per hour.
I also considered highlighting an under selection for Stefon Diggs, but Diggs is the obvious centerpiece of Buffalo's passing attack and could surpass his given lines in any competitive bout. Davis, on the other hand, has not seen a particularly high volume of targets this season and has frequently posted underwhelming statistical performances.
The third-year pro has had his best moments when targeted down the field for explosive scoring plays. Josh Allen is definitely one of the only quarterbacks in the league that could throw a 50-yard dart regardless of the weather, but I wouldn't bank on it on Saturday. Both teams could rely on the running game and the mobility of their signal-callers rather than take any chances throwing a bomb into the wind.
Weather aside, this has not been a consistent yardage total for Davis to reach, as he has done so in just six of 13 games this season. He finished with 56 yards against the Dolphins last week but recorded fewer than 40 receiving yards in each of the three weeks prior.
Other sportsbooks have Davis' yardage line at around 36.5, with Diggs being the only receiving option in this game with a line above 50 yards.
Alvin Kamara (vs CLE) over 65.5 rushing yards
I had a high amount of confidence in Kamara last week, and I'm excited to go right back to him after he pulled through against the Atlanta Falcons. Kamara will again have a juicy matchup against the Cleveland Browns, who allow over 133 rushing yards per game as the eighth-worst run defense in the league this year.
I already highlighted the horrid weather conditions for this contest when discussing Amari Cooper above, so we can skip the details and just remind ourselves that this could be an ugly game for each team's passing attack. What we will go into specifics on, is why the passing attack looks even uglier for the Saints than it does for the Browns.
New Orleans will be without stud rookie wideout Chris Olave and veteran Jarvis Landry. Its receiving corps will be headlined by Rashid Shaheed and Tre'Quan Smith with Juwan Johnson likely seeing a fair amount of targets at the tight end position. All three have turned in solid performances at various points this season, but don't necessarily inspire a ton of confidence as featured weapons in a passing offense.
If the Saints lean on their running game, it will be Kamara getting the bulk of the team's carries with Taysom Hill and David Johnson handling a few attempts each. The former All-Pro has been inconsistent in 2022 but crushed this line with 91 rushing yards on 21 carries in Week 15. Expect Kamara to find success yet again with a great matchup, poor weather conditions, and a lack of healthy receivers all creating a perfect storm for New Orleans to focus on the run.
Lower Confidence Picks - Week 16 Saturday Early Slate
Travis Kelce (vs SEA) over 75.5 receiving yards
Finally, a game in which the weather shouldn't impact the results too much. Don't get me wrong, it's going to be extremely cold at Arrowhead Stadium, but there will be sun, no expected precipitation, and less wind than in many other areas. We'll take it.
In a position devoid of consistent offensive production, Travis Kelce has been a unicorn throughout his career. His age 33 season has been no different as the tight end has averaged almost 82 receiving yards on 6.5 receptions per game in 2022.
Kelce had a few mediocre showings by his standards after Week 11 but bounced back with 10 receptions for 105 yards against the Houston Texans last week. He'll have an equally enticing matchup on Saturday against the Seattle Seahawks, who have surrendered 909 yards to tight ends this season, third-most in the league. Most recently, Seattle was destroyed by George Kittle in Week 15 as the 49ers star erupted for 93 yards and two touchdowns after three consecutive down games.
This showdown is one of the only games this week with a projected point total nearing 50. I wouldn't expect the Seahawks to keep pace with the Chiefs, especially without Tyler Lockett in the lineup, but Kansas City was taken to overtime by the Houston Texans last week and barely held off the Denver Broncos from making a comeback the week prior. Assuming this is a somewhat competitive duel, Kelce should be plenty utilized to reach 76 receiving yards with ease.
D'Onta Foreman (vs DET) under 58.5 rushing yards
In another game that weather shouldn't have much of an impact on, I predict D'Onta Foreman's struggles from last week will continue against the hottest run defense in the NFL. It's hard to believe I'm saying that about the Detroit Lions, but it's absolutely correct.
The Lions have allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league over the past three weeks. Travis Etienne Jr. was held to 54 rushing yards while Trevor Lawrence added 32 against Detroit back in Week 13. Dalvin Cook and the Vikings accumulated only 22 rushing yards in Week 14. The Jets, who had found plenty of success with Zonovan Knight in recent weeks, were limited to 50 total rushing yards in Week 15.
Foreman was bottled up against the Steelers as he totaled just nine yards on 10 carries last Sunday. Although he continues to out-touch Chuba Hubbard, the second-year man has been rather impressive as of late. Hubbard was also ineffective on the ground last week but still gave the Panthers a spark as a receiving threat out of the backfield.
Aside from having a surging run defense, there are two other things we know about this Lions team. They can put up points, and they can give up a ton of yards through the air. Detroit could easily get out to an early lead on Saturday, and we saw what happened last week when Carolina trailed Pittsburgh early as they were forced to abandon the run. Hubbard played on a season-high of 63 percent of the team's snaps while Foreman was on the field for just 30 percent.
The Panthers may very well find, out of necessity or not, that they can move the ball via the passing game on the Lions. In this scenario, Foreman will likely be a victim of the game script and will not see the opportunities needed to tally 59 rushing yards on a stingy run defense.
Demarcus Robinson (vs ATL) over 3.5 receptions
I don't feel great about betting on the Ravens' offense with Tyler Huntley at the helm, but he has to throw to somebody. Of course, Mark Andrews is the option that fantasy gamers are hoping will produce, but Demarcus Robinson has been the one racking up catches with Lamar Jackson injured.
Huntley took over at quarterback early in Week 13. Robinson has totaled seven, five, and six receptions since. Anthony Brown replaced Huntley in the second half of Week 14, but the two hooked up for just two of Robinson's 16 receptions over the past three weeks. Robinson's already-solid target share may even increase as the team received another tough injury break earlier this week.
Unfortunately, third-year wideout Devin Duvernay was placed on Injured Reserve after suffering a broken bone in his foot during practice. Duvernay was not heavily involved in the passing game the last two weeks, but he was still seeing the field far more than any other receiver besides Robinson.
Robinson's main target competition, aside from the tight ends, will now come in the form of 36-year-old DeSean Jackson, Sammy Watkins, and James Proche. With the chemistry he has already established with Huntley, I have a fair amount of confidence that Robinson can haul in four passes as the unquestioned WR1 in a plus matchup with the Falcons.
Week 16 Picks - Sample Pick 'Em Entry
Below is a sample Pick 'Em entry for the Week 16 early slate on No House Advantage. Hopefully, this will give you some helpful insight.
You can enter NFL Pick 'Em contests now on No House Advantage as well. Be sure to use code BALLER when signing up for your free $50 deposit match, and a free RotoBaller Premium Pass!
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