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Week 7 of NFL action is only a day away and it's time to start making those NFL player prop bets! There are a lot of high-powered offenses with byes this week, but still plenty of good spots to target with player props!
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In this article, I'll be providing my favorite NFL betting picks for week seven of the 2022 NFL season. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the week as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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Thunder Dan's Best Bets: 2022 NFL Season
- Last Week's Props: 4-6
- Season-to-Date Props: 20-28
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NFL Betting Picks: Player Props for Week 6
PASSING/RUSHING/RECEIVING YARDS
Lamar Jackson over 1.5 passing TDs (+105 DK)
Jackson has 10 of his 13 passing touchdowns in the red zone this season. After going 3-3-4 to start the year with passing TDs, he’s only had one in each of his last three starts. This spot is a great one for him and the Ravens’ passing game to get back on track. The Browns have allowed 4 red zone trips per game this season to opponents, tied for most in the league!
Taylor Heinicke under 220.5 passing yards (-115 DK)
Heinicke is replacing Wentz as the starter and the Commanders are showing signs of a major shift in their offensive identity. Wentz attempted only 22 passes in the Washington 12-7 win last Thursday night as they ran the football more, feeding Brian Robinson Jr. 17 carries and Antonio Gibson still had 5.
The Packers allow the least passing yards per game and also have a vulnerable run defense, meaning I would expect the Commanders to run, run, run as much as possible and allow Heinicke to ease back into the starting gig.
Matt Ryan over 252.5 passing yards (-115 DK)
Matty Ice has had to throw it more than the Colts would probably like and you’d think that they get back to pounding the ball with Jonathan Taylor this week, right?
I don’t think it’s that simple. The Titans have the #3 DVOA-ranked run defense and the 28th-ranked DVOA pass defense, meaning they are funneling production to opposing passing games. They’re allowing just over 100 yards per game total to opposing backs while they’ve also allowed the MOST passing yards per game to opponents (287.6).
We saw this play out in their first match-up where the Colts were playing from behind and Ryan threw for a whopping 356 yards in that one.
Brian Robinson over 51.5 rushing yards (-120 DK)
Robinson was fed 17 carries last week and produced 60 yards and a score. The Commanders are going to pound the football at home against Green Bay to try to keep Rodgers and his offense off the field, as they should. Green Bay’s run defense has surrendered 135 rushing yards per game, the sixth most of any NFL team. This number is too low for Robinson and his role as the early-down workhorse.
Josh Jacobs over 105.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 DK)
Only Saquon Barkley has more (129/game) scrimmage yards per game than Jacobs (123/game) this season. He’s been a monster in the run game lately, but also has five catches in each of the last three weeks for over 30 yards each of those games.
Houston’s run defense is abysmal, ranking 29th in rush DVOA and allowing the third-most rushing yards per game to opponents.
I like grabbing the total scrimmage yards prop here in case he does happen to get slowed down in the run game, his receiving total could carry him the rest of the way.
NOT POSTED YET, BUT I WANT EKELER'S RUSHING+RECEIVING PROP IF Keenan Allen DOESN'T SUIT UP.
Anytime Touchdowns
Joe Mixon (-145 DK)
Josh Jacobs (-135 DK)
Mixon has an incredible 15 carries inside the 10-yard line and only one touchdown - how is that even possible? Atlanta allows an average of 4 red zone trips per game, so he will have opportunities for sure.
Jacobs has 11 attempts inside the ten and has turned those into 3 scores, but there is still some positive regression coming for him there, too, and I already talked about how much I love his match-up.
You can parlay these together for some nice odds at +194 on DraftKings.
Receptions
Mark Andrews over 5.5 (-115 DK)
Andrews is averaging 6.5 catches per game and has hit this number in all but one game (Buffalo = bad match-up) this season. Yes, some of the other receivers are getting healthy but Andrews is still the first to get fed in this offense. As long as he’s playing, I am betting on his production.
Brandon Aiyuk over 4.5 (-105 DK)
Aiyuk has not been near as consistent but busted out for 8 catches last week when San Fran was forced to throw after going down 14-0 in that game. I think they could easily play from behind again here against KC and this number is too low if Jimmy G has to air it out 35+ times.
Romeo Doubs AND Allen Lazard o4.5 (+110, +100 DK)
The Packers should be forced to throw it here as the Commanders have the fourth-best run defense DVOA this season. Both Doubs and Lazard saw 9 targets last week in a similar situation for Green Bay as they faced a good Jets run defense. Both guys have beatable matchups and there is no Randall Cobb for Green Bay either. If one of them hits and the other doesn’t, you get your money back. If they both catch five balls, we double up nicely.
I hope you find my picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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