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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/14/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Thursday RotoBallers, it's Division Series time and we're back for another day of MLB Postseason betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 postseason!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Wednesday, October 12, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
Playoffs: 5-4 (-0.16 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Yankees
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: NYY -148
CLE: Shane Bieber | NYY: Nestor Cortes
We bounced back on Tuesday after getting a bit unlucky the few days prior. We've got three plays on the slate today due to yesterday's rainout in New York, and we'll start with there for our first play of the day this afternoon.
The visiting Guardians will send Shane Bieber (13-8, 2.88 ERA) to the mound. While Bieber figured it out over the course of the season, he's not the guy he once was. However, while he doesn't have the overpowering stuff he used to, he's been able to effectively miss bats. While he didn't make a start against the Yankees this season, my model projects the Yankees to get to him early and often this afternoon, as they come in with a 33.34% hard contact rate and a .465 wOBA + ISO projection against his pitch types.
Conversely, the Yankees will send Nestor Cortes (12-4, 2.44 ERA) to the mound. I wrote Cortes up in my MLB DFS article from yesterday, obviously before the game ended up being postponed, and I'll back him today as well. Cortes made two starts against Cleveland this season, tossing 12.1 innings and allowing just three runs while striking out 14. Cleveland projects to just a 25.52% hard contact rate and .271 wOBA + ISO against his pitch types.
My model gives the Yankees a clear advantage here, at least on paper. While the bullpens are relatively even, I don't trust the Yanks' back end of the bullpen to hold this one together in the late innings. With that said, I'll take the Yankees F5 money line, which FanDuel Sportsbook has at -148.
Pick: Yankees F5 Money Line (-148) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Dodgers
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SD +104
LAD: Tony Gonsolin | SD: Blake Snell
We'll head out to San Diego for our second play of the day. We'll be taking another strikeout prop here, and while we bet the over on Darvish's strikeouts on Tuesday, we'll be taking the under on his teammate Blake Snell's strikeouts tonight.
Blake Snell is as volatile as they come. He may spite me for making this pick and go out there and strike out 13 Dodgers tonight for all I know. He's certainly capable of it, but I don't think that will be the case. The Dodgers are better against lefties this season than in years past, and while Snell did shut them out across five innings back on September 27, he did allow five earned runs against them just 17 days prior.
Snell has eclipsed the seven-strikeout mark in just two of his last five starts and hasn't hit the number since September 20 against the Cardinals. He did have a run of hitting the number in four out of five starts before that, but the one game he didn't was against this same Dodgers lineup. He's hit the number in one of three starts against the Dodgers this season, way back on July 1 when he struck out twelve.
FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us solid value, with the under sitting at -132. While I wish it was closer to -110 or even plus money, I'm still liking the number here as I have Snell projected for just 5.66 strikeouts tonight. As I mentioned earlier, he's too volatile and isn't efficient enough to go deep into games. If he gets in early trouble I can surely see him pulled in the 4th or 5th inning in what will be a pivotal game three in this series.
Pick: Blake Snell u6.5 Strikeouts (-132) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you in tomorrow!
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